Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones


Tropical Weather Discussion


abpw10 pgtw 290600
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans/290600z-300600zjan2015//
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) an area of convection has persisted near 17.8s 159.0e, 
approximately 516 nm west-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia. 
Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts flaring deep 
convection broadly wrapping into an ill-defined low-level 
circulation center. A 290300z NOAA-19 microwave image reveals weak 
and fragmented convective banding over the northern periphery 
wrapping towards the center. An older 282228z ascat pass showed a 
well-defined, but weak (10 to 15 knot) circulation with 20 to 25 
knot wind barbs along the northern periphery. Upper-level analysis 
indicates the disturbance is located an area of favorable 
environment with low to moderate (10 to 20 knot) vertical wind shear 
with good poleward outflow.  Maximum sustained surface winds are 
estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated 
to be near 1000 mb. The potential for the development of a 
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.//

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