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fxus65 kabq 262320 aaa 
afdabq

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
520 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Aviation...
00z taf cycle
round of showers and storms will persist into the evening hours
across central New Mexico and potentially impact kaeg, kabq and
ksaf. Winds are hard to nail-down with thunderstorm outflow
boundaries converging in the vicinity of kabq/kaeg, but winds should
switch to an E-se direction between 02-03z. Short-lived MVFR impacts
are likely with these storms. Latest short term model runs continue
to show storms impacting ktcc and krow later this evening, so address
this with tempo groups with MVFR conditions in storms. Dry air will
begin to filter in from the west Tuesday, which should limit coverage
of storms to eastern New Mexico and also limit coverage somewhat.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast to persist through the taf
period.

11

&&

Previous discussion...310 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017...
synopsis...
another round of showers and thunderstorms which developed over the
higher terrain early this afternoon will drift into the valleys and
plains by this evening. A few of the storms may be strong to severe
with large hail, damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. The
activity should taper off by midnight. A pattern change is expected
Tuesday through Thursday as drier westerly winds push into the state
and shut down thunderstorm activity by Wednesday. Afternoon breezes
will return Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will be near to
somewhat above average. A backdoor front will bring cooler
temperatures along with chances for thunderstorms mainly to eastern
New Mexico Friday and Saturday.

&&

Discussion...
another round of storms developed over the higher terrain and was
drifting ever so slowly mainly to the south, more or less. A few
cells were strong and briefly severe so far, but definitely less
active than on Sunday. Short term models indicate the activity will
most impact the east slopes/Highlands of the central Mt chain later
this afternoon and evening before mostly ending by midnight.

Abruptly drier weather is expected Tuesday as drier westerly winds
make inroads into the west and central. Wednesday and Thursday will
be dry with some westerly afternoon breezes. A few century mark
highs may return to the east central/southeast plains but
temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal.

Another cool front will dip into the northeast Thursday night/Friday
with another surge Friday night. Moisture looks to waffle back and
forth over the east through the weekend and early next week, leading
to potential for thunderstorms. The west looks to stay mostly dry
with the GFS/European model (ecmwf) suggesting a trend towards a monsoon pattern
developing later next week.

&&

Fire weather...
scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms should hug the high
terrain this afternoon and evening, because their steering flow will
be more southerly than yesterday.

Drier air will filter into the area tonight, and especially Tuesday
and Wednesday, as the low level flow gradually veers out of the west
in response to a series of upper level troughs crossing the northern
and central rockies. There will be a significant downtick in
thunderstorm coverage on Tuesday, when mainly isolated storms will
favor the Southwest Mountains, Central Mountain chain and adjacent
east slopes. Dry weather is expected Wednesday through Thursday. The
troughs passing north of nm will strengthen the flow aloft and work
with a Stout surface trough in the Lee of the Sangre de Cristo Range
to make surface winds breezy across the east, north and west
Tuesday, Wednesday, and to a lesser extent Thursday. Humidities will
bottom out in the single digits across much of the west Tuesday,
then across most of the fire weather forecast area on Wednesday and
Thursday. Poor humidity recoveries are also expected. Some locally
critical fire weather conditions are forecast west of the
Continental Divide on Tuesday, and east of the central mountains
Wednesday. Haines indices will reflect the drier conditions with
widespread 6's across central and western areas Tuesday, then
areawide Wednesday and Thursday.

The dry conditions will persist until a moist back door cold front
brings some humidity improvement along and east of the Central
Mountain chain Friday. There will be a chance for showers and
thunderstorms in and east of the Sangre de Cristos Friday and
Saturday. However, very low humidities and Haines of 6 will persist
farther west as a slow moving upper level trough digs into the Great
Basin.

&&

Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

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