Leslie slowly weakening, Michael holding his own, new AOI

By: wxchaser97 , 4:21 AM GMT on September 08, 2012

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TS Leslie
TS Leslie has been slowly moving northward over the past few days. Not much has been happening with her as different problems have kept her at bay. Leslie did become a 75mph hurricane for a while but lost some integrity and weakened back to a TS. Right now Leslie has 65mph winds and a pressure of 983mb. Leslie is in a way like Isaac, both had lower pressures for their wind speeds. Leslie right now is still having issues. Dry air intrusion is causing a lack of thunderstorms over the center and a comma like shape. The dry air and some shear are preventing Leslie from becoming a hurricane again. Also Leslie does not have a solid core. This is also preventing her from strengthening a lot and making her more prone to dry air and shear. I don't see Leslie ever strengthening more than a cat1. There are too many factors that support against any major strengthening. Leslie should move to the east of Bermuda and provide some impacts. They won't be bad and Bermuda will be just fine. Leslie will begin to race off to the NNE and then NE due to a trough that pulls her away. Leslie could bring TS impacts to parts of Canada. Leslie will then begin to interact with Michael and turn into a strong extra-tropical storm.


Hurricane Michael
Hurricane Michael is slowly weakening as he churns the north Atlantic. Michael is being affected by cooler waters and some shear. He is still maintaining strength with only slight weakening. Right now Michael has 100mph winds and a 974mb pressure. He has a rugged eye and decent convection despite the environment. He will move off the NW and weaken. Michael is not a threat to land and will be gone in 4-5 days.


AOI's
90L: Invest 90L is currently spinning in the gulf. It has a 20% chance of developing in the nest 48hrs by the NHC and a 10% chance by me. The center is void of convection and dry air and shear will only become more of a problem. Not much will come from 90L but it still needs to be watched for now.


African AOI: A new wave has emerged over Africa. It is a vigorous wave and is a threat to develop. Most global models develop this into a TS but recurve it out to sea. This wave needs to be watched for development and any threat to land.


I'll have two blog updates tomorrow, one on the tropics and one on the severe weather outbreak.
Have a great weekend everyone!
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4. wxchaser97
9:57 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
thx

You're welcome!
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7885
3. GeorgiaStormz
5:39 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
thx
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9451
2. wxchaser97
4:27 AM GMT on September 08, 2012
Quoting Dragod66:
pretty good ... i still think leslie will pull it together tho

I'll see in the morning, if she is getting way better I might put in second thoughts but if she is the same then I don't think too much strengthening will happen. Thanks!
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7885
1. Dragod66
4:25 AM GMT on September 08, 2012
pretty good ... i still think leslie will pull it together tho
Member Since: August 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 575

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About wxchaser97

I'm in high school and love meteorology and extreme weather. I've been fascinated by weather since I was 5, and I plan on becoming a meteorologist.

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