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Tropical Weather Discussion

999 

abpw10 pgtw 300230
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans reissued/300230z-300600zjul2015//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/291421zjul2015//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone formation alert.//
Rmks/
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection previously located near 12.0n
162.6e, is now located near 12.7n 161.0e, approximately 180 nm
north of ujelang. Animated msi depicts an area of persistent deep
convection and strong mid-level turning over a slightly-exposed
LLCC. A 292356z gpm image shows a consolidating LLCC with
fragmented, formative banding. Upper-level analysis indicates a
marginally-favorable environment with low to moderate vws offset
by good poleward outflow due to a TUTT cell positioned to the
north-northwest. The system is in a region conducive for further
development, with good model development in the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.
Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1006 mb. The
potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone
within the next 24 hours is high. See ref a (wtpn21 pgtw 291430)
for further details.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection previously located near 5.5s
163.7e, is now located near 4.3s 166.2e, approximately 400 nm
northeast of Solomon Islands. Animated msi depicts an area of deep
convection associated with an elongated LLCC. A recent (292006z)
rscat pass shows good consolidated LLCC, with limited convection,
as can be seen in the 292204z metop-a image. Upper-level analysis
indicates strong diffluence and poleward venting associated with a
deep shortwave trough east of Australia. Dynamical model guidance
indicates that this system will slowly intensify as it tracks
southeastward under the upper-level str. Maximum sustained surface
winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots. Minimum sea level pressure
is estimated to be near 1005 mb. The potential for the development
of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is
upgraded to medium.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
3. Justification for reissue: area in para 2.B.(1) upgraded to a
medium.//


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