I'm in high school and love meteorology and extreme weather. I've been fascinated by weather since I was 5, and I plan on becoming a meteorologist.
By: wxchaser97 , 7:01 AM GMT on November 04, 2012
Rosa has been slowly weakening over the past couple days. Upper level winds have been unfavorable for strengthening over Rosa. She is on her last leg and won't be alive long. Currently Rosa has 35mph winds, a 1007mb pressure, and she is moving west at 6mph.
There is not much to say about Rosa. She is just slowly fading away into the night. She has had no big impact on people or land, unlike Rosa Parks. Rosa once had decent convection over her vigorous center. That has changed due to an unfavorable environment. Upper level winds have only been becoming more unfavorable. CIMSS wind shear map shows high wind shear flowing over Rosa. This is pushing and weakening any convection that forms over Rosa. Rosa is maintaining a closed vigorous circulation. That won't last long as shear is taking Rosa apart. Rosa does not have much time left as a tropical cyclone. The NHC will likely declare it post tropical in the next advisory. Rosa should continue to slowly travel to the west before turning NW. She will only continue to weaken as she goes farther north. Rosa is not a threat to land and this is entry about her.
A new invest has formed in the Eastern Pacific today. The invest is an area of thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system. The invest is about 380 miles to the west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The latest ATCF update had 90E with 30kt winds and a 1006mb pressure. Southern to southwesterly wind shear is impacting the invest. This is causing the showers and thunderstorms to not cover the center. With the center revealed, we do see it is closed and vigorous. If there wasn't shear then thunderstorms would be over the center and this would be a TS. The wind shear impacting 90E is expected to remain high over the next several days. There does not look to be much of a window for tropical development. 90E should continue to drift to the N before turning more to the west over the next few days. This invest is not a threat to make landfall and should be gone after it moves into higher shear. I give 90E a 30% chance to develop in the next 48hrs. I do so since it does have a good closed low, but this is probably generous. The NHC gives 90E a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48hrs. No matter what, 90E will continue to drop some rain and wind over parts of Mexico.
The northeast will be under the gun again as a nor'easter looks to be taking shape. It is expected to form near South Carolina and move to the NE. It should then deepen as it parallels the coast. Winds should get up to 50mph, a few inches of rain, some surge/coastal flooding, and inland snow. The low should make landfall along Long Island before moving NE back over the Atlantic. It should then hit Canada and give them some snow, rain, and wind. Models have a good agreement on this happening, track, and pressure. Timing differences and snow/rain totals are not totally worked out yet by the models. Usually a storm like this would not cause much trouble. There isn't enough cold air to cause 40" of snow and there won't be 60mph winds and flooding rains. However, due to Hurricane Sandy, a lot of damage has already been done in areas predicted to get impacted by the nor'easter. The news outlets have picked up on this and most people are aware of what could happen. This nor'easter should only hinder the recovery effort and cause beach problems. I don't expect too much damage to be done as this is nowhere near as strong as Sandy was. We need to watch the situation closely though as it will still have impacts. I have the nor'easter riding up the coast bringing in moderate impacts to most areas. I do not think this nor'easter will try to become subtropical or tropical in nature. On my threat level graphic you notice I have high and very high threat levels indicated. This is only due to areas getting impacted again, not a historic or very strong storm. People need to be aware of the nor'easter and be ready for some impacts.
Have a good day everyone and I will have a new update today or tomorrow. Don't forget to set your clocks back an hour if you haven't already.
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