Scientific Forecaster Discussion
000 FXUS65 KABQ 181134 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 534 AM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE A weak upper level wave over southern CA this morning will move east across AZ thru tonight. High clouds will continue streaming eastward over NM ahead of this system. Light winds today will give way to a southerly component tonight. Mid level cloud decks between 10-12kft will develop eastward into southern and western NM aft 08Z. Light rain showers are possible by sunrise along and west of the Cont Dvd. The more active weather period will come Thursday afternoon along and south of the I-40 corridor. Guyer && .PREV DISCUSSION...322 AM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017... .SYNOPSIS... Mostly sunny weather with some high cirrus over southern and western New Mexico today. Highs will be several degrees above average. Increased moisture into southern and central New Mexico will lead to afternoon storms tomorrow, focusing off the high terrain of the central mountains first before shifting to central valley locales and the eastern plains Thursday evening. A Pacific cold front arrives Saturday, dropping temperatures for the weekend and providing some shower and light snow over the northern mountains. && .DISCUSSION... It's been another dry and clear night across the Land of Enchantment, with many valley locales experiencing localized temperature inversions. A weak and remnant disturbance will work its way over SW New Mexico today where a few isold storms could develop over the Mogollon this afternoon. Otherwise, Wednesday will again be mostly sunny with high cirrus being the main noticeable weather feature. Highs will generally by 5-10F above normal today. Another trough will approach western New Mexico Thursday, with southerly low level flow entering SE and south-central NM ahead of the trough, increasing low level moisture. This will help spur sct- num afternoon tstorms over the south-central mtns with storm activity spreading into the central valley and eastern plains later in the evening hours. The expected cloud cover will limit daytime highs to at or a nudge below avg. The NAM12 continues to be the most bullish with the highest instability, showing CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg over the RGV in Socorro county. This could lend to a few storms producing hail and strong downburst winds. Some patchy fog will be possible over southern and southeastern locales Fri morning from remnant moisture. Westerly zonal flow arrives Fri ahead of the next Pacific trough this weekend. Conditions dry out considerably across the west Fri, with southerly flow keeping the east relatively moist. Winds increase across the west and east Fri afternoon, turning NW Saturday as the front approaches. Models continue to show a fast moving frontal passage Saturday with precip. localized to the northern mtns where high elevation snow will likely dust the mtn tops. Temperatures fall below average behind the front Sat and Sun. The 00Z GFS is back to developing a closed low over TX Monday while the ECMWF has remained consistent from yesterday's runs showing the trough continuing into the SE U.S. Both hold onto a strong ridge building off the SoCAL coast and into the desert SW. This will lend to a warming trend Monday, with a backdoor front cooling off the eastern plains Tuesday. Long range, models are showing fairly benign weather with the ridge shifting and weakening over the Rockies for mid-late next week. 24 && .FIRE WEATHER... High clouds streaming into NM today are signaling the approach of a low pressure system currently over southern CA. Low level moisture will seep northward today while clouds continue to thicken. Minimum RH values will trend several points higher today and high temps will be similar to Tuesday. Ventilation will remain poor to fair for most of the region with overall light winds. Moisture will increase more tonight as the low pressure system crosses over AZ. RH recoveries will trend much higher with even a few showers possible by morning over the west central and southwest high terrain. The greatest change to the forecast occurred Thursday as latest models continue trending wetter. The coverage of wetting rainfall looks more impressive along and south of the I-40 corridor where higher terrain areas may pick up 0.25-0.50" rainfall amounts. The drier low level airmass initially will still favor gusty and erratic outflow winds, particularly in the Rio Grande Valley. RH recoveries Friday morning will be excellent over a large area with even some patchy fog possible. West/southwest flow will increase Friday behind the departing wave. Widespread breezy conditions are likely with windy conditions over the far western high terrain and the northeast plains. Ventilation will finally improve to excellent all areas. Ridge top winds will stay breezy Friday night as a larger upper level trough approaches from the Great Basin. Winds will turn sharply north/northwest over NM and cold advection will trend temps closer to or slightly below normal. Some light rain/snow showers are expected for the northern high terrain with little accumulation. Subfreezing temps are likely again for northern and western NM with widespread 30s elsewhere for Sunday morning. Guyer && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.