Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1112 am MDT Thu Oct 27 2016
18z taf cycle
VFR through 28/12z. High pressure aloft with increasing amounts
of middle to high level clouds. Strengthening Lee sfc trof.
Previous discussion...323 am MDT Thu Oct 27 2016...
high pressure sliding over New Mexico will keep temperatures above
normal through the weekend. High clouds will stream overhead today
and thicken on Friday. These clouds will make it feel a bit cooler
with filtered sunshine. Winds will begin to increase over eastern
New Mexico Friday and remain breezy through Monday. A few record
highs are likely as many areas in the east warm into the upper
80's to near 90 this weekend. Next week will start out warm and
tranquil then potentially turn more fall like by mid week.
an unseasonably strong 592dm 500 mb ridge will slide over nm thru Friday
ahead of a large scale upper trough approaching from the West Coast.
High clouds streaming northeast ahead of this trough from Hurricane
Seymour will encroach on nm late today. Model 400-200mb layer relative humidity is
saturated by Friday and will have some impact on limiting Max temps.
These thick clouds may also lead to some record high lows Friday and
Saturday mornings as radiational cooling is stifled.
Guidance is in very good agreement on mid and upper level moisture
exiting quickly east by Saturday as the upper trough races northeast
into the northern plains states. A sprawling ridge then redevelops
from Texas into the lower MS River Valley through Sunday. This allows
for deep layer southwest flow over nm and a resultant surface Lee
trough across the east. Max temps with downslope flow are expected
to surge into the upper 80's, with a few records likely. Another
fast moving upper trough is shown to race thru the central rockies
Monday. This will usher in weak cold advection and also likely be
the windiest day of the forecast.
Changes may begin Tuesday as 00z operational models and ensembles
develop a deep tap of moist southwest flow over the southwest U.S.
Ahead of a deepening upper low over California. Temps will trend cooler but
still remain above normal Tuesday. The 00z GFS/ec/Gem all show a
closed low sliding east over nm Wednesday. Ensemble guidance is
increasing forecast confidence so trended temps cooler by midweek.
Precip chances are also on the increase but it is still too early
for any excitement.
wetting precipitation looks unlikely through Tuesday of next week,
but there is a chance of precipitation Wednesday as an upper low or
trough approaches from the west. Temperatures will continue to vary
around 8 to 18 degrees above normal each day/night through Monday,
then highs may moderate some toward the middle of next week.
A strong ridge of high pressure will remain over the forecast area
today, before shifting southeastward on Friday as an upper level
trough crossing the Great Basin clips The Four Corners. A
persistent Lee trough will make winds gusty across northeast areas
today, then even breezier across east central areas on Friday as the
best pressure gradient sinks southward. This will result in overall
ventilation improvement compared to wednesday's poor readings, but
pockets of poor ventilation are expected across north central and
northwest areas today. One of these poor pockets may linger from
the southern sangres to the jemez on Friday.
The ridge of high pressure will try to build back over the area from
the southeast on Saturday, but a more significant upper level trough
will pass north of nm Sunday shifting the high southeastward again.
Stronger winds aloft and a pronounced Lee trough should result in a
gustier day on Sunday, especially in the northern and western
mountains. Some of these winds may linger into Monday as directions
shift from southwesterly to westerly. And, the potential exists for
a mountain wave event in the northern mountains Sunday night.
Widespread poor ventilation is expected Monday, and this will likely
also be the case Tuesday across the east in the wake of a back door
cold front Monday night.
Ventilation should improve as the weather system arrives from the
west on Wednesday. GFS and European model (ecmwf) are at odds on the strength of the
system and how quickly it will cross, but it does look like much of
the area will have a chance of precipitation; possibly as early as