Nadine and Lane weakening and new ATL AOI

By: wxchaser97 , 11:21 AM GMT on September 19, 2012

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TS Nadine
Over the past few days tropical storm Nadine has been making the transition from tropical to extra-tropical. On satellite Nadine looks extra-tropical but there is probably still some warm core characteristics. Currently Nadine has 50mph winds, a 993mb pressure, and is moving N at 5mph. Cooler waters and high wind shear have made Nadine to continue to weaken. With Nadine not being fully tropical she will behave a little different than to a fully tropical system up here. Some of the indicators for determining cyclone strength suggest Nadine is also turning extra-tropical. She still has a well defined circulation with tropical storm force winds tropical or non-tropical. She should be able to hold her strength more and models don't show much in the way of intensity change. As for track models are unsure of were Nadine will go. The ECMFW(European) model takes Nadine to the west but I think this is unlikely. A more likely solution is a turn to the east and even SE and possibly hit Europe of N Africa. People in the Azores need to be ready for some sort of TS conditions and TS warnings are in effect.



ATL AOI
An area of showers and thunderstorms east of Bermuda needs to be watched. Even though they are associated with a non-tropical low the low could pick up tropical characteristics. As long as it stays over warm ocean waters it has a chance of getting named. Currently the low is moving west at 10mph and is no threat to land.



My Atlantic Outlook



TD Lane
TD Lane is quickly weakening over the open waters of the Eastern Pacific. Cool SST's and shear have quickly weakened Lane from a hurricane to a tropical depression. His center is completely void of convection and this should not change. Currently Lane has 35mph winds, a 1009mb pressure, and is moving WNW at 9mph. Lane should continue to weaken over the next couple days. In a couple days Lane should be a remnant low and he is no threat to land.



Have a great Wednesday and I'll have a tropical update tomorrow and my Isaac and Saffer Simpson scale blog out in the next few days.
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6. wxchaser97
12:25 PM GMT on September 19, 2012
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Thanks for the update...

The only reason I think Nadine will dissipate by 48 hours is that she continues to weaken & be below the NHC intensity forecasts. Its good to point out she doesn't look fully tropical...but IMO I would like to see her on the east side of an upper trough (where non-tropical systems strengthen) before considering Nadine surviving like that. She is forcast by GFS to instead by on the SW side of an upper trough by 48 hours...

You're welcome, we will see who is right:)
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
5. NCHurricane2009
12:24 PM GMT on September 19, 2012
Thanks for the update...

The only reason I think Nadine will dissipate by 48 hours is that she continues to weaken & be below the NHC intensity forecasts. Its good to point out she doesn't look fully tropical...but IMO I would like to see her on the east side of an upper trough (where non-tropical systems strengthen) before considering Nadine surviving like that. She is forcast by GFS to instead by on the SW side of an upper trough by 48 hours...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 445 Comments: 3622
4. wxchaser97
12:20 PM GMT on September 19, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Nope, dry weather.
Lows in the 40s after that next cold front sunday and monday..

Until than next WPac sytem cranks up, or we have a WCarib threat, i will be suffering from severe boredom

There is that Wpac invest and I think we could get a Caribbean storm. I'm sure something will happen soon somewhere.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
3. GeorgiaStormz
12:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

That's one of the reasons why I write these, so people can get an update on the tropics. Jordan, you'll get your weather soon enough.


Nope, dry weather.
Lows in the 40s after that next cold front sunday and monday..

Until than next WPac sytem cranks up, or we have a WCarib threat, i will be suffering from severe boredom
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9721
2. wxchaser97
11:58 AM GMT on September 19, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
My mind left the tropics :(

That's one of the reasons why I write these, so people can get an update on the tropics. Jordan, you'll get your weather soon enough.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
1. GeorgiaStormz
11:55 AM GMT on September 19, 2012
My mind left the tropics :(
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9721

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About wxchaser97

I'm in high school and love meteorology and extreme weather. I've been fascinated by weather since I was 5, and I plan on becoming a meteorologist.

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