I'm in high school and love meteorology and extreme weather. I've been fascinated by weather since I was 5, and I plan on becoming a meteorologist.
By: wxchaser97 , 12:14 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Invest 97L is still holding on near the Bahamas. The invest is a pretty large system convection wise but it doesn't have a good circulation. 97L is not developed by any major models and I feel that development will likely not happen. Upper level winds have became unfavorable which has hinder development even more. The latest ATCF update had 97L with 20kt winds and a 1012mb pressure, on a weakening trend. Right now the NHC is giving this invest/AOI a 10% chance of development in the next 48hrs. I agree with this as there is still a small chance but it most likely won't develop. Invest 97L will continue to move away from the Bahamas at about 10mph as it weakens even more. The most the Bahamas and neighboring areas will see is some increased rainfall and gustier winds.
Invest 98L was tagged yesterday and has been slowly strengthening since then. Invest 98L has a decent cloud patter and decent convection already. This invest is the one to watch for major tropical development(into a TS/Hurricane). Currently 98L has 25kt(30mph) winds and a 1008mb pressure per the latest ATCF update. The latest NHC TWO gave 98L a 20% chance of development in the next 48hrs, I agree since development should be slower to occur. Right now invest 98L is moving WNW at 15mph, but it is located at a low altitude still. This presents two problems: not as much rotation and connected to the ITCZ. Being closer to the equator means 98L can't spin as much as it would father north. As 98L continues to head WNW and eventually NW this issue will be resolved and it shouldn't be a big factor in the long term for 98L. Also as 98L goes farther north it will break away from the ITCZ, which is feeding it energy/convection currently. Once 98L moves away from the ITCZ it will become it's own entity and able to strengthen into a tropical cyclone. 98L isn't totally stacked or has a tight circulation but that should be solved as it moves farther north as well. The invest's only problem should be upper level winds could be a factor near the Caribbean islands. It is too far out to really know how conditions will be for 98L that far out. This is the wave that models have been developing for a while now and most models develop it. 98L could become TS Patty and possibly even hurricane Patty if the GFS is correct. 98L bears to be watched as it could become a named storm and affect land.
Other possible development
Some development is possible in areas besides 97L and 98L. In a climatology stand point we should be looking in the Caribbean and close to the US for development. While conditions aren't the best in the world we could still see a storm try to develop off the end of a front. Such a storm could tap into warm Caribbean and gulf waters and strengthen into a good sized storm. People in those areas should still be prepared just in case a storm tries to wrap up quickly. Also the long range GFS shows Rafael forming late in the run. It would be after 98L exits the picture and it would form father north than 98L is located right now. Also since it is so far out such a storm could just not happen at all, but it is something to monitor.
Post-tropical storm Olivia
What was once a strong tropical storm has now weakened to a remnant low. Olivia has became another victim to wind shear and cooler waters. The remnants of Olivia won't likely develop nor should they affect land.
Typhoon Prapiroon has been strengthening over the past few days. Convection has been steadily building and his circulation has improved. Winds have now exceeded 65kts which warrants the upgrade to a typhoon. Right now winds are at 65kts(75mph) and he is moving WSW at 5mph. Prapiroon has the same environment that the major storms before it have had. While the typhoon isn't perfectly organized it could still become a major hurricane strength typhoon. Prapiroon looks to miss Japan but they could see some wave action. Luckily there is a good amount of time to watch the progress of Prapiroon.
A nice warm-up is in store for the US this week. A ridge is building in behind the trough which will allow temperatures to warm back above average. This will be a big difference from the widespread cold temperatures. With the warm-up however comes more fuel for thunderstorms. Add the warmer moister air with some wind shear and higher cape values and you got some severe weather. That is what should happen in the Midwest late in the week. Stay tuned for more information as we get closer to that time frame. Other than that some thunderstorms will be possible in Florida over the next couple days. Also a cold front will come through in the northern states providing some rain. The rest of the country should be relatively quiet.
Have a great Tuesday everyone and I will have a new update tomorrow.
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