I'm a CMU Honors student and love meteorology and extreme weather. I've been fascinated by weather since I was 5, and plan on becoming a meteorologist
By: wxchaser97 , 12:14 PM GMT on September 14, 2012
Tropical storm Nadine hasn't changed much in the past day as convection and outflow remains around the same. Right now Nadine has 70mph winds, a 988mb pressure, and is moving NNW at 15mph. TAFB has Nadine at 65 knots and SAB has her at 55 knots, so the NHC kept Nadine at 60 knots. Wind shear of around 20 knots is preventing organization into a hurricane. For this storm dry air isn't a problem, but the southerly shear has been and will continue to be for another day or so. High wind shear should continue for another 1-2 days and then relax as called for by most models. This should allow the already decent convection and outflow to improve and allow strengthening. Nadine also needs to still build up her eyewall. Once Nadine does that and shear relaxes we should see Nadine become a hurricane. Models show Nadine strengthening into a hurricane and most keeping her a cat1. I also have Nadine becoming a hurricane as the environment down the road supports intensification. Nadine will be a threat to the Azores. Nadine should be a hurricane when it hits/gets close to those islands. They need to watch the progress of Nadine as she would cause problems to areas already hit from hurricane Gordon earlier this year.
Figure 1: TS Nadine is holding her own against wind shear.
Tropical storm Kristy is in a losing battle against shear and cooler waters. Right now Kristy has 50mph winds and a 1002mb pressure. The convection has been displaced at times and her circulation has been exposed. Things will only go down hill and I think her current intensity is her peak. She is not a threat to land and will dissipate in 4-5 days.
Figure 2: Kristy struggles against cooler SST's and wind shear.
Super typhoon Sanba
Super typhoon Sanba was able to get all the way up to 170mph wind speeds yesterday. This meant that she was the strongest storm this year. Sanba looked perfect and had even got annular characteristics for a little bit. Sanba now has been weakening and her satellite appearance shows this. She is probably not a cat5 but a cat4. Sanba is undergoing an EWRC( eye wall replacement cycle) which is weakening her. Hopefully she will never recover from this and Won't hit Korea/China as hard. Sanba will still produce destructive wind, storm surge, and heavy rain. People in Sanba's forecasted path need to be preparing for a strong typhoon.
Figure 3: Super typhoon Sanba doing an EWRC.
Figure 4: My forecast for Nadine.
Have a great Friday and I'll have an update tomorrow with a couple of special blogs over the weekend.
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