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fxus65 kabq 261133 aaa 

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
533 am MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

12z taf cycle
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist outside of
isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon/evening.
Forecast probabilities too low today to include storms in a FM or
tempo group at taf sites, but klvs and ktcc would be terminals more
likely to be impacted. Short-lived MVFR conditions are possible with
showers and storms today.



Previous discussion...314 am MDT Wed Jul 26 2017...
thunderstorm coverage will be on the lighter side during much of the
day but look for a significant increase tonight across the northeast
third due to a cold frontal surge. The front will ultimately kick
off an active thunderstorm period which is expected to last through
Friday night. Western and northern portions of the state will be
favored. The Albuquerque and Santa Fe Metro areas could experience
widespread significant rainfall Thursday into Thursday night. A
drying and warming trend from southeast to northwest is expected
during the weekend before another frontal boundary pushes into the
area early next week.


modeling looks to be rather consistent for the near term. Less
coverage to start out today but then increasing storm activity across
the northeast tonight. All of the models show a back door cold
frontal boundary intruding into NE areas tonight. There has been
waffling in terms of quantitative precipitation forecast amounts associated with the boundary but
expecting significant rainfall across the far NE. Once again..decided
to expand and move the higher pops a little further south than what
the models are showing. Wanted to account for convectively enhanced
outflows and the anticipation that the boundary convergence would
move further south. Would consider a Flash Flood Watch for the NE
during the overnight into thur morning hours but soil moisture values
arent overly saturated across the plains portion. Western Colfax,
Mora and San Miguel counties will need to be watched...soil moisture
a little higher there and there is more topography to deal with.

It appears that the stage will be set for a heightened 24 to 48 hour
period that increases the threat for localized flash flooding. Models
continue to show a strong mid level deformation zone developing over
the forecast area thur and lasting through Fri night. Significant
precipitable water values will be found within the deformation zone
creating a high end moisture flux. Storms that do develop will be
slow to move and precipitation efficiency will be high. This could
end up being a more tropical environment where lightning isn't as
much of a indicator for significant rainfall rates. Both NAM and GFS
are forecasting precipitable water values between 1.50 to 1.65 over the abq Metro
area thur evening. Those values basically beat the daily record and
nearly all time record. A Flash Flood Watch is very possible but
these conditions can be very finicky and would like to hone down on
the main convective area...especially concerning where some of the
sunnier breaks can occur within the anticipated thicker cloud cover
thur. Will go ahead and issue a Special Weather Statement to
highlight the potential threat...especially emphasizing urban areas
like Santa Fe and Albuquerque.

Models in agreement with starting the atmospheric drying process
from southeast to northwest Friday with lasting impacts into the
weekend. Still believe that the deformation zone will kick off some
significant convection especially along the drier precipitable water transition so
localized flash flooding will remain a threat favoring the northern
third to half Fri into Fri night. A much more pronounced drying trend
should occur during the weekend favoring the southeast half. Fussed with
pops a tad to account for this trend. Models seem to be in agreement
which raises confidence levels. Looks like a pronounced mid level dry
intrusion and some higher level stability is responsible for that

A return to a more active thunderstorm regime is expected early next
week. Once again, there has been some model consistency in the
depiction of another frontal surge starting across the NE.
Precipitable water values would increase as a result and help fuel
some significant rainfall, especially as The Heights fall and provide
added instability.



Fire weather...
after good to excellent humidity recovery this morning, a slightly
warmer/drier day on tap except for the northeast plains where a weak
backdoor front will lead to an increase in chances for wetting rain.
The upper high is forecast move west and become centered directly
over the state tonight, with outflow from storms over southeast Colorado
and NE New Mexico pushing the backdoor front further south and west
into central portions of the state. The front will recharge moisture
across central areas Thursday, bringing pwats up to near daily
record values and resulting in an uptick in wetting/soaking storms
late Thursday through Friday. Slow storm motion will lead to some
significant rainfall totals across central and west central New
Mexico late Thursday through Friday. Daytime temperatures will
generally be below normal Thu/Fri due to rain-cooling and additional
cloud cover.

Look for a slight warming/drying trend this weekend as the upper
high becomes reestablished across eastern New Mexico. The best
chances for wetting rain this weekend will be across north central
and northwest portions of the state on the periphery of the upper
high. The upper high will shift west early to mid next week across
southern New Mexico, with chances for wetting rain favoring the
northeast quarter of the state. That said, the latest GFS shows
tropical moisture getting picked-up and circulated into western New
Mexico, so good chances for wetting rain may not be limited to just
the NE quarter early to mid next week.



Abq watches/warnings/advisories...

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