Belknap, IL

... Wintry precipitation expected late Monday and Monday night...

Wintry precipitation is forecast to develop over southeast
Missouri by Monday afternoon... and then spread east of the
Mississippi River into southern Illinois and far west Kentucky
toward the end of the day Monday... into Monday evening. The
activity should reach southwest Indiana and the pennyrile region
of west Kentucky later Monday evening.

Mainly snow is expected north of Route 13 in southern Illinois and
across southwest Indiana with some sleet possible. Snow... sleet
and a chance of rain is forecast over portions of west Kentucky
and into southeast Missouri toward the bootheel. Over the
remainder of the region... mainly snow and sleet are anticipated.

1 to perhaps 2 inches of snow mixed with some sleet... is forecast
over portions of southeast Missouri... southern Illinois and
southwest Indiana. Amounts around 1 inch will be possible over
west Kentucky. Totals may be lower toward the Tennessee border
should more sleet and rain factor in Monday night. As the
precipitation ends from west to east Monday night into early
Tuesday... it should transition to mainly light drizzle... or
flurries. Patchy freezing drizzle cannot be ruled out in areas
that dip just below 32 degrees by Tuesday morning.

Given the complexity of the forecast with respect to precipitation
type... forecast amounts may be subject to change. Should colder
air hold across the region... snow totals may have to be adjusted
upward slightly. Should warmer air move farther north than
expected from the Tennessee Valley... then wintry precipitation
totals will likely be lower. Temperatures not far from 32 degrees
will also play a role in accumulation efficiency. So stay tuned
for later statements and possible advisories... as the concern
still exists for travel impacts across the region late Monday and
especially Monday night.

338 am CST sun Feb 12 2012

... Winter weather event likely Monday and Monday night...

Moisture will over spread the region Monday... ahead of an upper
level storm system... forecast to be over western Missouri by
Monday evening. The wintry precipitation may be slow to develop
initially Monday west of the Mississippi River over southeast
Missouri... as the airmass will be very dry across the region.
However by afternoon... wintry precipitation should work its way to
the surface... with the activity spreading east from southeast
Missouri Monday afternoon... to areas east of the Mississippi River
including southern Illinois... southwest Indiana and west Kentucky
late Monday afternoon into Monday evening.

Most of the wintry precipitation is expected to be in the form
of snow. However... mixed wintry precipitation is possible as well
with this event... especially south of the Ohio River... and
over southeast Missouri.

Preliminary indications suggest no less than 1 to 2 inches may
accumulate most areas. Some data suggests higher amounts will
be possible. Given the Prospect for mixed wintry precipitation
and the variance seen in the model data... it is still a bit too
soon to gauge snowfall amounts with much confidence. The latest
data suggests higher precipitation rates will occur south of a
line from Perryville Missouri to Owensboro Kentucky which is also
where the best chance of a wintry mix will occur. The best chance
of any freezing rain will be west of the Mississippi River Monday
evening.

Despite the uncertainties with respect to snow amounts... it does
appear that travel impacts will be possible Monday night. Surface
temperatures... antecedent Road conditions... and precipitation
rates will all play a role in the level of impact. Given the cold
air well established across the region ahead of the approaching
system... accumulation will begin shortly after onset.

So... stay tuned for the latest updates. It is possible either
a watch... warning or advisory may be required for the upcoming
event.