I'm a CMU Honors student and love meteorology and extreme weather. I've been fascinated by weather since I was 5, and plan on becoming a meteorologist
By: wxchaser97 , 11:57 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
Tropical storm Nadine has not lost her tropical characteristics yet near the Azores. In fact some convection has developed over the center of circulation which could help her over the cooler waters. Currently Nadine has 50mph winds, a 983mb pressure, and is ESE at 9mph. As mentioned above, Nadine's satellite appearance is improving as she turns to the SE. The waters will warm somewhat over the next few days and Nadine could strengthen some and acquire back all of its tropical characteristics. Right now there may be some non-tropical energy getting absorbed into Nadine. The pressure drop may be an explanation for this happening. There is a chance Nadine could turn into a remnant low over the next few days. It would be because of some shear and cooler waters, but I don't find this likely. An upper level low could slide over her and make Nadine into a strong TS like Beryl earlier this year. This is possible but I don't find it too likely. I think Nadine will become extra-tropical over the next few days as she has been trying to already do that. It is possible that she regains tropical characteristics over warmer waters.
Nadine's track is still a pretty difficult forecast. Nadine is still in a weaker steering environment so she could wobble a little. Most models indicate for Nadine to continue to go SE for the next couple days. After 48-72hrs there is little consensus with the models. The GFS ensemble is split and models can't decide too well if she will turn W, E, S, or N. For right now I will go a little farther to the west of the NHC track but nothing is set in stone. No matter what the Azores need to continue to monitor Nadine as they will be receiving impacts regardless of her exact track.
Invest 94L continues to strengthen as is spins hundreds of miles away from Bermuda. This low has some decent convection and a good spin and the environment is conducive for strengthening. I give 94L a high chance, 60%, of becoming a subtropical or tropical storm in the next 48hrs. The NHC gives 94L a medium chance, 40%, of becoming a TC in 48hrs. I feel with the recent organization trends that the probability is higher. However, currently 94L is mostly non-tropical but it is getting tropical characteristics right now. 94L has 35mph winds, a 1010mb pressure, and is moving at 10mph to the WNW per the latest ATCF update. 94L should be able to become a subtropical storm in the next 48hrs. After that it is possible that is stays subtropical or becomes fully tropical. No matter what 94L becomes of 94L it will move to the WNW and the NW and eventually near Canada. People in Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, and even parts of the US need to watch 94L.
My forecast for Nadine and 94L
Have a great day everyone and I'll have another update tomorrow.
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