Nadine maintaining strength, Kristy weakening, Sanba peaked

By: wxchaser97 , 12:14 PM GMT on September 14, 2012

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TS Nadine
Tropical storm Nadine hasn't changed much in the past day as convection and outflow remains around the same. Right now Nadine has 70mph winds, a 988mb pressure, and is moving NNW at 15mph. TAFB has Nadine at 65 knots and SAB has her at 55 knots, so the NHC kept Nadine at 60 knots. Wind shear of around 20 knots is preventing organization into a hurricane. For this storm dry air isn't a problem, but the southerly shear has been and will continue to be for another day or so. High wind shear should continue for another 1-2 days and then relax as called for by most models. This should allow the already decent convection and outflow to improve and allow strengthening. Nadine also needs to still build up her eyewall. Once Nadine does that and shear relaxes we should see Nadine become a hurricane. Models show Nadine strengthening into a hurricane and most keeping her a cat1. I also have Nadine becoming a hurricane as the environment down the road supports intensification. Nadine will be a threat to the Azores. Nadine should be a hurricane when it hits/gets close to those islands. They need to watch the progress of Nadine as she would cause problems to areas already hit from hurricane Gordon earlier this year.

Figure 1: TS Nadine is holding her own against wind shear.

TS Kristy
Tropical storm Kristy is in a losing battle against shear and cooler waters. Right now Kristy has 50mph winds and a 1002mb pressure. The convection has been displaced at times and her circulation has been exposed. Things will only go down hill and I think her current intensity is her peak. She is not a threat to land and will dissipate in 4-5 days.

Figure 2: Kristy struggles against cooler SST's and wind shear.

Super typhoon Sanba
Super typhoon Sanba was able to get all the way up to 170mph wind speeds yesterday. This meant that she was the strongest storm this year. Sanba looked perfect and had even got annular characteristics for a little bit. Sanba now has been weakening and her satellite appearance shows this. She is probably not a cat5 but a cat4. Sanba is undergoing an EWRC( eye wall replacement cycle) which is weakening her. Hopefully she will never recover from this and Won't hit Korea/China as hard. Sanba will still produce destructive wind, storm surge, and heavy rain. People in Sanba's forecasted path need to be preparing for a strong typhoon.

Figure 3: Super typhoon Sanba doing an EWRC.


Figure 4: My forecast for Nadine.

Have a great Friday and I'll have an update tomorrow with a couple of special blogs over the weekend.
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7. wxchaser97
4:59 AM GMT on September 18, 2012
Wxchaser97 has created a new blog entry.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7887
6. wxchaser97
11:01 PM GMT on September 14, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
"Tropical storm Nadine hasn't changed much in the past day. Convection and outflow remains around the same" -- You could combine these two sentences.

"Right now Nadine has 70mph winds, a 988mb pressure, and is moving NNW @ 15mph. TAFB had Nadine at 65 konts and SAB had her at 55 konts so the NHC kept Nadine at 60 konts." -- Comma after "now", use "at" instead of "@". Knots...not konts. Comma after the second knots.

"For this storm dry air isn't a problem, but the southernly shear has been and will continue to be for another day or so." -- Southerly, not southernly.

Too lazy to correct the rest.

I thought you were in High School! >:|

Wow today was bad with grammatical/spelling errors, thanks for pointing them out. Also thanks for reading my blog, the errors are corrected.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7887
5. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:44 PM GMT on September 14, 2012
"Tropical storm Nadine hasn't changed much in the past day. Convection and outflow remains around the same" -- You could combine these two sentences.

"Right now Nadine has 70mph winds, a 988mb pressure, and is moving NNW @ 15mph. TAFB had Nadine at 65 konts and SAB had her at 55 konts so the NHC kept Nadine at 60 konts." -- Comma after "now", use "at" instead of "@". Knots...not konts. Comma after the second knots.

"For this storm dry air isn't a problem, but the southernly shear has been and will continue to be for another day or so." -- Southerly, not southernly.

Too lazy to correct the rest.

I thought you were in High School! >:|
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30259
4. wxchaser97
7:15 PM GMT on September 14, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
If you teacher ever reads this.......Isaac is a bad bad boy when he is not in school

:D

jk.

It's a good thing then I told her to check my blog out:0
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7887
3. wxchaser97
7:14 PM GMT on September 14, 2012
Oh great I come home from English class to find English doesn't want to leave me;). Thanks for coming here guys.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7887
2. GeorgiaStormz
1:38 PM GMT on September 14, 2012
If you teacher ever reads this.......Isaac is a bad bad boy when he is not in school

:D

jk.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9453
1. weatherh98
12:26 PM GMT on September 14, 2012
"For this storm dry air isn't a problem, but the southernly shear"

I'm no English teacher but that is not two independent clauses

A verb would be nice there:)


COULD YOU SPELL OUT THE WORD KNOTS OR USE KT

LIKE THE REST OF THE WORLD;)

"Hopefully she will never recover from this and Won't hit Korea/China as hard."

The chances of it not intensifying after EWRC are pretty low... Always hold out hope for south Korea... I don care about north korea or china to much though:)
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439

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About wxchaser97

I'm in high school and love meteorology and extreme weather. I've been fascinated by weather since I was 5, and I plan on becoming a meteorologist.

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