Full Tropical update for the Atlantic and Pacific; US weather update

By: wxchaser97 , 12:14 PM GMT on October 09, 2012

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Atlantic Ocean
Invest 97L
Invest 97L is still holding on near the Bahamas. The invest is a pretty large system convection wise but it doesn't have a good circulation. 97L is not developed by any major models and I feel that development will likely not happen. Upper level winds have became unfavorable which has hinder development even more. The latest ATCF update had 97L with 20kt winds and a 1012mb pressure, on a weakening trend. Right now the NHC is giving this invest/AOI a 10% chance of development in the next 48hrs. I agree with this as there is still a small chance but it most likely won't develop. Invest 97L will continue to move away from the Bahamas at about 10mph as it weakens even more. The most the Bahamas and neighboring areas will see is some increased rainfall and gustier winds.


Invest 98L
Invest 98L was tagged yesterday and has been slowly strengthening since then. Invest 98L has a decent cloud patter and decent convection already. This invest is the one to watch for major tropical development(into a TS/Hurricane). Currently 98L has 25kt(30mph) winds and a 1008mb pressure per the latest ATCF update. The latest NHC TWO gave 98L a 20% chance of development in the next 48hrs, I agree since development should be slower to occur. Right now invest 98L is moving WNW at 15mph, but it is located at a low altitude still. This presents two problems: not as much rotation and connected to the ITCZ. Being closer to the equator means 98L can't spin as much as it would father north. As 98L continues to head WNW and eventually NW this issue will be resolved and it shouldn't be a big factor in the long term for 98L. Also as 98L goes farther north it will break away from the ITCZ, which is feeding it energy/convection currently. Once 98L moves away from the ITCZ it will become it's own entity and able to strengthen into a tropical cyclone. 98L isn't totally stacked or has a tight circulation but that should be solved as it moves farther north as well. The invest's only problem should be upper level winds could be a factor near the Caribbean islands. It is too far out to really know how conditions will be for 98L that far out. This is the wave that models have been developing for a while now and most models develop it. 98L could become TS Patty and possibly even hurricane Patty if the GFS is correct. 98L bears to be watched as it could become a named storm and affect land.


Other possible development
Some development is possible in areas besides 97L and 98L. In a climatology stand point we should be looking in the Caribbean and close to the US for development. While conditions aren't the best in the world we could still see a storm try to develop off the end of a front. Such a storm could tap into warm Caribbean and gulf waters and strengthen into a good sized storm. People in those areas should still be prepared just in case a storm tries to wrap up quickly. Also the long range GFS shows Rafael forming late in the run. It would be after 98L exits the picture and it would form father north than 98L is located right now. Also since it is so far out such a storm could just not happen at all, but it is something to monitor.

Pacific Ocean
Post-tropical storm Olivia
What was once a strong tropical storm has now weakened to a remnant low. Olivia has became another victim to wind shear and cooler waters. The remnants of Olivia won't likely develop nor should they affect land.


Typhoon Prapiroon
Typhoon Prapiroon has been strengthening over the past few days. Convection has been steadily building and his circulation has improved. Winds have now exceeded 65kts which warrants the upgrade to a typhoon. Right now winds are at 65kts(75mph) and he is moving WSW at 5mph. Prapiroon has the same environment that the major storms before it have had. While the typhoon isn't perfectly organized it could still become a major hurricane strength typhoon. Prapiroon looks to miss Japan but they could see some wave action. Luckily there is a good amount of time to watch the progress of Prapiroon.


US
A nice warm-up is in store for the US this week. A ridge is building in behind the trough which will allow temperatures to warm back above average. This will be a big difference from the widespread cold temperatures. With the warm-up however comes more fuel for thunderstorms. Add the warmer moister air with some wind shear and higher cape values and you got some severe weather. That is what should happen in the Midwest late in the week. Stay tuned for more information as we get closer to that time frame. Other than that some thunderstorms will be possible in Florida over the next couple days. Also a cold front will come through in the northern states providing some rain. The rest of the country should be relatively quiet.


Have a great Tuesday everyone and I will have a new update tomorrow.
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15. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
12:22 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
wxchaser97 has created a new entry.
14. wxchaser97
3:32 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
Quoting pcola57:
Nicely done wx97,
Your format is just fine..
Carribean is a wild card in this..
So glad you updated your blog... :)

Thank you pcola, Caribbean will be interesting to watch.
TA was also probably just messing with me.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
13. pcola57
3:28 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
Nicely done wx97,
Your format is just fine..
Carribean is a wild card in this..
So glad you updated your blog... :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6915
12. wxchaser97
2:22 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
Quoting etxwx:
Hey, I like
So
Many
Categories
In
Each
Blog.

It's like one stop weather shopping!
:)
Seriously, it's interesting to read about what's going on in different areas, especially when there is no immediate tropical threat to write about in detail. Good job again, wxchaser 97! Hope you will cover snow events this winter too.


Hey thanks, I like to hear that and have people critic my work too. I will definitely be blogging about winter events this winter. In fact, this weekend I am writing a blog about TWC naming winter storms and how I will blog about winter storms.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
11. wxchaser97
2:19 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't want to deal with it. It's too much for me.

But you still have to deal with it even if it is too much.

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
10. wxchaser97
2:00 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
Quoting Dragod66:


CANT WAIT FOR SNOW!!!!!!!!!!

NEITHER CAN I!!!

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Thanks 97! :)
Quoting Civicane49:
Good job.

Thanks MA and C49!
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
9. wxchaser97
1:58 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
Quoting allancalderini:
Good Job always like your blogs.do you think we will use Sandy this year?

Thanks Allan, it would be a stretch to see Sandy but Rafael is possible.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
8. Civicane49
12:54 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
Good job.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
7. MAweatherboy1
11:45 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Thanks 97! :)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8034
6. Dragod66
1:45 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Quoting etxwx:
Hey, I like
So
Many
Categories
In
Each
Blog.

It's like one stop weather shopping!
:)
Seriously, it's interesting to read about what's going on different areas, especially when there is no immediate tropical threat to write about in detail. Good job again, wxchaser 97! Hope you will cover snow events this winter too.


CANT WAIT FOR SNOW!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: August 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 625
5. etxwx
1:35 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Hey, I like
So
Many
Categories
In
Each
Blog.

It's like one stop weather shopping!
:)
Seriously, it's interesting to read about what's going on in different areas, especially when there is no immediate tropical threat to write about in detail. Good job again, wxchaser 97! Hope you will cover snow events this winter too.
Member Since: September 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1528
4. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:38 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

Deal
With
It...;)

Thanks for stopping by.

I don't want to deal with it. It's too much for me.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32807
3. allancalderini
12:38 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Good Job always like your blogs.do you think we will use Sandy this year?
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
2. wxchaser97
12:27 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
So
Many
Categories
For
Each
Blog
Entry
!

Deal
With
It...;)

Thanks for stopping by.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
1. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:25 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
So
Many
Categories
For
Each
Blog
Entry
!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32807

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About wxchaser97

I'm in high school and love meteorology and extreme weather. I've been fascinated by weather since I was 5, and I plan on becoming a meteorologist.

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