Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kabq 262358
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
558 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017
00z taf cycle
VFR conditions for the most part through the next 24 hours. Short
lived MVFR conditions are possible with any stronger storms. Taf
sites with the best chance of thunderstorms and rain will be ktcc and krow this
evening. Then, a cluster of showers and storms is forecast to move
into far northeast nm after 27/06z. This complex will send a rain
cooled boundary south and west through the eastern plains during the
early morning hours, making it to the canyons of the central Mt
chain around Sunrise. East and southeast winds in the 15 to 25 knots
range will develop at kabq and ksaf. Biggest impact probably at klvs
with upslope flow creating low clouds and rain, with MVFR conditions
likely and IFR possible by 12z Thursday.
Previous discussion...337 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017...
a weak frontal boundary will enter northeastern nm tonight, offering
very slight reductions in temperature, but triggering strong storms
as it sags into the state. Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding
will be possible overnight across much of northeastern New Mexico.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are then forecast
again on Thursday and Friday with the potential for locally heavy
rain persisting. Some drier air will then enter New Mexico this
weekend, pushing the focus for storms into far western and northern
areas of the state.
the upper level high has elongated across nm, northwest TX, and OK
with a few embedded centroids leading to lighter winds aloft.
The past few days have been relatively down days convection-wise,
and today has also had relatively low coverage thus far. However,
this should change as the focus turns to the northeastern quadrant of
the state tonight. Storms initially were exhibiting some northward
motions, but this has seemingly slowed down and become a bit more
variable in response to the lighter winds aloft alluded to above.
Storms have initiated over the northeast Highlands near the I-25
corridor an on the northern/northwestern periphery of the surface
low. As the surface low buckles more this evening, the northerly wind
shift will become more pronounced and act as a forcing mechanism for
new storms. A few storms could turn strong to severe in the
northeast, as northerly surface winds and easterly 500 mb winds are
yielding around 20-25 kt of bulk shear in the lower half of the
troposphere, marginal values for severe cells. The other issue will
be heavy rainfall due to multicellular convection, training, and very
slow steering winds aloft. Have opted to issue a Flash Flood Watch
for the northeastern quadrant of the forecast area tonight through 5
Overnight mesoscale convective modes will certainly dictate how
Thursday shapes up, but on the synoptic scale it does appear the
frontal boundary to spill into the Rio Grande Valley. As usual, the
NAM is more enthused about this outcome creating storm potential just
west of the Rio Grande along the east faces of the jemez and
Continental Divide while also keeping the east slopes of the Central
Mountain chain active in easterly upslope flow. The GFS is not as
invasive with the surface boundary and concentrates storms in
northeastern nm. Have trended forecast closer to the NAM solution,
but small scale cold convective pools will undoubtedly dictate the
progression of the front and thursday's crop of storms. Heavy
rainfall will remain a clear and present threat into Thursday, and
storm motions will remain slow as the western-most centroid of the
high wins its residency near The Four Corners. Another Flash Flood
Watch could be in order for Thursday.
Both the Central Mountain chain and the western high terrain will
remain under high probability for storms into Friday with readily
abundant moisture available. Into Saturday, the 500 mb pressure
heights will lower, but high pressure will still broadly encompass
the southern and central rockies. The best moisture appears to be
steered to the northern and western zones of nm Saturday as slightly
drier air fills into remaining areas of the state.
This trend will continue into Sunday, but a back door cold front will
revisit the northeastern corner of nm, adding new storm development
there and continuing into Monday. High pressure will stay within
arm's reach of nm through this time and into Tuesday.
upper level high currently migrating northwestward across the state
today. One more relatively down afternoon/evening is expected today
before a backdoor boundary spills south into eastern nm tonight and
west across the state Thursday. This front is expected to become a
trigger for widespread showers and thunderstorms first across the
northeast tonight and then through the remainder of the region
Thursday and Friday. Numerous showers and thunderstorms with locally
heavy rainfall are likely Thursday through Friday with a Flash Flood
Watch in effect for northeast and east-central areas tonight.
Drier air will begin to filter in across eastern and central
locations Saturday, focusing storms across the western quarter and
northern mountains. Similar conditions are on track Sunday but with
the introduction of a backdoor boundary once again across the
northeast, this area of the state will get into the convective act
Sunday evening. This front/boundary is forecast to drop into eastern
and northern nm Tuesday, allowing for an uptick in thunderstorm
coverage and intensity late-day Sunday into Sunday night, especially
GFS and European model (ecmwf) weather prediction models have the same general idea
for late next week, sending The Four Corners high west and northwest
over Nevada and allowing more backdoor boundaries into the state from
the northeast to trigger convection.
Flash Flood Watch until 5 am MDT Thursday for the following zones...