abpw10 pgtw 300600
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans/300600z-310600zmar2015//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/300151zmar2015//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone warning.//
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
a. Tropical cyclone summary:
(1) at 300000z, typhoon 04w (Maysak) was located near 8.4n
146.9e, approximately 526 nm east of Yap, and had tracked westward
at 14 knots over the past six hours. Maximum sustained surface winds
were estimated at 85 knots gusting to 105 knots. See ref a (wtpn31
pgtw 300300) for further details.
(2) no other tropical cyclones.
B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
B. Tropical disturbance summary:
(1) the area of convection (subtropical system) previously
located near 21.9s 160.9w is now located near 22.6s 158.2w,
approximately 510 nm southwest of bora bora. Animated enhanced
infrared satellite imagery depicts persistent deep convection
sheared over the southeast quadrant of an exposed low-level
circulation center (LLCC). A 300307z AMSU-b 89 ghz image shows
shallow banding wrapping into an elongated LLCC with deep convective
banding confined to the southeast quadrant. Recent scatterometer
imagery indicates 25 to 30 knot winds over the eastern semi-Circle.
Upper-level analysis reveals an unfavorable environment
characterized by moderate to strong (20 to 30 knots) vertical wind
shear (vws) associated with strong northwesterly flow aloft. This
system is located poleward of the subtropical ridge axis and is
embedded within the subtropical westerlies with moderate
baroclinicity. The system is not expected to develop into a tropical
system and will continue tracking east-southeastward, further into
the baroclinic zone and increased vws. Maximum sustained surface
winds are estimated at 30 to 35 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is
estimated to be near 998 mb. Due to the subtropical nature of the
system, the potential for the development of a significant tropical
cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.
(2) no other suspect areas.//