Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kabq 241149 aaa
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
549 am MDT sun Sep 24 2017
12z taf cycle
satellite imagery and surface obs before sunrise showing widespread
IFR and MVFR low cigs across eastern nm. Some breaks are beginning
to develop along the western periphery and this trend will continue
as winds slowly veer toward the southwest aft 15z. Once low clouds
clear the eastern plains a very nice day is on tap thru about 00z.
Guidance sloshes moisture back toward the Pecos Valley thru sunset
while rain showers/thunderstorms and rain form in the area from krow to ktcc. This activity
will likely persist all night but will just carry vcsh at this time
until timing of actual ts impacts can be determined by later shifts.
Previous discussion...312 am MDT sun Sep 24 2017...
drier weather today with a few scattered storms again across the
eastern plains. Very dry air will allow overnight lows Monday
morning to drop to near or below freezing west of the Continental
Divide. A backdoor front will spark another round of afternoon
storms Monday across the east and Central Mountain chain. Storm
coverage expands west Tuesday and Wednesday with daytime highs
remaining below normal all week.
the main burst of showers and storms over eastern nm has shifted east
into Texas this morning. Much drier air has moved into western Texas
behind a sfc cold front, allowing far western locales to likely see
30s for lows this morning. The upper low over Utah will begin to exit
to the NE into the northern rockies today, with Gulf moisture
hanging on over the far eastern plains. A round of scattered storms
is possible across the eastern third of the state today. The western
two thirds of the state will remain very dry.
The much drier environment west of the Continental Divide, where
dewpoints will be in the teens, combined with strong radiational
cooling, will allow for lows Monday morning to dip to near or below
freezing. Across the east, a backdoor front will slide into eastern
nm pushing to the central mtn chain, replenishing sfc moisture into
central nm. This will spark a round afternoon convection over eastern
nm along the frontal bdry, and over the central mtn chain.
A new trough will also begin to deepen over the Arizona/California border Monday,
staying put and strengthening to a closed low by Wednesday. This
will allow the remnant backdoor bdry to essentially be sucked into
western nm Tuesday, and into Arizona Wednesday. The position of the low
will focus upper divergence squarely over nm Wednesday, and with the
replenished sfc moisture over the entire state, will allow for a very
healthy batch of afternoon storms over New Mexico Wednesday. The
upper low will begin to weaken and push north/NE Thursday. Storm coverage
shouldn't be to much less Thursday, except across the SW mtns.
Daytime highs will trend below average all week, especially across
the east behind the backdoor front where highs will be 10-15 degrees
below average. Overnight lows will remain close to average, except
for northwest New Mexico, including Gallup and Farmington for today and
Monday morning where lows will be up to 10-12 degrees below average.
showers and storms are slowly ending over eastern nm as the deeper
moisture and instability shifts east into Texas. The upper level wave
responsible for the active weather will bring only a brief respite
today before more storms fire up late today across the plains. The
western half of the area is however very dry with dewpoints in the
low teens west of the Rio Grande Valley. Min relative humidity values today will
fall into the 10-15% range west of the cont Divide but winds will
remain below critical levels. Strong radiational cooling tonight
will make way for the coldest temps of the season with widespread
20s and 30s for northern and western nm.
A back door frontal boundary will slide into eastern nm Monday and
focus yet another round of showers and storms east of the central Mt
chain. These storms will again have potential to produce locally
heavy rainfall. Meanwhile, the western half of nm sees a near repeat
of today with min relative humidity into the 10-15% range with subcritical winds.
Convective outflows from the east and a deepening upper low to our
west will help draw moisture through the Rio Grande Valley west to
the cont Divide Monday night. This will set the stage for a longer
duration period of elevated moisture levels, cloud cover, and much
cooler temps for the remainder of the week.
Guidance is beginning to come into better agreement that a strong
upper level wave will take shape over southwestern Arizona Wednesday and
force a deep tap of moisture over nm through Thursday. Widespread
moderate to locally heavy rainfall is possible for the entire area.
Unsettled weather may continue through the end of the week depending
on how fast the upper wave ejects out of the area. Vent rates during
this period will be poor all areas. Temperatures will average 5 to
10 degrees below normal as well.
freeze watch from late tonight through Monday morning for the
following zones... nmz501.