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000 
FXUS65 KABQ 181134 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
534 AM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A weak upper level wave over southern CA this morning will move east
across AZ thru tonight. High clouds will continue streaming eastward
over NM ahead of this system. Light winds today will give way to a 
southerly component tonight. Mid level cloud decks between 10-12kft 
will develop eastward into southern and western NM aft 08Z. Light 
rain showers are possible by sunrise along and west of the Cont Dvd. 
The more active weather period will come Thursday afternoon along and
south of the I-40 corridor.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...322 AM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly sunny weather with some high cirrus over southern and western
New Mexico today. Highs will be several degrees above average.
Increased moisture into southern and central New Mexico will lead to
afternoon storms tomorrow, focusing off the high terrain of the
central mountains first before shifting to central valley locales and
the eastern plains Thursday evening. A Pacific cold front arrives
Saturday, dropping temperatures for the weekend and providing some
shower and light snow over the northern mountains. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
It's been another dry and clear night across the Land of Enchantment,
with many valley locales experiencing localized temperature
inversions. A weak and remnant disturbance will work its way over SW
New Mexico today where a few isold storms could develop over the 
Mogollon this afternoon. Otherwise, Wednesday will again be mostly 
sunny with high cirrus being the main noticeable weather feature. 
Highs will generally by 5-10F above normal today. 

Another trough will approach western New Mexico Thursday, with
southerly low level flow entering SE and south-central NM ahead of
the trough, increasing low level moisture. This will help spur sct-
num afternoon tstorms over the south-central mtns with storm activity
spreading into the central valley and eastern plains later in the
evening hours. The expected cloud cover will limit daytime highs to
at or a nudge below avg. The NAM12 continues to be the most bullish
with the highest instability, showing CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg
over the RGV in Socorro county. This could lend to a few storms 
producing hail and strong downburst winds. Some patchy fog will be
possible over southern and southeastern locales Fri morning from
remnant moisture. 

Westerly zonal flow arrives Fri ahead of the next Pacific trough this
weekend. Conditions dry out considerably across the west Fri, with
southerly flow keeping the east relatively moist. Winds increase
across the west and east Fri afternoon, turning NW Saturday as the 
front approaches. Models continue to show a fast moving frontal 
passage Saturday with precip. localized to the northern mtns where 
high elevation snow will likely dust the mtn tops. Temperatures fall 
below average behind the front Sat and Sun. 

The 00Z GFS is back to developing a closed low over TX Monday while 
the ECMWF has remained consistent from yesterday's runs showing the 
trough continuing into the SE U.S. Both hold onto a strong ridge 
building off the SoCAL coast and into the desert SW. This will lend 
to a warming trend Monday, with a backdoor front cooling off the 
eastern plains Tuesday. Long range, models are showing fairly benign
weather with the ridge shifting and weakening over the Rockies for
mid-late next week. 

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High clouds streaming into NM today are signaling the approach of a 
low pressure system currently over southern CA. Low level moisture 
will seep northward today while clouds continue to thicken. Minimum
RH values will trend several points higher today and high temps will 
be similar to Tuesday. Ventilation will remain poor to fair for most
of the region with overall light winds. Moisture will increase more 
tonight as the low pressure system crosses over AZ. RH recoveries 
will trend much higher with even a few showers possible by morning
over the west central and southwest high terrain.

The greatest change to the forecast occurred Thursday as latest 
models continue trending wetter. The coverage of wetting rainfall 
looks more impressive along and south of the I-40 corridor where 
higher terrain areas may pick up 0.25-0.50" rainfall amounts. The 
drier low level airmass initially will still favor gusty and erratic 
outflow winds, particularly in the Rio Grande Valley. RH recoveries 
Friday morning will be excellent over a large area with even some 
patchy fog possible. 

West/southwest flow will increase Friday behind the departing wave. 
Widespread breezy conditions are likely with windy conditions over 
the far western high terrain and the northeast plains. Ventilation 
will finally improve to excellent all areas. Ridge top winds will 
stay breezy Friday night as a larger upper level trough approaches 
from the Great Basin. Winds will turn sharply north/northwest over 
NM and cold advection will trend temps closer to or slightly below 
normal. Some light rain/snow showers are expected for the northern 
high terrain with little accumulation. Subfreezing temps are likely 
again for northern and western NM with widespread 30s elsewhere for 
Sunday morning.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

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