Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kabq 200332 aab
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
832 PM MST sun Nov 19 2017
a quick update to lower a few temperatures overnight, mainly in
valley locations like Farmington, the albquerque area and Roswell.
Zones out shortly.
Previous discussion...453 PM MST sun Nov 19 2017...
00z taf cycle
VFR conditions with just high cirrus clouds will persist through the
next 24 hours. Stronger winds will impact the mountains and adjacent
Highlands of central New Mexico Monday afternoon with potential
mountain wave activity. Gusts around 40kt will be common in these
Previous discussion...324 PM MST sun Nov 19 2017...
a ridge of high pressure will cross the southwest US this week
keeping the weather dry. A surface trough in the Lee of the southern
rockies will induce breezy to windy conditions east of the central
mountains Monday with fire weather concerns. The warming trend that
began this afternoon will continue through the work week, except for
brief cooling behind a back door cold front in the east Tuesday
afternoon and night. Some near record and record high temperatures
will be possible starting Wednesday west of the Continental Divide,
then spreading to include parts of the east Thursday and especially
Friday. Another back door cold front may drop southward through the
eastern plains Friday night and Saturday.
a moderately strong ridge of high pressure will build over
California and Nevada Monday, before migrating gradually eastward
over Arizona later in the week and across New Mexico in the coming
weekend. The ridge will help keep the storm track north of New Mexico
this week, but a couple back door cold fronts will sag into the
eastern plains: one Monday night and Tuesday, and the other one
Friday night and Saturday. Except for some cooling with the cold
fronts, high temperatures will generally be above normal this week,
especially during the latter half of the work week when near record
and record high temperatures are expected in some areas. Readings
should peak on Friday around 14 to 22 degrees above normal.
Very dry air in place today will become even drier on Monday as a
Lee trough and somewhat stronger flow aloft induce breezy to windy
downslope flow east of the Sandia/Manzano and Gallinas Mountains.
This could result in fire weather concerns along the I-40 corridor
Monday afternoon. The cold front Monday night should allow humidities
to increase on Tuesday.
very dry conditions are in place due to low dewpoints, and humidity
has plummeted to 20 percent or less over the entire forecast area
today. Winds have turned lighter, as the flow aloft has relaxed and
turned more west northwest, and temperatures have risen a couple to
a few degrees above yesterday's readings.
Monday still appears to be problematic due to increasing winds near
and just downwind of the Central Mountain chain. The jet stream will
Arch over the far eastern Pacific and northwestern states before
diving southeastward into nm on Monday and Monday night. Embedded
perturbations will also ride through this northwest flow toward nm,
and the increased gradient aloft will combine with a Lee side
surface trough to yield gusty winds, primarily over the Central
Mountain chain eastward to the east Central High plains of nm. In
addition, rising temperatures and critically low humidity will be
present. It still appears that the spatial area impacted by the
critical winds and critically low relative humidity Monday afternoon would
represent a minority of eastern fwz107 and western fwz108, however
when added together, there is still a fair amount of spatial
coverage of critical conditions for a long duration. Therefore, a
Fire Weather Watch will be hoisted this afternoon. Outside of the
Central Mountain chain and the east Central Plains, the breezes will
generally be light to moderate. Ventilation will improve Monday, but
still be poor in many valleys and sheltered locations.
In the wake of the passing of the strongest jet core aloft and its
associated perturbation, a cold front will slide southward into nm
Monday night. Gusty conditions will accompany the front through
Tuesday morning, but will settle by the afternoon with expansive
areas of poor smoke dispersion/ventilation. This front will set
temperatures back several degrees in the eastern zones going into
Tuesday, but daytime highs will remain above average area-wide
As the anomalously Stout upper ridge of high pressure builds over
the baja, temperatures will stay above average Wednesday through
Friday, possibly with record-breaking highs. The winds will stay
very light with poor ventilation plaguing most of nm, and
precipitation will completely avoid the state.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for