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Tropical Weather Discussion

000 

abpw10 pgtw 291730
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans reissued/291730z-300600zmar2015//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/291351zmar2015//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone warning.//
Rmks/
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 291200z, typhoon 04w (Maysak) was located near 8.0n 
149.7e, approximately 694 nm east of Yap, and had tracked west-
northwestward at 12 knots over the past six hours. Maximum sustained 
surface winds were estimated at 80 knots gusting to 100 knots. See 
ref a (wtpn31 pgtw 291500) for further details.
      (2) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection previously located near 17.9s 
168.7w is now located near 21.9s 160.9w, approximately 600 nm 
southwest of bora bora. Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery 
depicts flaring convection being sheared southeast of an elongated 
low level circulation center. An assessment of recent microwave 
imagery, including a 290626z ssmis 91ghz color composite image, 
shows that the convection is located along the southeastern 
periphery with dry air wrapping around the northwestern periphery 
and into the center. A 290855z scatterometer pass further shows the 
elongated nature of the system; however, there are 35-40 knot winds 
along the eastern periphery. Upper level analysis reveals that the 
system is south of the ridge under the mid-latitude westerly flow. 
In addition, the system is in an area of moderate to high (20 to 30 
knot) northwesterly vertical wind shear (vws). The system is 
expected to continue tracking east-southeastward, further into the 
baroclinic zone and increased vws. This system is assessed as 
subtropical. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 35 to 
40 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 993 mb. 
Due to the subtropical assessment and declining upper level 
environment, the potential for the development of a significant 
tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
3. Justification for reissue: added area in para 2.B.(1).//
Nnnn

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Dr. Jeff Masters' Blog
By Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:22 PM EDT on March 29, 2015
Director of Meteorology, Weather Underground
It's been a record early start to typhoon season in the Western Pacific, where Category 2 Typhoon Maysak, with top sustained winds of 100 mph as of 8 pm EDT Sunday, is gathering strength in the waters a few hundred miles [...]

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