Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kabq 172356 aaa
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
556 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2017
00z taf cycle
a ridge of high pressure is flattening over the American southwest,
and fair weather, high cirrus clouds will continue to blanket much
of New Mexico over the next 24 hours. Light winds will also prevail
in this pattern along with VFR conditions.
Previous discussion...300 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2017...
no big storms in sight and overall it will be a rather benign
forecast into next week. There will be a couple of chances for
precipitation, with the primary one coming Thursday, as a short wave
trough crosses New Mexico. The other chance will be Saturday with
the passage of another trough and surface cold front. Moderate
breezes are forecast for Thursday and Saturday, with breezy to windy
conditions Friday. Otherwise high pressure aloft will be in control,
centered mostly to our southwest. Highs will be near to above normal,
aside from below normal highs Sunday in the east.
a nice afternoon underway with mild mid October temperatures, mostly
light winds and only thin high clouds dimming the sun at times. The
high clouds will increase some across southern nm tonight. This will
result in milder overnight lows compared to Tuesday morning, mostly
impacting areas south of I-40.
Mid and high clouds will increase Wednesday and Wednesday night ahead
of an upstream short wave trough. Highs Wednesday will be similar to
today, despite the increased cloud cover, thanks to some moderate
breezes. The trough will zip across nm on Thursday, providing the
best chances for showers and thunderstorms. Showers will begin
Wednesday night across the western and south central mountains, then
spread east Thursday and Thursday night before mostly ending by
Friday. Highs will be a little cooler area wide Thursday, with
breezy to windy conditions in most areas. Friday will be mostly dry
and a little milder, with highs above normal.
The next short wave trough will sail across the state Saturday with
breezy conditions. Cold fronts from the west and north will combine
to bringing cooler highs. Any precipitation should be limited to the
northern mountains and far northeast Saturday. Snow could fall on
the highest Sangre de Cristo mountain peaks such as Wheeler Peak.
Sunday through Tuesday will be dry as high pressure rebuilds to our
southwest. Highs Sunday will be similar to Saturday in the northwest
and west, cooler in the southeast. Monday will be milder, then
Tuesday mostly cooler behind a back door cold front Monday night.
quiet conditions will prevail for the rest of the day across the
land of enchantment. High clouds will continue to stream in from the
west which will keep temperatures warmer than last night for most
locations. Poor to fair humidity recoveries are expected tonight
across much of northern nm, while fair to good recoveries are
expected most other locations.
On Wednesday, clouds will continue to stream in and thicken. This
will lower temperatures a few degrees, at least across western and
perhaps central nm. A weak boundary will move into northeast nm as
well, though will do little to sensible weather. Ventilation will be
poor to fair behind this boundary however, but other locations
across the forecast area should see improvement in ventilation
A weak trough will slowly cross the area Wednesday night through
Thursday night. Moisture and lift associated with the trough will
allow isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop
perhaps as early as Thursday morning. Storms should get more
numerous toward the late afternoon and evening, though rainfall
amounts will generally be pretty light. However, pwats will be
around 2 Standard deviations above normal across portions of central
nm, so some areas may get some good rainfall. Additionally, any
shower or thunderstorm will be capable of gusty and erratic winds,
since moisture at low levels will initially be low, though will
trend upward with top-down moistening. Temperatures Thursday will
remain just above normal despite widespread cloud cover.
The upper trough will pull away from the state on Friday, and strong
westerly upper level flow will move overhead. Have increased wind
speeds for Friday afternoon, not only over the high elevations, but
across lowlands as well as strong mixing looks to return. Expect
breezy to windy conditions for most areas. Humidities will be
slightly lower, though temperatures will vary little from Thursday.
A trough will cross The Rockies on Saturday, sending a cold front
southward into New Mexico. Both the back door and Pacific front
segments should be through the area by midnight. This will trend
temperatures much cooler for Saturday, and may even fall a few more
degrees Sunday across the plains. There is a slight chance for rain
or snow across the northern mountains and northeast plains with the
frontal passage, but amounts will be insignificant. Thereafter, a
strong ridge will develop over the southwest conus, leaving nm under
weak northwesterly flow aloft. The latest GFS suggests another
strong back door cold front on Tuesday, but the European model (ecmwf) is showing
a weaker front on Monday.
18z taf cycle
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Thin high clouds
are already moving across portions of western and central nm, and
these will continue to increase and thicken late tonight ahead of an
upper level trough.