Long-lived Nadine almost a hurricane again, Miriam dissipates, Jelawat weakening

By: wxchaser97 , 12:18 PM GMT on September 28, 2012

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TS Nadine
Nadine has actually been looking like a strong tropical storm over the past day or so. Nadine has improved her circulation and convection has fired over it. Currently the winds are 70mph, a 991mb pressure, and she is moving WNW at 7mph. Nadine will continue to meander around in the Atlantic for at least the next 5 days.

The structure of Nadine actually represents a strong TS to minimal hurricane, a first in a while for Nadine. Microwave imagery is showing an eyewall developing around the center of Nadine. Outflow is present on all sides and is looking great. All signs point to a strengthening tropical storm. Nadine will be in a somewhat favorable environment for the next day or two before conditions get worse. I think Nadine has a good chance of becoming a hurricane and have Nadine becoming one later today/tonight. Some of the models do make Nadine a hurricane and with how she is looking my idea is not a bad one. After tomorrow wind shear begins to increase over Nadine weakening her back to a tropical storm. Cooler waters will begin to affect Nadine as she heads toward the Azores. No matter how strong Nadine is she should again bring rain and wind to the Azores.


Models have been coming into a better agreement for the shorter term forecast. I am somewhere near the middle of the guidance track wise. I call for Nadine to make a turn to the NW and then to the N over the next day or so. After going N for a day or two I have Nadine turning ENE towards the Azores. After that it is too unpredictable to even make a forecast, and this one is low confidence knowing Nadine's past. Nadine should continue to live her days in the Atlantic with her death date unknown.


Post-tropical storm Miriam and 94E
Miriam was once a powerful category 3 hurricane, not anymore. Miriam has fallen due to high shear and cool waters. Right now there is just a naked swirl which is the remnant low. The remnants should not try to redevelop and they won't affect land. Some moister from Miriam's former self will make it into the US providing increased rainfall chances for parts of the US.
94E is losing its chances of development. It was once likely to develop but it never happened. Shear and cooler waters have slowed development with 94E and it is now running out of time. 94E is going to make landfall in about a day which will kill any chances of development. 94E will still bring Mexico and even the US some rain and wind. I give 94E a 70% chance of development over the next 48hrs. The latest TWO now shows 94E will likely get named at 11am.

Typhoon Jelawat
Typhoon Jelawat was one of the strongest and most beautiful tropical cyclones in all of 2012. He got all the way up to a 160mph cat5 super typhoon. He had a solid eyewall and even a pinwheel eye at one time. Every cool thing has to come to an end though, which is great for the people of Okinawa and Japan. An EWRC has been weakening Jelawat and, unlike the last 2, he will not recover from the EWRC. Okinawa will not get as strong wind as previously forecasted but they will still get some impacts. This is same for Japan and that is something neither country needs. Jelawat will continue to weaken due to cooler waters over the next few days. In 3-4 days Jelawat will be flying by Japan and becoming an extra-tropical storm. Models are in a pretty good agreement of where Jelawat will go and how strong, unlike Nadine. I have even made a forecast for Jelawat, this is something I rarely do with pacific storms.



Have a great Friday everyone and I will have a new update tomorrow or Sunday. Here is my blog from 2 days ago on the SS scale, my proposed scale, and hurricane Isaac, Link.
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5. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
5:14 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
wxchaser97 has created a new entry.
4. wxchaser97
3:35 AM GMT on September 29, 2012
Quoting Grothar:
Good graphics and good analysis on Jelawat. and that pesky Nadine. Any time frame on when she will be gone?
Thank you Gro for stopping by. I think we got at least 5-7 more days with Nadine and then she should be gone once an for all.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
3. Grothar
3:32 AM GMT on September 29, 2012
Good graphics and good analysis on Jelawat. and that pesky Nadine. Any time frame on when she will be gone?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26124
2. wxchaser97
7:14 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Good Blog

Thanks.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
1. GeorgiaStormz
1:02 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Good Blog
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727

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About wxchaser97

I'm in high school and love meteorology and extreme weather. I've been fascinated by weather since I was 5, and I plan on becoming a meteorologist.