Nadine a hurricane, Jelawat weakens, Updated hurrricane scale.
Tropical storm Nadine regained hurricane status at 11am EDT today. Nadine has built an eyewall since yesterday morning. Convection has persisted and even deepened some more, and an eye is becoming evident. A recent ASCAT pass shows Nadine still has a well defined circulation. Currently Nadine has 75mph winds, a 988mb pressure, and she is moving NNW at 14mph.
The structure of Nadine actually represents a minimal hurricane, a first in a while for Nadine. Microwave imagery is showing an eyewall has developed around the center of Nadine. Outflow is present on all sides and is looking great. All signs point to a slowly strengthening hurricane. Nadine will be in a somewhat favorable environment for the next day or two before conditions get worse. I think Nadine has a good chance of strengthening further and becoming a 80mph hurricane before weakening. Some models say some more strengthening could occur and with how she is looking my idea is not a bad one. After today wind shear begins to increase over Nadine which should weaken her back to a tropical storm. Cooler waters will begin to affect Nadine as she heads toward the Azores. No matter how strong Nadine is she should again bring rain and wind to the Azores.
Models have been losing agreement with Nadine's track again. I am cautious on where to take Nadine right now because of model uncertainty. I call for Nadine to make a turn to the N and then meander the ocean for 3-5 days. I think Nadine could make a run for the Azores but I could simply get turned west or to the south. After 5 days there is too much unpredictability to even make a forecast, and the 5 day forecast is low confidence knowing Nadine's past. Nadine should continue to live her days in the Atlantic with her death date unknown.
Norman forms and dies
Tropical storm Norman formed yesterday near the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. Norman had persistent convection, 40mph winds, a closed circulation, and had no association to a front so he was able to be classified even though he looked not good. Norman was able to strengthen a little, 45mph winds, before weakening. Norman is now, barely, a TD and is probably going to be a remnant low at the next advisory. Norman will provide some rain for Mexico and the southern US.
Typhoon Jelawat was one of the strongest and most beautiful tropical cyclones in all of 2012. He got all the way up to a 160mph cat5 super typhoon. He had a solid eyewall and even a pinwheel eye at one time. Luckily typhoon Jelawat weakened on its approach to Okinawa. Jelawat still has dropped heavy rain and really stong winds with videos showing some damage. Jelawat is in unfavorable conditions and will not strengthen as he heads toward Japan. Okinawa will not get as strong wind as previously forecasted but they will still get some impacts. This is same for Japan and that is something neither country needs. Jelawat will continue to weaken due to cooler waters over the next few days. In 1-2 days Jelawat will be flying by Japan and becoming an extra-tropical storm. Models are in a pretty good agreement of where Jelawat will go and how strong, unlike Nadine. I have even made a forecast for Jelawat, this is something I rarely do with pacific storms. Jelawat will become an extra-tropical storm in a couple days.
Updated Hurricane Scale
I have been working on an updated hurricane scale for the past week now. Over this week I have made some changes or fixed some bugs. Earlier today I updated the graphic to easier understand how my rating system works. You can see what column receives points and what ones don't easier and the whole graphic is easier to read. I will begin to look at the technical/ small details of my scale and make changes as needed. You can check out my full blog on it here.
My hurricane scale.
Have a great weekend everyone and I will have a new blog out tomorrow or Monday.