Special Update: Isaac weakens to a TD, Kirk rapidly strengthens, Leslie intensifing
Since the tropics are really active and really changing I'm doing a special update. I will try to do 1-4 blogs every 1-2 days depending on the amount/severity of storms.
TS Isaac has weakened to TD Isaac. Isaac now has 35mph winds, a 995mb pressure and is moving NNW @ 12mph. Isaac continues to dump heavy rain in the south with lots of flooding. Numerous reports of flooding and rescues have come from Isaac and people still need to take Isaac seriously. A tornado threat still exists with Isaac's outer bands. A tornado watch is in effect for most of MS and small parts of AL and LA. Isaac will turn to the north and then east as he weakens and accelerates. He should bring beneficial rain to parts of the south and Ohio valley. This will be one of the last updates on Isaac as he is really weakening and will go post-tropical in a couple days.
Hurricane Kirk has been rapidly intensifying today continuing to strengthen. As of the 5pm advisory Kirk is a category 1 hurricane with 90mph winds, 982mb, and NNW @ 13mph. Right now data is supporting a category 2 hurricane but we will have to wait for the next advisory. Kirk will continue to strengthen over the next 2 days and I think he will become the season's first major hurricane. His satellite appearance shows convection increasing/deepening on all sides and a small but clear eye. Kirk will not affect land but is a good storm to track. He will turn extra-tropical in a 3-4 days and then weaken.
Right now TS Leslie is slowly intensifying. Currently she has 45mph winds, 1004mb pressure and is moving W @ 21mph per the latest NHC advisory. Leslie looks to be slowing down and possibly turn WNW, this has to be watched. Data looks to support 50knts for the next advisory. Leslie has been nicely developing convection and organizing her circulation. Steady intensifying should continue over the next few days. Most likely Leslie should go north of the islands and then out to sea. Its possible that Leslie hit the US and less like goes into the Caribbean. Leslie looks to be the first classic Cape Verde hurricane. People need to watch her as she is a possible threat to land. Models have been continuing to develop more storms and we are in a very active period. With a mjo pulse and climatology speaking I think a 17/10/4 prediction for the number of storms is likely.
I'll have a new update tomorrow on Isaac, Kirk, and Leslie. Here is my forecast:
Have a safe night and hopefully everyone is ok from Isaac. Insured losses are now estimated at $1.5 billion and is expected to rise.