Nadine still alive

By: wxchaser97 , 11:57 AM GMT on September 27, 2012

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Topical storm Nadine is still moving around in the Atlantic Ocean. She has actually even looked better than she did 12 hours ago. Currently Nadine has 60mph winds, 992mb pressure, and she is moving SW at 6mph. The circulation has became better defined even though convection is limited. This has been the story of Nadine for the past several days of her fluctuations in intensity. Nadine has the second highest amount of ACE in the Atlantic and will likely take the number 1 spot in a few days. Nadine also could become one of longest lived tropical storms/hurricanes in the Atlantic, if not the longest.

The forecast for Nadine is once again not going to be an easy one. Nadine has never been easy to forecast and won't start being easy anytime soon. Right now models are confused as to how long Nadine stays alive and where she goes. Some models take Nadine east while others take her SW or have her doing little movement. Right now I have to try to pick a consensus and make an educated guess. Personally I have just about seen this name enough to start wanting it to go away. Most models however keep Nadine alive for a good amount of time and we will have to see. All I can say is I think Nadine will last for about another week or so and follow somewhat near the NHC track.


Intensity wise Nadine is coming back. Her satellite presentation has been improving throughout the morning. I think Nadine could even do a little more strengthening despite the lack of convection. Nadine is currently over warm water and the environment has lower shear. This would support strengthening if it wasn't for a good amount of dry air in Nadine's way. Over the next couple days the environment will deteriorate and Nadine should weaken. It is possible that the combination of shear, dry air, and cooler waters finally kill her off. I think Nadine should be able to stay alive and after that conditions get a little better. Right now it is just too unpredictable to back a high confidence forecast for Nadine.


Have a great Thursday everyone and I will have a full tropical update later today or tomorrow. Here is the link to my Hurricane Isaac and Saffir-Simpson blog, Link.
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4. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
12:18 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
wxchaser97 has created a new entry.
3. ChemE911
4:45 PM GMT on September 27, 2012
All,

I have developed a new theory on tracking the paths of Hurricanes. I have placed my prediction on my Blog @

http://darkmattersalot.com

I am an engineer with a passion for physics. If I am right, Nadine will track overall towards the SW, an area just north of the Virgin Islands where the current seismic activity is occurring and should increase in intensity as she does. After she passes that area she should dissipate quickly.

Please go easy on me, this is the first prediction I have made applied to my theory.

Stewart D. Simonson
Member Since: September 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5
2. wxchaser97
4:29 PM GMT on September 27, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Interesting.

If only Nadine would go away.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
1. GeorgiaStormz
12:54 PM GMT on September 27, 2012
Interesting.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9730

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About wxchaser97

I'm in high school and love meteorology and extreme weather. I've been fascinated by weather since I was 5, and I plan on becoming a meteorologist.