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afdabq

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
429 am MST Fri Dec 9 2016

Aviation...
12z taf cycle
IFR cigs, with a few areas of LIFR cigs/vsbys, are persisting
this morning across eastern nm, though the western edge is slowly
eroding. Krow will remain impacted through at least 16z before
improvement, while klvs and ktcc will likely waffle between VFR
and IFR (or LIFR in klvs's case) for the next two hours or so. VFR
conditions will prevail west of the Central Mountain chain, though
high clouds will increase and shift across the area in the
afternoon.

34

&&

Previous discussion...303 am MST Fri Dec 9 2016...
synopsis...
northwest flow aloft will continue to dominate the weather
through early next week then winds will back to the west and
southwest for the rest of next week. Overall a mostly dry forecast
except for the northwest third of the forecast area, which will be
impacted from a few upper level short wave troughs passing by to
our north. Winds will increase this weekend with strong to
potentially high winds over the Central Mountain chain onto the
adjacent east slopes. A stronger storm may impact the state late
next week. Temperatures will warm noticeably today and Saturday
and remain above normal Sunday into Tuesday. A back door cold
front Tuesday and Tuesday night could bring a shot of cold air
across the east by Wednesday.

&&

Discussion...
low clouds remain over most of the eastern plains early this
morning. Today's Big Warm up could be an issue over our southeast
zones including Chaves...Roosevelt and Curry counties. We will
hold the warm up across our southeast zones in check today. A Lee
side trough developing in the northeast will scour out the low
level moisture today, with highs around 30 degrees warmer than
Thursday. The west will be mainly sunny and milder.

The warm up will continue Saturday with increasing wind and a good
deal of sunshine. A weak short wave trough will zip by to our
north Sunday. Very strong winds aloft will try and mix down to the
surface, which could result in strong to high winds over the
central mountains onto the eastern slopes and Highlands. A back
door cold front will try and sneak into the northeast Sunday,
resulting in a modest cool down. Some snow will develop in the
northwest Saturday night then spread east to the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains Sunday. Rain will fall at lower elevations.

Winds will diminish some Monday and sunshine will keep highs
above normal. A short wave trough well to our north Monday and
Monday night will drop a back door cold front into the east late
Tuesday. Highs will be tricky in the northeast.

While the GFS and European model (ecmwf) both have the front pushing south and
west Tuesday night and Wednesday, the GFS continues to advertise
very cold air in the east Wednesday through Thursday. The European model (ecmwf)
not quite so much, but temperatures are closer to each other than
24 hours ago. Will edge down temperatures in the east Tuesday
night through Thursday. The west will experience very little
temperature change during this time, with highs above normal. Any
snow will be relegated to the northwest mountains.

A stronger storm could bring more widespread precipitation to the
northwest half of the state Friday into next weekend. Chj

&&

Fire weather...
the warming trend begins today. The most pronounced warming will
be across the eastern plains where they failed to reach the
freezing mark yesterday. A developing Lee side trough and the
resultant downslope winds will allow temps to rise between 15
and 35 degrees over yesterdays readings. Areas west of the
Central Mountain chain will generally see temps up to 10 degrees
warmer than yesterday. Warming will continue on Saturday as the
Lee side trough continues to strengthen. All areas will be back
above normal. Additionally, mid level winds will start to increase
Saturday afternoon and gusty winds are expected over ridgetops of
the northern mountains.

As a wave slides north of the state on Sunday, winds will continue
to increase. 700 mb winds will reach 45 to 70 kts during in the
morning, then should slowly decrease throughout the afternoon.
Since the strongest winds are not arriving with peak heating, the
brunt of the impacts will be felt over the higher terrain and
perhaps points just east, especially if mountain wave activity
crashes to the surface. Gusts upwards of 60-65 mph will be likely
over at least the Sangre de Cristo mtns and the Central Highlands
to include kcqc. Temperatures will cool somewhat, but will remain
at or above normal areawide. That said, there could be some
orographically forced precipitation over the northern mountains
and adjacent Highlands, but amounts will be very light. Snow will
generally be found above 7500 feet.

Breezy to windy conditions will continue Monday and Tuesday along
and just east of the Central Mountain chain as stiff west-northwest
flow continues. Temperatures will remain above normal as well.

It looks like the GFS has come back in line with the European model (ecmwf)
regarding the mid-week front. A strong and very cold system
across the northern Great Plains will slide eastward Tuesday and
Wednesday, but an associated cold front will back into the eastern
plains of nm starting Tuesday night and will continue to ooze
south and westward through Wednesday. The cold airmass will modify
somewhat on its trek southward, but it should cool temperatures
across the plains back below normal, particularly across the
northeast. At this time, it does not appear the front will push
through the central mtn chain, thus, only eastern nm will be
affected.

Low level winds will veer back around to the south and southwest on
Thursday across the plains and warm air advection will ensue. The
next system should begin to impact nm on Friday. While precipitation
is possible across much of northern and western nm, the potential
exists for very strong winds to develop areawide. Stay tuned.

Poor ventilation is expected areawide today, with only modest
improvement on Saturday -- which is to stay a few areas east of the
central mtn chain will see vent rates into the fair category. The
strong winds on Sunday will boost vent rates into the very good and
excellent categories areawide. The best ventilation on Monday and
Tuesday will be focused across the higher terrain where the
strongest winds will be found. Lower elevation areas will largely be
in the poor to fair categories. 34

&&

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