Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kabq 290556 aab
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1156 PM MDT sun may 28 2017
06z taf cycle
remnant virga drifting east across the lower Rio Grande Valley and
adjacent high terrain will dissipate overnight. Clear skies Monday
morning will give way to more -shra/thunderstorms and rain with gusty winds and little
rainfall along the central and western high terrain aft 21z. Deeper
moisture advecting northward across eastern nm will allow for more
organized clusters of convection with localized strong thunderstorms and rain possible.
Outflow boundaries will be plentiful aft 00z with erratic winds. Most
activity will dissipate thru 06z.
Previous discussion...228 PM MDT sun may 28 2017...
the warming trend has come to a halt today thanks to a backdoor cold
front that pushed through overnight and is bringing below normal
temperatures to much of the area. A moistening phase begins today and
will continue into Wednesday, with chances for showers and storms on
the uptrend. A slow moving upper level disturbance will push over
Wednesday, which looks to be the wettest day of the next seven.
Daytime temperatures will be up to 15 degrees below normal Wednesday
thanks to additional cloud cover and rain-cooling. A warming and
drying trend will begin Thursday as dry air infiltrates from the
west, but decent chances for storms will remain across northeast New
Mexico through next weekend. Temperatures will be back to near normal
by Friday and will remain near normal through next weekend.
the backdoor cold front pushed through last night into this morning
and made it out to near the Continental Divide. Cooling behind the
front has brought our warming trend to a halt, with daytime
temperatures below normal across much of our area. This afternoon's
crop of daytime heating triggered convection will be significantly
limited by a relatively dry and slightly cooler lower boundary layer,
with a few dry storms containing gusty winds the most likely
Chances for storms will be on the uptrend Memorial Day, mainly during
the afternoon and evening hours as low level moisture advection gets
underway. Severe storms are generally not anticipated, but a few
pulse-type severe storms are possible across the northeast where
decent veering wind profiles will be present, but with only modest
surface based instability. Otherwise, a moistening phase is underway
and will continue into Wednesday, per 12z model precipitable water time series, as
Gulf moisture gradually works northwest across the area in response
to troughing to our west. In fact, both the 12z GFS and NAM show the
precipitable water at kabq climbing up to between 0.84-0.86" by Wednesday, which
exceeds the calendar day record value of 0.83". The 12z naefs precipitable water
forecast shows values up to 2.1 Standard deviations from normal by
Wednesday. Point is, moisture will be plentiful and storms will be
increasingly wetting going into Wednesday. Combine the added moisture
with an increasingly weak steering flow atmosphere and there is some
potential for localized heavy rainfall. In addition, a weak
shortwave trough is forecast to push over Wednesday which will only
help to destabilize the atmosphere and likely provide an earlier
start to the normal diurnal curve. At this time, the potential for
severe storms Tue/Wed looks very low given a lack of jet dynamics.
Would Need More surface heating than forecast for a severe wind
threat in a weak steering flow atmosphere and while hail is almost
always a threat with storms in New Mexico, any hail through Wednesday
should be relatively small.
A new warming trend will begin Thursday as a second trough
approaches from the west and brings in dry air. Temperatures will
quickly rebound to near normal by Friday and continue near normal
through next weekend. The best chances for storms late next week and
into next weekend will be across the northeast quarter where a couple
backdoor fronts will act as initiators.
in the wake of the back door cold front last night, higher
humidities have allowed cumulus clouds to form along the higher
terrain this afternoon. Later this afternoon, a few virga showers
and dry thunderstorms are expected to develop, and shift east or
southeast over the surrounding lower elevations. Erratic gusty winds
are the main threat with this activity due to dry microbursts.
These showers will continue into the evening, but should largely
dissipate by midnight. Otherwise, temperatures have been cooler
than yesterday, particularly across the plains. These cooler than
normal temperatures will stick around for much of the week thanks to
increased shower and thunderstorm activity.
Through Monday, low level southeasterly surface flow will slowly
draw up Gulf moisture into the state. This will increase chances and
of precipitation and storm coverage on Monday afternoon, though
there will still be a mix of wet and dry storms -- drier storms will
favor the northwest half of the area. Moisture will continue to
increase as an upper level trough undercuts a ridge across the
southwest U.S. And low level southeasterly flow continues to draw up
Gulf moisture. As a result, daily round of showers and thunderstorms
are expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday should be the most
active in terms of areal coverage of storms. Precipitable water values increase
over 0.75" over most of the central and western nm by Wed afternoon,
and over 1.00" across the eastern plains. Thus, wetting rains will
be on the increase, and could see small hail from these storms, both
tues and Wed. The Four Corners area will likely see the least amount
of rain through this period. Due to the amount of precipitation and
cloud cover, Wednesday should the coolest day of the week, with high
temperatures up to 10 degrees below normal.
Drier air will begin to filter in from west to east on Thursday,
shifting the best chances of precipitation toward the eastern plains
as well. It will continue to dry out on Friday, and warm up as well.
Most areas will see high temperatures within a degree or two of
normal. Haines indices will increase back up to 6 nearly areawide as
well. Another back door front on Friday night and Saturday may try
to replenish some of the low level moisture at least across the
east. Thus, storms remain possible along and east of the Central
Mountain chain through next weekend.
Ventilation rates should remain good or better through much of the
week with the exception of Tuesday. Areas of poor ventilation will
return across portions of central nm, including over much of the Rio