Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus65 kabq 261145 aaa 
afdabq

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
545 am MDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Aviation...
12z taf cycle
IFR cigs across the east this morning as the backdoor front that
slid down the eastern plains has left plenty of low level moisture.
Low cigs will hang around for much of the day across the east,
especially at klvs where conditions do not look to improve all that
much through the day. Other locales will likely see some improvement
to MVFR cigs later in the day, before potential for IFR cigs again
Tuesday night. The backdoor front has produced canyon winds into
kabq, however they have not reached their originally thought
strength. Potential still exists for 30-40kt gusts between 12z-15z,
but confidence has lowered since the previous taf cycle. The backdoor
is expected to surge further west reaching kgup and kfmn by roughly 16z
and 18z respectively. The added moisture will spark afternoon
convection over the western and central mtns, potentially reaching
kabq, kaeg, kfmn, and krow late this afternoon.

24

&&

Previous discussion...349 am MDT Tue Sep 26 2017...
synopsis...
a cold front and approaching low pressure system will keep the
weather unsettled over New Mexico through Thursday. Cooler
temperatures are currently working into the state with readings
expected to stay 10 to 20 degrees below average today through
Thursday before slowly moderating. As the low pressure system
develops west of New Mexico today, showers and thunderstorms will
develop along the leading edge of the cold front, draped across the
Continental Divide and also near the Central Mountain chain of the
state. By Wednesday, copious amounts of lift and moisture ahead of
the low pressure system will work over the land of enchantment,
continuing into Thursday as the low moves north of the state. Clouds
and precipitation will start to gradually dwindle into Friday and the
weekend.

&&

Discussion...
the cold front has plowed through the plains and is working west of
the Rio Grande and trying to make headway toward the Continental
Divide early this morning. Showers and storms will not quit in the
east central to southeastern plains where some moisture convergence
and instability lingers, and low clouds are also prevalent along and
east of the Central Mountain chain. Some stabilization is expected
for the east central to northeastern plains today, so precipitation
may turn more stratiform and light there as the day wears on, but
convective cells will likely be more common toward the
Sacramento/Capitan Mountains and into Chaves County and vicinity. As
the front inches toward The Divide, some easterly upslope on east
slopes should aid storm development into the afternoon. By this time
the low should be centered over the tri-state area of California-NV-AZ with
diffluent flow poised to begin overtaking nm into the overnight.

By Wednesday, the low will inch eastward over AZ, progressively
spreading large scale ascent over nm with a healthy coverage of
precipitation. A belt of higher pwats will accompany, surging
northward into parts of central and western nm that could lead to
some locally heavy rain from thunderstorm cells, some of which could
train repeatedly over the greater Continental Divide area.
Temperatures will stay several degrees below normal with copious
cloud cover accompanying the widespread precipitation. Eastern slopes
will periodically remain socked in low stratus clouds as the easterly
synoptic flow persists.

By Thursday the low will begin filling in as it drifts northeastward
on a track north of The Four Corners region. Some subtle veering to
the surface winds is possible, but the overwhelming majority of
eastern slopes will still be observing some stratus within the
upslope component. Precipitation distribution still appears to be
rather widespread, but perhaps along one or more banded or linear
structures according to some model depictions.

On Friday, the low should lose more organization as it moves toward
the northern rockies. The European and Canadian models present much
less precipitation into Friday when compared with the GFS
counterpart. Would seem to think precipitation coverage would see a
substantial drop off on Friday, but still just about any zone would
retain at least a slight chance of a shower/storm. The moisture will
not be displaced with surface winds generally staying out of the
south. Some breaks in cloud cover will finally allow temperatures to
climb a couple to a few degrees.

Westerlies will slowly strengthen over nm as another Pacific
northwest low arrives and tracks toward the far northern rockies by
this weekend. This should slowly eat away at the moisture, but a
harsh dry slot is not seen at this time.

52

&&

Fire weather...
the backdoor front has reached the rgv this morning with gusty gap
winds through the abq Metro, and as far south as Roswell in the
eastern plains. Td's have surged upwards behind the front, into the
50s and 60s, bringing plenty of moisture that will keep much of the
east under a blanket of clouds Tuesday. Daytime highs will be 15-20f
below normal across the east today through Thursday. Lows will remain
near normal across the forecast area.

The original upper low that spun off the backdoor front has exited
to the north into the Dakotas this morning, while a new trough has begun
to develop over the Great Basin. This trough will form into a new
closed low over the Arizona/California border, and will act to draw the backdoor
frontal bdry further west. With a divergent flow aloft over nm and
the increased sfc moisture, afternoon storm coverage will expand
over ctrl and western nm today. The upper low will move little
Wednesday, keeping western and central nm under the gun for what
will be best coverage of storms for the week. As the low begins to
exit north Thursday, storm coverage will shift into eastern and central
nm. Storms will be quick to move, however heavy rains will be a
concern for isold flash flooding in low laying areas Tue-Thu,
especially for eastern locations that have already seen plenty of
rainfall over the past several days.

Mixhgts and ventrates will trend down to poor behind the front, 1st
across the eastern plains today, then expanding into Arizona on
Wednesday. Mixhgts and ventrates trend back up beginning Thursday
staying poor to fair across the east into the weekend. Temperatures
will also trend upward with highs back to normal areawide by the
weekend.

24

&&

Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations