Leslie holding her own, Kirk turning extra-tropical, new invest
We are now nearing the peak date and there are a few areas to talk about. TS Leslie formed a few days ago and gave us 8 storms for August. For now Leslie has peaked at 70mph and has been weakening. Right now Leslie has 60mph winds, 998mb pressure, and is moving NW @ 10mph.For a couple days Leslie had been looking good and steadily intensifying. Then strong wind shear came along and changed Leslie's plans. Her center is now exposed and all the convection is on the south side of the storm. Her winds have came down and the pressure came up due to this. Leslie will be in a sheared environment for a few more days and possibly weaken a little more or stay the same. After shear decreases Leslie should take off in intensity. Leslie will continue to slowly go to the north west the nest few days. Once she gets near Bermuda, possibly as a strong hurricane, then it is likely that she stalls. A trough will eventually come and pull Leslie out and turn her into a big extra-tropical storm if the models are correct. There is a low chance for a US hit and a higher chance for Canada. People in Bermuda, US, and Canada need to watch Leslie closely.
Post-TS Kirk & 99L
TS Kirk has official lost all tropical characteristics and the final advisory has been written. Kirk has 50mph winds, 1002mb pressure, and is moving at a very fast 47mph. Looking at the satellite you can tell Kirk has made the transition. Kirk will not be a threat to land and will quickly get absorbed into the trough.
An invest had formed last night and it was tagged 99L. It is currently over the northern Atlantic and is so far not a threat to land. It has a tight small circulation but there isn't a lot of convection. The NHC give it a 10% chance of development but I give it a 20% chance. I do because these small systems wrap up quickly and we have had other storms in that area this year. We will have to watch 99L to see if it tries to develop.
My forecast and outlook:
I'll have a new update tomorrow, have a safe Labor Day weekend!