136 
abpw10 pgtw 120600
msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans/120600z-130600zjul2009//
ref/a/msg/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/120151zjul2009//
ref/b/msg/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/120421zjul2009//
narr/ref a is a tropical cyclone warning. Ref b is a tropical
/cyclone formation alert.//
Rmks/
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 120000z, tropical depression 05w (Soudelor) was located
near 20.4n 110.4e, approximately 255 nm east of hanoi Vietnam, and
had tracked westward at 11 knots over the past six hours. Maximum
sustained surface winds were estimated at 30 knots gusting to 40
knots. See ref a (wtpn31 pgtw 120300) for further details.
      (2) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection previously located near 9.3n
137.2e, has dissipated and is no longer suspect for the development
of a significant tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.
      (2) the area of convection previously located near 18.2n
127.2e, is now located near 19.4n 126.4e, approximately 425 nm
northeast of Manila, Philippines. Animated multispectral imagery
depicts a broad region of mid-level turning, embedded in the monsoon
trough, with a developing low level circulation center (LLCC). A
recent 120104z AMSU-b pass shows indications of curved inflow
towards the LLCC. Upper level analysis reflects a favorable
environment with a point source located over the LLCC providing good
radial outflow. Additionally, the LLCC is in an area of low to
moderate vertical wind shear (10-20 knots). Sea surface temperatures
and ocean heat content over the region are favorable for continued
development. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 17 to
22 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1005
mb. See ref b (wtpn21 pgtw 120430) for further details. The
potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone
within the next 24 hours is upgraded to good.
      (3) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
Forecast team: Bravo//

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