Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones

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Tropical Weather Discussion

000 

abpw10 pgtw 220600
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans/220600z-230600zsep2014//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/220151zsep2014//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone warning.//
Rmks/
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 220000z, tropical storm 16w (Fung-Wong) was located 
near 27.3n 122.0e, approximately 235 nm south of Shanghai, China, 
and had tracked northward at 13 knots over the past six hours. 
Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 45 knots gusting 
to 55 knots. See ref a (wtpn32 pgtw 220300) for further details.
      (2) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection previously located near 11.7n 
151.1e, is now located near 11.6n 150.5e, approximately 350 nm east-
southeast of Guam. Animated multispectral satellite imagery 
continues to depict a large area of increased deep convection 
broadly wrapping into a slowly-organizing low-level circulation 
center (LLCC). A 220331z NOAA-19 microwave image reveals the bulk of 
the deep convection over the southwestern quadrant and fragmented 
convective banding over the eastern semi-Circle wrapping towards the 
ill-defined LLCC. An older 220017z ascat pass partially showed 20 to 
30 knot southwesterly wind barbs over the southwestern corner. Upper-
level analysis indicates the disturbance is located in a favorable 
environment with low to moderate (05 to 15 knot) vertical wind shear 
and excellent dual outflow channels, as evident in the water vapor 
imagery. Additionally, sea surface temperatures in the area are 
conducive for development. Maximum sustained surface winds are 
estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated 
to be near 1006 mb. Due to increased convection and slow 
organization, the potential for the development of a significant 
tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.//
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