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Tropical Weather Discussion

000 

abpw10 pgtw 300600
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans/300600z-310600zmar2015//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/300151zmar2015//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone warning.//
Rmks/
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 300000z, typhoon 04w (Maysak) was located near 8.4n 
146.9e, approximately 526 nm east of Yap, and had tracked westward 
at 14 knots over the past six hours. Maximum sustained surface winds 
were estimated at 85 knots gusting to 105 knots. See ref a (wtpn31 
pgtw 300300) for further details.
      (2) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (subtropical system) previously 
located near 21.9s 160.9w is now located near 22.6s 158.2w, 
approximately 510 nm southwest of bora bora. Animated enhanced 
infrared satellite imagery depicts persistent deep convection 
sheared over the southeast quadrant of an exposed low-level 
circulation center (LLCC). A 300307z AMSU-b 89 ghz image shows 
shallow banding wrapping into an elongated LLCC with deep convective 
banding confined to the southeast quadrant. Recent scatterometer 
imagery indicates 25 to 30 knot winds over the eastern semi-Circle. 
Upper-level analysis reveals an unfavorable environment 
characterized by moderate to strong (20 to 30 knots) vertical wind 
shear (vws) associated with strong northwesterly flow aloft. This 
system is located poleward of the subtropical ridge axis and is 
embedded within the subtropical westerlies with moderate 
baroclinicity. The system is not expected to develop into a tropical 
system and will continue tracking east-southeastward, further into 
the baroclinic zone and increased vws. Maximum sustained surface 
winds are estimated at 30 to 35 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is 
estimated to be near 998 mb. Due to the subtropical nature of the 
system, the potential for the development of a significant tropical 
cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.//
Nnnn

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Dr. Jeff Masters' Blog
By Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:22 PM EDT on March 29, 2015
Director of Meteorology, Weather Underground
It's been a record early start to typhoon season in the Western Pacific, where Category 2 Typhoon Maysak, with top sustained winds of 100 mph as of 8 pm EDT Sunday, is gathering strength in the waters a few hundred miles [...]

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