Tropical Weather Discussion


abpw10 pgtw 101600
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans reissued/101600z-110600zfeb2016//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/101352zfeb2016//
ref/b/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/100121zfeb2016//
narr/ref a is a tropical cyclone warning. Ref b is a tropical
/cyclone formation alert.//
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 101200z, tropical cyclone 11p (eleven) was located 
near 15.3s 170.9e, approximately 463 nm west-northwest of Suva, 
Fiji, and had tracked south-southeastward at 09 knots over the past 
six hours. Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 35 
knots gusting to 45 knots. See ref a (wtps31 pgtw 101500) for 
further details.
      (2) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection previously located near 14.1s 
170.0e is now the subject of a tropical cyclone warning. See para. 
2.A.(1) for further details.
      (2) the area of convection previously located near 16.3s 
155.0e is now located near 16.0s 154.5e, approximately 775 nm 
west-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia. Recent animated 
multispectral satellite imagery shows patchy deep convection 
developing over a consolidating low level circulation center (LLCC) 
evident in a 092313z AMSU image. Recent scatterometry data depict  
25 to 30 knot winds along the southern periphery of the LLCC. Upper 
level analysis indicates a favorable environment, with light-
moderate (15 to 20 knots) vertical wind shear and a strong poleward 
outflow channel. Global models predict continued development of 
this system over the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained surface winds 
are estimated at 25 to 30 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is 
estimated to be near 999 mb. See ref b (wtps21 pgtw 100130) for 
further details. Based on the improving low level signature and 
persistent upper level support, the potential for the development 
of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains 
      (3) no other suspect areas.
3. Justification for reissue: upgraded area in para 2.B.(1) to 
warning status.//

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