TD7 formes and Ernesto moves inland

By: wxchaser97 , 10:51 PM GMT on August 09, 2012

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TD7:
Invest 92L has been renumbered and named TD7 by the NHC. TD7 has 35mph winds, 1010mb pressure and is moving W @ 20mph. TD7 has a well defined llc and convection has been building over it. Organization trends throughout the day have been increasing and the NHC decided that the low was depression status worthy. TD7 is in a relatively favorable environment for gradual strengthening and TD7 could be TS Gordon tomorrow. Shear has been fairly low and sst's are warm but dry air is a factor. TD7 has been able to overcome this dry air and not much should stop this from organizing. In the short term TD7 will move W and steadily but slowly strengthen. Once it gets in the Caribbean it will have the same problem as Ernesto, trade winds. The trade winds should keep TD7 from becoming a major system in the Caribbean. Steering patterns could lead TD7 into the gulf and then all bets are of. A serious system could arise if TD7 makes it into the gulf. People in the Caribbean and gulf need to watch the progress of TD7 and need to start thinking about their hurricane plans/prep.


TS ERNESTO:
TS Ernesto made landfall earlier today near Coatzacoalcos, MX with 60mph winds. When he made landfall in the Yucatan he was likely stronger but since recon had mechanical problems we don't know the true intensity. Ernesto has dropped heavy rain and some wind but luckily not much damage reports have came from Mexico. Ernesto should weaken but he may redevelop in the epac. If he does he won't be a threat to land. People in S MX still need to watch for minor wind damage, flooding, and land/mudslides.


SPECIAL FEATURES:
Ex-Florence: A tropical wave, the remnants of Florence, is producing vigorous but disorganized showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles north of the Leeward Islands. Environment conditions are not really favorable and major development is not expected but it still needs to be watched.

African wave: A tropical wave is emerging off the African landmass. Right now the wave is looking good but the land to ocean transition and some dry air will limit develop for now. I give this area a 30% chance of development in the next 48 hours.

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6. wxchaser97
11:23 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting TexNowNM:
Thanks again for an easy to read, consisly written blog that I can understand.

Your welcome, I try to make it detailed but easy to read.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
5. wxchaser97
11:22 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting hurrtracker1994:
I like your forecast cone! How did you do it?

Used MS piant, WU/NHC chart, uploaded it to WU or a photo site. Thanks for coming.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
4. wxchaser97
11:21 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:
Agree with your assessment on pre 93-L. I've yet to analyze TD7 today, so I can't really comment on that.

Thanks, it will have some difficulties.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
3. TexNowNM
11:16 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Thanks again for an easy to read, consisly written blog that I can understand.
Member Since: October 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 179
2. hurrtracker1994
11:10 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
I like your forecast cone! How did you do it?
Member Since: May 23, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 128
1. KoritheMan
11:10 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Agree with your assessment on pre 93-L. I've yet to analyze TD7 today, so I can't really comment on that.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19911

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About wxchaser97

I'm in high school and love meteorology and extreme weather. I've been fascinated by weather since I was 5, and I plan on becoming a meteorologist.