Full Tropical Atlantic Update 10/11/12
Invest 97L has went through a couple different stages in the past couple days. First it was looking steady but it was overcame by shear. However, yesterday shear relaxed again allowing 97L to quickly organize. 97L still has been showing signs of organization this morning with convection a little closer to the center. Currently 97L has 30kt winds and a 1009mb pressure per ATCF. The 30kt winds is backed up by a recent ASCAT pass showing an area of 30kt winds. That ASCAT pass also showed a well-defined surface low with 97L. While 97L is likely a TD, it shouldn't strengthen into anything significant. Also the NHC will be hesitant in classifying this even though advisories should be issued.
The environment over 97L is not the best and is only expected to get worse over the next couple days. 97L has been battling wind shear for much of it's life. Shear is still over 97L which is preventing significant organization. Shear may have the low and mid level circulation tilted a little, but is so it is not by much. Dry air is also a factor in keeping 97L from becoming something big. Due to it's small size any increase in shear or dry air would hurt 97L pretty badly. 97L can go either two ways, northeast or southwest. If 97L gets caught up in the front enough it will be pulled NE and it's development chances ended. If it drifts SW it will be going against moderate to high wind shear which would strip the invest of convection. Right now 97L is in a weak steering environment and will drift around today, possibly becoming a TD. Invest 97L shouldn't be much of a threat to any landmass.
Invest 98L has been steadily organizing over the past day. It is a vigorous wave with an embedded low pressure, that low is not very organized though. 98L has been consolidating and building convection despite the low altitude and strong shear. The latest ATCF update has 98L with 30kt winds and a 1007mb pressure. The NHC gave 98L a 50% chance of development and I agree with this. ASCAT has showed winds that were up to TS force but it didn't show a well-defined circulation. As more organization occurs 98L should be able to build it's own environment. I am thinking that we should see 98L become a named storm. Most models also agree with me in having 98L become a named storm. They take 98L into the northern Caribbean islands. Since 98L is still pretty far south I am unsure on how far north 98L gets. Shear has been slowly relaxing and is forecasted to relax even more. Combine lower shear with a moist environment and warm SST's a storm can quickly develop. No matter what 98L should bring squally weather to the Antilles over the weekend and early next week.
Have a great Thurday everyone and I will get a full tropical and severe weather update out tomorrow morning.