I'm a CMU Honors student and love meteorology and extreme weather. I've been fascinated by weather since I was 5, and plan on becoming a meteorologist
By: wxchaser97 , 1:58 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
TS Ernesto right now has 70mph winds, 993mb pressure, and is moving WSW @ 13mph. His satellite appearance is improving, convection is increasing, pressures are dropping, and his circulation has became more defined. He may be a 75mph hurricane right now and recon is in the storm as of now. His only problem is land interaction as he is skirting the coast right now. He will likely make landfall in the next few hours if not already. I saw a 75mph hurricane coming in around Coatzacoalcos. Ernesto is bringing a heavy rain and wind threat to S MX and anyone affected should follow all precautions and listen to officials. Once he moves inland he should rapidly weaken and dissipate in about a day. He will still have a flooding and land/mudslide threat. This should be one of the last times Ernesto is mentioned much here.
An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure have been numbered invest 92L. 92L has been increasing its organization and looks like a tropical depression. Though shear is favorable 92L has to contend with dry air. Another problem is the coc is moving away from convection but convection should re-cover the coc. Since dry air should be the only inhibiting factor I give 92L an 80% in the couple days. 92L will be headed WNW for the next couple days. As it gets further west it should be stronger and may move a more NW since a high pressure will be to it's east. Right now it is too hard to tell exactly where it could go so anyone in the Caribbean and the east coast needs to watch this for development.
Ex- Florence is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms right now. Even though it is in a high shear environment and it is only a T-wave it could develop later. It does have a good vorticity value and it could surprise someone and re-develop. Even though it is unlikely it still deserves to be watched.
A tropical wave is about to exit the African mainland and enter the Atlantic ocean. This is the wave the gfs has been developing for a while. There is a spin and some convection and certainly has at least a chance of development. This needs to be watched closely and so do trends in model runs.
I'll have another update in the next day and a complete update on Saturday as I'm gone on Sunday.
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