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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
533 am MDT Tuesday Jul 26 2016

Aviation...
12z taf cycle
numerous shra/tsra W/ heavy rain expected today as a moist and
unstable atmosphere settles over nm. Storm motions will be slow
toward the east and southeast. Storms will be capable of MVFR vsbys in
heavy rain W/ LCL excursions to IFR from direct hits. Gusty
outflow winds and frequent lightning strikes also likely from
stronger storms. Latest guidance shows best upper forcing moving
southeast through central nm late today so greatest confidence
for impacts will be from ksaf to kabq and kaeg btwn 23z and 03z,
with activity lingering well into the night.

Guyer

&&

Previous discussion...333 am MDT Tuesday Jul 26 2016...
synopsis...
with ample moisture in place and a weak disturbance passing north
of New Mexico, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected today. A mid-level high pressure system will build
over the Great Basin Wednesday and Thursday, steering some drier
air over New Mexico and inducing a warming trend. However, daily
rounds of showers and storms will continue to develop over the
mountains then move over lower elevations to the south and
southwest Wednesday through the end of the work week. The high
pressure system is forecast to shift east of New Mexico over the
weekend, where it should be able to steer Richer monsoon moisture
over western parts of the state with cooler temperatures.

&&

Discussion...
pwats are progged to be a bit more moist than previously expected
today, varying around 1 - 1.75 inches with the wetter amounts
over the southeast plains. Thus, some locally heavy rainfall
appears likely.

Although drier air aloft is expected to advect southward over the
area as the high builds over the Great Basin during the mid to
latter part of the week, model surface dewpoints actually
increased in recent runs for this period due to a healthy
advection of low-level moisture into the area from the south and
southeast. High temperatures during this warmer stretch should
peak around 4 to 14 degrees above normal on Friday.

A cooling trend will then commence central and west Saturday and
especially Sunday as the upper high shifts east of nm. A somewhat
typical monsoon setup could be in store for at least the first
part of next week.

44

&&

Fire weather...
deep moisture and instability over nm will generate another round of
showers and storms today with locally heavy rain. Recent burn scar
flooding will be a strong possibility as storm motions will be very
slow and erratic. High temperatures today will trend another couple
degrees cooler with thicker cloud cover and higher humidities. Most
of the area will see excellent rh recoveries overnight.

The upper high will drift east Wednesday and allow some dry air over
the Great Basin to seep eastward into The Four Corners. Guidance is
not as bullish drying out central and southern nm so a decent crop
of slow-moving storms is likely again. A deeper push of dry and more
stable air is shown now for Thursday and Friday as the center of mid
and upper level high pressure shifts east along the Colorado border. This
looks to be warmest and driest period of the week. Haines values of
5 and 6 are even shown for much of northern nm. Moisture recycling
will be play the dominant role for any showers and storms around the
high terrain.

Guidance continues to advertise an eastward shift to the upper high
center with a rather impressive moisture push west of The Divide by
Saturday and Sunday. Humidities trend much higher and temps trend
back to near normal across the west. Still concerned about how far
the high will shift east next week so want to remain conservative
with regards to the pattern next week. However, it is starting to
trend much more favorable for widespread showers and storms with
locally heavy rainfall. This may actually turn out to be the most
impressive monsoon circulation so far this season for nm and Arizona.

Guyer

&&

Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

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