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By: wxchaser97 , 5:53 PM GMT on October 30, 2013
Post-tropical Storm Raymond
Raymond has became a remnant low hundreds of miles off the Mexican coast. The circulation has become less defined on satellite images and is void of deep convection. Since my last blog update, Raymond had reintensified into a category 2 hurricane. Once it entered favorable atmospheric conditions, it was able to RI, developing a defined eye and eyewall. As Raymond turned NW, it entered a region of higher vertical shear and less favorable thermodynamic environment. The turn to the NW, and then NE, was in response to an incoming trough from the north. The continuation of an unfavorable environment led to the deterioration of the convective structure. Raymond was declared post-tropical this morning since it no longer fit the criteria of a tropical cyclone. The remnant circulation should slowly dissipate over the next couple days as it moves slowly over the open waters of the Epac. Remnant mid-level moister from Raymond is getting pulled to the north into Mexico and the southern US as Raymond interacts with the trough. Models did fairly well with the evolution of Raymond. The track of Raymond was predicted pretty well, but the rapid intensification episodes where hard to predict. The latest satellite image of Raymond can be seen below.
An area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles SW of Manzanillo, Mexico. Satellite images show that the cloud pattern of this system continues to organize. An area of low pressure also looks to be forming in this area. The AOI should have a pretty favorable environment for development for the next several days. Besides being over warm SST's, the AOI should be in the diffluent zone of the trough to the north, enhancing divergence over the system. This trough should also have an influence in the steering of this system, taking a NW path until turning NE around the southern Baja Peninsula. Most models are showing development of this system over the next few days. It is appearing increasingly likely that the Epac should see Sonia in the next few days. This system would bring more rain to areas that have already gotten rain from several tropical systems this year.
Chance of development in the next 48hrs: 30%
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