Rutgers University meteorology major and avid hurricane enthusiast living in Jersey.
By: wxgeek723 , 3:03 AM GMT on August 29, 2008
It's a busy night in the tropics. 'Tis the season.
The remnants of TS Fay continue to rain on central Pennsylvania into New York. It seems Fay is finally on the verge of dying out and should do so soon. Good riddance.
After being battered by dry air, northerly shear, and the mountains of Haiti, Gustav was forced to relocate its center just east of Jamaica. Its winds were estimated at 70 mph, and its pressure 988 MB. That is up from the 983 MB from this afternoon, according to the NHC's 8PM EDT August 28/0Z August 29 intermediate advisory, TS Gustav was located at Latitude 17.9N, Longitude 77W. It is currently pounding Jamaica. The mountains of the island could disrupt Gustav, but since it will soon move over very favorable conditions it should repair itself quickly. After that, Gustav is forecast to hit the LA coast as a category 3 storm. I think Gustav will become more intense than what the NHC is currently forecasting. Favorable upper-level winds, warm waters, and relatively high TCHP all favor intensification to a major hurricane, possibly to a category 4. Right now the main concern for Jamaica is heavy rain. Also, to all Gulf Coast residents, now is the time to prepare!
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica and all of the Cayman Islands.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar Del Rio, La Habana, and Ciudad de La Habana.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban province of Granma.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Cuban province of Mantanzas.
Hanna remains a weak tropical storm, having earned a name this morning. I agree with NHC forecast and have nothing to add. Right now, Hanna isn't looking too healthy, but should enter and environment where it can reach hurricane strength in 2-3 days. Whether or not Hanna will impact the East Coast of the US remains uncertain, and Florida should monitor the progress of Hanna. AT 5PM EDT/21Z Aug. 28, Hanna was located at 20.7N, 60.1W. Models forecast a northwest movement in the next couple of days, but then go crazy.
Invest 96L was designated today from a suspicious cluster of thunderstorms in the Bay of Campeche. It was impressive at first, but its thunderstorm activity has decreased somewhat. There is still a small window of opportunity to see TC formation out of this before it moves inland.
MIDDLE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE
A rather large tropical wave is accompanied by a broad area of low pressure. It is currently under rather unfavorable conditions (wind shear of about 10-25 mph, 10-20 kts). However, the shear is forecast to relax some, possibly allowing thunderstorms to increase. Any TC development is probably going to be slow.
AFRICAN TROPICAL WAVE
An impressive tropical wave is located inland in Sengal. The wave will have to deal with wind shear values similar to the wave ahead of it. However, if the wave survives, it could become a classic long-lived Cape Verde hurricane. It is much too early to determine if the wave will impact land or recurve out to sea.
THE TROPICS ELSEWHERE
The JTWC has written its final warning on Tropical Storm 14W, having been shredded apart by unfavorable upper-level winds. The JTWC is also watching another area located at 18.8N 151.6E. Wind shear is in the low-moderate range, but the potential for it to become a tropical cyclone by tomorrow is poor.
MIDWEST SEVERE STORMS
The SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook at 8 PM CDT Aug. 28 noted that the atmosphere was ripe for occasional damaging winds and hail. It has placed central Missouri and southern Illinois under a slight risk for severe weather. There is only a 2% chance of tornadoes in the area. There is a 5% chance for hail from northern Texas northeastward to southern Wisconsin. The chances increase to 15% in central Missouri, southern Illinois, and extreme southeastern Kansas. Remember, you are not advised to go outside during a severe thunderstorm or a thunderstorm in general, especially when hail is involved. Though I doubt one will be issued, go to the lowest level of your home if a tornado warning is issued! Since the area is prone to such weather, I'm sure the residents already know that. Also, there is a 30% chance of damaging winds in eastern Missouri and southern Illinois.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for eastern Missouri and southwest Illinois until 11 PM CDT.
A Severe Thunderstorm Warning is in effect for Crawford County, Missouri.
My next update will be late in the morning or early in the afternoon on Friday.
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