I'm a CMU Honors student and love meteorology and extreme weather. I've been fascinated by weather since I was 5, and plan on becoming a meteorologist
By: wxchaser97 , 11:41 AM GMT on October 23, 2012
Yesterday a vigorous tropical wave(invest 99L) formed into a tropical storm. Later in the day it strengthened to the 19th named storm, tropical storm Sandy. Sandy was and is under a good environment for development and strengthening. She has improved her satellite appearance dramatically over the past 24-36hrs. Currently Sandy has 45mph winds, a 998mb pressure, and she is stationary. Sandy has only continued to get organized and she could become a hurricane in a day or so before impacting Jamaica and Cuba.
Right now Sandy is having the time of her life. She has little worries about any problems right now in the Caribbean. Sandy is over high TCHP and SST values and has lower wind shear impacting her than storms before her. There is a very high chance that Sandy continues to intensify in the Caribbean and it is possible that Sandy undergoes rapid intensification. The SHIPS model indicates that there is a good chance of Sandy doing RI while in the Caribbean. I believe if she gets a strong core that she will rapidly intensify. Sandy is currently building a core and a CDO over the center. As she organizes herself she is over great conditions. This is an area known for rapid intensification and Sandy looks to be another example. Right now I forecast Sandy to become a 90mph hurricane before impacting Cuba. I feel this is not overdone as models indicate she could become a hurricane before leaving the Caribbean. Sandy will continue to be slow moving for another 24hrs, right over the high TCHP values. Once she makes it to Cuba some shear will be impacting her plus land interaction will weaken Sandy. People in Jamaica, Cuba, Hispaniola, and the Cayman Islands need to be taking action for Sandy's arrival.
As I said earlier Sandy should weaken due to land interaction and some shear. The mountains should disrupt Sandy's circulation and disorganize the storm a little. I feel that she should weaken back down to a strong tropical storm from all of this. Once she is back over water conditions should be favorable for some strengthening. I predict Sandy should be able to regain hurricane strength. I am thinking Sandy should get pulled to the N by a weakness to the north. An advancing trough could either send her out to sea or even take her inland. It all depends on the timing and the tilt of the trough. Right now I play a safe NNE tack but it is not in super high confidence. There is model support for this solution but there are other solutions too. The GFS continues to take Sandy out to sea and not making it to the east coast. Some other models have Sandy getting very close/landfall in the NE or Mid Atlantic. It is the timing of everything that will determine whether Sandy goes over open water or into the US. Another thing the models show is Sandy becoming subtropical near the end of the forecast period. For now I have not went with Sandy turning subtropical but it is a possibility. Everyone in the Mid Atlantic north needs to watch the progress of Sandy so they are ready for anything.
Yesterday another tropical depression formed in the Atlantic. It has a good satellite presentation with banding noted and a good circulation. Satellite estimates show TD19 could be a tropical storm and it is likely we have TS Tony before the day is done. TD19 should be in a semi-favorable environment for a couple days. This leads me to believe that it should strengthen into a TS and a little more. After that cooler SST values and higher wind shear should begin to weaken TD19 and turn it extra-tropical. TD19 could be a threat to the Azores and they should watch it just in case it tries to do something.
Have a great day everyone and I will have a new update tomorrow.
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