Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kabq 222338 aaa
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
538 PM MDT Mon may 22 2017
00z taf cycle
another active night across eastern nm with showers and storms, some
severe, and eventual MVFR low cigs after midnight. Direct hits from
strong storms will result in brief IFR from +ra. A potent cold front
moving south overnight will continue to force rain showers along the boundary
until clearing in the morning. Low cigs will clear slowly Tuesday as
drier northwest flow arrives from the west.
Previous discussion...307 PM MDT Mon may 22 2017...
the warming trend continues this afternoon, except across the east
central and northeast plains where a weak backdoor cold front is
providing several degrees of cooling. The backdoor front is
interacting with Gulf moisture across the east central and southeast
plains to produce showers and storms, some of which may become severe
through the early evening hours. A second and stronger backdoor cold
front will plow down the eastern plains late tonight and may kick
off another round of storms. The front will create gusty East
Canyon/gap winds early Tuesday morning from the Albuquerque Metro
area south to near Carrizozo. A new warming trend will begin
Wednesday and will send temperatures above normal areawide by
Thursday as dry westerly winds overtake the state. Windy conditions
are forecast both Thursday and Friday. Warm and dry conditions will
persist for central and western New Mexico through Memorial Day, but
a backdoor cold front will cool-down the eastern plains Sunday and
may trigger a few storms across the northeast quarter.
the warming trend continues today across central and western portions
of the area, but eastern portions of the area are cooler than
yesterday at this time thanks to a weak backdoor cold front. This
front is providing a focus for storms between Las Vegas and and
Clovis, where the 20z laps analysis shows SBCAPE values approaching
2000 j/kg and Lis of -6c. However, the more favorable shear
environment is further south across the southeast plains and the low
level wind field is weak and disjointed, which explains the current
lack of storm structure. The latest nam12 shows improving southeast
lower boundary layer flow developing by late afternoon across
Roosevelt County just before convection exits into Texas. So, the
severe threat looks to be somewhat limited at this time. A second and
stronger backdoor cold front is forecast to plow down the eastern
plains overnight and may result in a second round of convection,
although the severe potential looks limited once again given lack of
oppositional flow ahead of the front. The front will push through the
Central Mountain chain early Tuesday morning and create gusty East
Canyon/gap winds from Albuquerque south to near Carrizozo.
Cold air advection behind the front will send daytime temperatures 15
to 20 degrees below normal across the eastern plains Tuesday.
Temperatures will come down several degrees in the Rio Grande Valley
as well. A few storms are still possible over the northern mountains
late Tuesday, with favorable veering wind profiles, but the cooler
airmass with lower surface dewpoint temperatures will not be capable
of sustaining convection as it moves southeast off of the higher
A new warming and drying trend will begin Wednesday as a ridge of
high pressure moves overhead. The ridge will be replaced with
increasing westerlies on Thursday, which still looks to be the
warmest day this forecast cycle with above normal temperatures
areawide. We're forecasting a high of 100 degrees at Roswell
Thursday and only 89 degrees at the Albuquerque sunport. If we hit 90
at kabq Thursday, that would be the first 90 degree day of the
calendar year and one day prior to our average 1st 90 degree day.
Windy conditions are forecast Thursday and will persist into Friday.
Warm/dry conditions will persist for central and western portions of
the area through Memorial Day weekend, but a backdoor cold front will
drop down the eastern plains Saturday night into Sunday and provide
some cooling there. The backdoor front may trigger a few storms late
Saturday and again Sunday, focusing across the northeast quarter.
dry northwest flow aloft over nm persists today, with increased low level
moisture remaining over the eastern plains. Afternoon storms have
already fired up over the eastern plains and will persist through the
evening hours, with a few storms capable of producing large hail and
erratic gusty winds up to 60 mph. The dryline over the east. Plains
will slowly push east this afternoon before retreating west after
sunset. A moderately strong backdoor front will push south across the
eastern plains overnight washing out the dryline as it progresses.
Isolated to scattered shower activity can be expected with the
passage of this front overnight. Breezy to windy conditions can be
expected through the gaps of the central mtns into the Central Valley
including abq Metro in the early morning hours. There is still some
forecast uncertainty for just how long these winds will persist.
Mixing hgts fall to below 10,000' above ground level across nm except over the Gila
Tuesday. Vent rates fall to poor to fair across the east behind the
passage of the front, but rebound Wednesday. Daytime highs also fall
15-20f below average Tuesday behind the front across the eastern
plains. A dry slot of northwest flow looks to mix to the sfc Tuesday
afternoon lowering dewpoints enough to allow for a few hours of
critical fire conditions for the eastern half of zone 101. Have
decided against issuing a warning here due to persistence for only a
couple of hours, and green up of vegetation in the area. A few more
showers and storms could fire up Lee of the sangre's Tuesday
afternoon. Temperatures rebound quickly Wednesday as a weak ridge
begins to build in from the SW. Daytime highs hit their peaks for the
week Thursday 5-15f above average. A weak trough passes north of nm
Thursday enhancing the pressure gradient over nm and thus increasing
westerly winds. The higher winds and well above average highs will
combine for widespread critical fire conditions across nm Thursday
afternoon. Winds and daytime highs diminish somewhat Friday lowering
the spread of critical fire conditions.
Both the ecm and GFS depict lowering pressure heights for the weekend,
inducing a cooling trend back to normal Saturday. Another backdoor
front across the eastern plains looks to lower temperatures further
Sunday. After that, southerly return of Gulf moisture looks to occur
over the eastern plains potentially setting up afternoon storm
activity early next week.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening
for the following zones... nmz105>107-109.