Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kabq 241124
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
524 am MDT Wed may 24 2017
12z taf cycle
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours across northern and
central New Mexico. West and northwest surface winds will become
gusty this afternoon. Some places will gust into tonight as winds
aloft strengthen in response to response to an upper level low
pressure system crossing the northern rockies.
Previous discussion...327 am MDT Wed may 24 2017...
warm and dry in the short term, then becoming increasingly unsettled
through the Holiday weekend. A ridge of high pressure will build
over nm today only to be shoved east and south Thursday by a trough
of low pressure arriving today onto the Pacific northwest coast.
Winds will increase sharply Thursday over the area with very dry
air, increasing the concern for critical fire weather conditions. A
weak back door cold front will slip into the northeast Thursday
night, but probably not make much progress south or west. Instead,
Friday will be another warm and dry day. As we go into the Memorial
Day weekend we will shift gears to a more active pattern. A strong
back door front will blast south across the eastern plains Saturday
and west into the Rio Grande Valley Saturday night. Increasing low
level moisture will begin to spark some showers and thunderstorms
Saturday over the northern mountains and northeast and they will
continue through Sunday, then spread south and west Monday and
Tuesday. A trough parked along the West Coast will continue to draw
moisture north into nm during the middle of next week.
a fine day is shaping up across the land of enchantment with lots of
sunshine and warm temperatures, up to 20 degrees warmer than Tuesday.
Moderate breezes will be confined to the western high terrain and
east Central Highlands. An upper level high pressure ridge will move
across nm today but quickly exit east and south tonight and
Thursday, thanks to a trough of low pressure moving into the Pacific
northwest today, then tracking east Thursday. The flow aloft will
strengthen and mix down to the surface Thursday, triggering
widespread breezy to windy conditions. Some of these winds will
reach advisory levels across the central into the northeast
Highlands. High temperatures will remain above normal, especially in
Another West Coast trough will approach Friday and cross the state
Saturday. Breezy to windy conditions will persist for most areas
while temperatures drop a little, but still mainly above normal.
While Friday will remain dry, our first decent chance at some rain
will come Saturday, in the northern mountains and northeast. The
upper trough mentioned above will cross Saturday, followed quickly
by a sharp back door cold front later Saturday through early Sunday,
pressing south through all of the eastern plains and likely spilling
into the Rio Grande Valley. The northern mountains into the
northeast will remain the favored areas for convection Sunday. A
weak short wave trough will slip across nm Sunday night, reinforcing
the cooler and more moist air across the east and central areas of
the County Warning Area for Sunday night and Memorial Day. Thus shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase and spread across these areas,
and continue on Tuesday and Wednesday, with Monday through Wednesday
the most active days of the forecast period. High will generally be
below normal from Sunday going forward.
..critical fire weather conditions expected mainly across central
and southern areas Thursday and Friday...
A ridge of high pressure will cross aloft today allowing high
temperatures to warm 10 to 20 degrees above yesterday's readings.
Winds will be gusty in the afternoon, and there will probably be a
few hours of locally critical fire weather conditions from Las Vegas
to Clines Corners and Vaughn.
A critical fire weather pattern will establish Thursday and Friday,
when an upper level trough passing north of New Mexico will cause
winds aloft to strengthen and humidities to plummet. Although very
low humidities and strong surface winds are possible areawide both
days, the most critical fire conditions are expected across central
and southern areas, where soil moisture will generally drop below
25% and the dryness level will be 3 or higher in spots. The
northwest plateau will be included in thursday's red flag warning
because winds will be a bit stronger on Thursday allowing critical
fire weather conditions to be more widespread and persistent there;
plus the dryness level will be high. However, somewhat weaker winds
on Friday will decrease the coverage and duration of critical fire
weather conditions across the northwest plateau, and the dryness
level will drop to 2, so that area is not included in friday's Fire
Friday night and Saturday a Pacific cold front will cross from the
west allowing temperatures to drop to near and below normal, and
humidities to increase. Winds will also weaken Saturday as the upper
level trough begins to shift east of The Rockies. A gusty back door
cold front will then plunge southward through the east Saturday
afternoon and night with a chance for showers and thunderstorms
mainly from the northern mountains eastward. After widespread Haines
of 6 during the latter half of the current week, the back door cold
front will usher Haines near 3 into the east for Sunday.
Haines will continue to moderate areawide early in the coming work
week as an upper level low pressure system slowly approaches the
upper Baja Peninsula drawing a moist return flow of low level
moisture over New Mexico from the southeast. An increasing chance
of showers and thunderstorms looks to favor locations east of the
Continental Divide Monday and Monday night, but storms should be
able to spread west of The Divide starting Tuesday.
red flag warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Thursday for the following
Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for