Northeast Snow... One Event or Two?
The Southern Plains system is expected to make a gentle left turn, taking it on a northeasterly course.
That will take the center of low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast and south of New England, bringing a quick stripe of accumulating snow to much of the Northeast I-95 corridor Wednesday night.
Accumulations from this system will be a small fraction of those from this past weekend's blizzard, and winds will not be nearly as strong.
However, there could be several inches of snow to deal with by the time Thursday's morning commute begins. The most aggressive model guidance suggests worst-case totals of 6 to 8 inches in a few places, but the more likely outcome is considerably less than that.
Above: Monday morning's European model forecast (left) and American GFS forecast (right), valid at 1 p.m. Eastern time Sunday, Feb. 17. The models disagree sharply about the evolution of this weekend's East Coast weather.
Another winter storm may target the Northeast this weekend, but at the present time the forecast remains quite uncertain.
The American GFS model has been favoring the development of a powerful winter storm that would affect the Northeast with high winds and heavy snowfall. This model, which is run four times a day, has occasionally suggested another storm rivaling Nemo in snowfall and wind energy.
However, the European model, which had the better track record forecasting Nemo and Superstorm Sandy, has been favoring a scenario that winds up a winter storm a bit too far east to have much impact on the United States.
The Monday morning versions of these models were particularly stark in their disagreement, with the GFS model hammering the entire Megalopolis with wind and heavy snow, and the European model keeping the storm (or at least, its precipitation) almost entirely offshore.
Stay tuned to The Weather Channel and weather.com as we examine future model simulations for hints on which scenario is more likely to occur.
MORE ON WUNDERGROUND.COM: WINTER STORM NEMO PHOTOS
A row of school busses are buried in snow near Bridgeport, Conn., Sunday, Feb. 10, 2013, in the aftermath of a storm that hit Connecticut and much of the New England states. (AP Photo/Craig Ruttle)