If you have outdoor plans or travel plans (and who doesn't?) over the Independence Day holiday and you'll be in the Southeast, you need to pay close attention to the forecast.
A serious flash flood threat is expected to develop from parts of Florida northward into the Appalachians as thousands of people flock to beaches, hiking trails and campsites for the Fourth of July.
The rains will come on the heels of the wettest June on record for places such as Macon and Augusta, Ga., and Johnson City, Tenn.
First, let's take a look at the ingredients coming together to produce this soaking scenario.
Southeast Flood Ingredients
The ground is already moist across the Southeast. Many places are running 8 to 16 inches above average rainfall so far this year, and parts of east Tennessee, Georgia, and the Carolinas have seen double their average rainfall over the past three months.
The above factors will combine to produce thunderstorms with torrential downpours over the next several days.
Unfortunately, the saturated soils and the rugged terrain of the Appalachians are ripe for serious flash flooding in this scenario.
Hikers and campers should be especially alert to the threat of flash flooding along small streams and creeks and have a way of receiving flood warnings. Localized torrential downpours could send rapid water rises downstream even into areas that don't see the heaviest rainfall.
The thunderstorms will also bring the dangers of cloud-to-ground lightning and potentially some locally strong wind gusts that could knock down trees or tree limbs.
(DETAILS: Southeast flood alerts)
Motorists driving through the mountains of north Georgia, east Tennessee, and the western Carolinas will also need to be alert to the potential of flash flooding, mudslides, and rockslides due to the torrential downpours falling on steep terrain.
The Gulf Coast will also see its share of very heavy rainfall in this setup. Here, instead of rugged terrain being the problem, it's the sheer amount of rainfall over low lying areas that will prove most troublesome for drivers.
In addition, beachgoers will need to be alert to the danger of lightning – that is, if there's enough of a letup in the rain to bother going out on the beach to begin with.
Southerly winds associated with this weather pattern may aggravate the danger of rip currents for Florida Panhandle beaches, and possibly as far west as Alabama's Gulf Coast as well.
(MORE: Florida Rip Current Alerts)
MORE: Southern Appalachian Flooding January 2013
Neighbor Stanley Rhea volunteers his time and equipment to help the Allen family repair their driveway after heavy rains Tuesday washed the driveway out in Sevier County, Tenn., Wednesday Jan. 16, 2013. (AP Photo/The Mountain Press, Curt Habraken)