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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1136 PM MDT Thu may 23 2019

Aviation...
06z taf cycle
surface boundary stretched from west of kcao to ktcc and kcvs with
areas MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys in br to the north and east of the
boundry will wash out around between 15-17z as surface Lee trough
develops over ern nm. Ongoing convection just across the ern nm/Texas
border to continue moving to the NE, however, may inch over into nm
but not expected to be more than isolated. Otherwise, dry southwest
winds aloft with few-sct cu and CI aft 18z.

&&

Previous discussion...346 PM MDT Thu may 23 2019...
synopsis...
a cold front has sagged into northeastern and east central New Mexico
today, keeping temperatures much cooler than average there today.
Outside of this area where the front invaded, strong south southwest
winds have buffeted much of central and portions of western New
Mexico. These strong winds will subside around sunset, and a welcome
respite to the winds is expected for these areas Friday. However,
breezy to windy conditions will still impact parts of the
northeastern Highlands and plains Friday afternoon. A few
thunderstorms will periodically impact far eastern New Mexico near
the Texas and Oklahoma borders with some storms occasionally turning
strong to severe through the Holiday weekend. Otherwise, temperatures
will slowly rise closer to normal through the weekend, and will then
fall back down a few degrees in western and central New Mexico on the
Memorial Day Holiday.

&&

Discussion...
back door cold front has wreaked havoc on today's forecast with
unfortunately large busts in the northeastern quadrant of the state
with temperatures, winds, and cloud cover. This will be an area that
has large uncertainty going forward into tonight, primarily with
cloud cover, wind direction, and then low level moisture/dewpoints.
Have kept some low clouds intact overnight in the northeast to east
central zones, but evening and overnight shifts will need to keep a
close eye on this. The low level moisture is expected to
increase/return in far southeastern nm where low pops will be
retained. Will drop the High Wind Warning, as the front has invaded
this area, completely altering wind directions/speeds, but the Wind
Advisory should be okay to stay in effect until 7pm.

For Friday, the rapidly ejecting low will have departed Utah and
crossed the North Dakota border to the Manitoba Providence in
Canada, and another low will be dropping into Oregon. This will
reduce the pressure gradient aloft over much of nm, the exception
being the northeastern part of the state. A surface low (999 mb) will
also develop over northeastern nm and southeastern co, and this will
kick up breezy to windy conditions there. Otherwise, most locations
will observe a brief, but welcome, relief from strong winds. The
orientation of the surface low and the trough extending south of it
will lead to a sharpening of the dryline with lower dewpoints mixing
east toward the nm-Texas border. This should limit the threat for storms
to areas immediately near the border while temperatures warm in most
areas by a few degrees (much more in the northeastern quadrant of
the state).

Moisture will slosh back into southeastern to east central nm Friday
night into Saturday morning. While the moisture will largely mix out
of the state through the daytime Saturday, it may hang on in the
farthest eastern tier of nm, perhaps with a few strong to severe
cells igniting. A few high based cumulus will likely Blossom over the
northern tier of the state Saturday afternoon where some virga
cannot be ruled out.

On Sunday, the mid level moisture will increase slightly while the
boundary layer remains quite dry, lending to inverted-v soundings and
more widespread high-based cumulus with virga potential. In the far
eastern zones, it will be business as usual, watching the dryline
slosh westward in the early morning hours before mixing back close to
the eastern border of the state in the afternoon. The upper low
dropping over southern CA, the short wave trough preceding it, and
their associated pressure falls could act to draw the dryline farther
west than is currently indicated by models and this will need to be
monitored closely. Any storms that fire along the dryline Sunday
would again likely have the potential for strong downburst winds,
heavy downpours, and severe hail.

Into Monday, the Southern California low will lift just northwest of The
Four Corners region. Scant precipitation would be possible over the
far northwestern zones while the dry slot on its southeastern
periphery will scour out the dryline and any remnant low level
moisture. The breezy to windy conditions would be on the rise each
day of the weekend and certainly on the Memorial Day Holiday.

Forecast models continue to reveal difficulties resolving what will
happen in the middle to latter part of next week, but overall the
westerly flow aloft appears to have reduced speeds.

52

&&

Fire weather...
conditions will become more favorable for fire growth through the
weekend. Gusty winds over northern New Mexico are expected to
diminish this evening before coming back up each afternoon through
the weekend. Temperatures will continue to rise through Sunday while
dry air punches into the region on Monday. Although minimum relative humidity
values will fall into the low teens in many areas, temperatures will
continue to remain below normal, allowing for fair to excellent
nighttime relative humidity recoveries. Instability will also increase over much of
the area on Saturday and Sunday with the best potential for
widespread critical fire weather conditions on Sunday over the
western and southern portions of the area. The limiting factor for
fire growth will be fuel conditions, thus conditions will have to be
monitored going into the Holiday weekend.

54/Fontenot

&&

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