Nadine a TS, Lane a hurricane, Very early winter forecast

By: wxchaser97 , 4:58 AM GMT on September 18, 2012

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TS Nadine
Tropical storm Nadine is slowly weakening and turning extra-tropical as she heads toward the Azores. Satellite appearance shows the transition from tropical to post-tropical due to shear and cooler waters. Currently Nadine has 60mph winds, has a 989mb pressure, and is moving NE at 9mph. Convection has been trying to cover the center back up and over the past few hours has been having more success. This convection is weak though and the environment doesn't favor strengthening. Nadine should maintain strength or even weaken slightly over the next 5 days. The track is what will be very difficult. Models are very split on exactly where Nadine will go and if she will be tropical or non-tropical. Nadine should continue to go NE until she gets near the Azores and then, as most models indicate, turn around and head toward the south. Nadine could go SW and turn tropical, go S and slowly turn tropical, or go SE and possibly stay extra-tropical. No matter where Nadine exactly tracks she will bring squally weather to the Azores. Nadine will also most likely be alive for awhile before either dying off or getting picked up by a trough. People in the Azores need to be preparing for possible TS conditions.


Hurricane Lane
Hurricane Lane in the Eastern Pacific is slowly strengthening over open waters. He is expected to weaken soon and be a remnant low in a few days. Currently Lane has 80mph winds, a 989mb pressure, and is moving NNW at 10mph. His appearance on satellite is pretty good right now but should begin to change. Some change is already evident as his eye is starting to dissapear. Lane will turn to the WNW and weaken over the next few days. Lane is not a threat to land and will turn extra-tropical in a few days.


My tropical forecast


Early winter forecast
As summer comes to a close and fall begins winter is close to beginning. Some areas will feel winter conditions in a month or two so it is around time to make my first 2012-2013 winter forecast.

Right now I am thinking we will be in a warm neutral ENSO pattern. This has a great affect on how the winter will shape up. I think we will have a negative PDO and NAO which will allow more cold air to flow down from the Artic. The Great Lakes will see cooler weather with an average to above average snowfall. The NE/Mid Atlantic should see a few Nor'easters this year which would have good snow totals. The plains and upper Midwest could see average to mild weather this winter. In the SW a wet winter with mountain snow is possible and a mild winter in the NW. This forecast will likely change as we get closer to winter and is not an official HPC forecast.

Have a great Tuesday and I will have an update tomorrow plus a blog on the hurricane rating system/changes needed later in the afternoon today.
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15. wxchaser97
11:24 AM GMT on September 19, 2012
Wxchaser97 has made a new blog entry.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
14. wxchaser97
3:32 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
Upgrade to moderate risk

Mesocale Discussion 1960
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
13. wxchaser97
2:31 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Cold and Wet = blizzard of 93 in GA?
We can only hope

I don't think something that severe but some storms down there are possible, thanks for reading.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
12. GeorgiaStormz
2:22 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
Cold and Wet = blizzard of 93 in GA?
We can only hope
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9746
11. wxchaser97
2:11 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
I should add that today has a severe weather event in the Eastern US.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
10. wxchaser97
2:10 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
Quoting ILwthrfan:
I've seen bunches of black willy-worms around here in Illinois. Fingers Crossed for some big snows... Cool Blog. Nadine is far from dead.

Thanks, I'm hoping for more snow and Nadine should be around for a while.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
9. ILwthrfan
1:12 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
I've seen bunches of black willy-worms around here in Illinois. Fingers Crossed for some big snows... Cool Blog. Nadine is far from dead.
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1539
8. wxchaser97
11:11 AM GMT on September 18, 2012
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Thanks for this blog...I hope we get more snow here in MI like your forecast says...I was disappointed by last winter's lack of snow.

For those that don't know me and are confused... I live in MI now even though my handle is "NCH09"....

We all were disappointing, things should be different though this year with average to above average snow I think.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
7. wxchaser97
11:09 AM GMT on September 18, 2012
Quoting pcola57:
Thanks for the update and winter forecast..
I hope the drought areas get the relief they need..

You're welcome, I hope so too.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
6. wxchaser97
11:08 AM GMT on September 18, 2012
Quoting Slamguitar:
Nice write-up. Even an average amount of snow would make me happy, as long as it isn't bawls cold.

Thanks, as long as things are better than last year I'm good.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
5. NCHurricane2009
7:15 AM GMT on September 18, 2012
Thanks for this blog...I hope we get more snow here in MI like your forecast says...I was disappointed by last winter's lack of snow.

For those that don't know me and are confused... I live in MI now even though my handle is "NCH09"....
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 539 Comments: 3712
4. pcola57
6:37 AM GMT on September 18, 2012
Thanks for the update and winter forecast..
I hope the drought areas get the relief they need..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6912
3. Slamguitar
6:02 AM GMT on September 18, 2012
Nice write-up. Even an average amount of snow would make me happy, as long as it isn't bawls cold.
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
2. wxchaser97
5:07 AM GMT on September 18, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:
Lane will beome a remnant low. There's a difference. :P

I also found a spelling mistake that spell check didn't catch, thanks for reading.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
1. KoritheMan
5:04 AM GMT on September 18, 2012
Lane will beome a remnant low. There's a difference. :P
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21230

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About wxchaser97

I'm in high school and love meteorology and extreme weather. I've been fascinated by weather since I was 5, and I plan on becoming a meteorologist.

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