Tropical depression 11L disorganized

By: wxchaser97 , 3:02 AM GMT on September 30, 2013

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It has been about a month and a half since my last blog on the tropics. During the time I haven't blogged, we had a moderate TS (Fernand) in the BOC, a quick TD in the S GOM, a weak TS in the E Caribbean (Gabrielle) a weak hurricane in the BOC (Ingrid), and a moderate category 1 hurricane (Humberto) in the open Atlantic. Besides some life-threatening flooding in Mexico, not much consequence has came out of these storms. Not to down play on the heavy rain, flooding, deaths that the series of tropical disturbances have brought to Mexico, but there hasn't been much in the way of strong tropical cyclones in this part of the world. Today, it is the evening of the 29th on the East Coast of the US, and the epic 2013 hurricane season continues. There are only two active tropical cyclones across the globe, TD 11L and Typhoon Wutip. Typhoon Wutip is a strong category 1 equivalent typhoon that is poised to hit Vietnam sometime tomorrow. What was once a Cat 2-3 equivalent storm, dry air disrupted the core and has caused some weakening. Strong winds and heavy rain are still expected in parts of SE Asia.

Tropical Depression Eleven
Onto the Atlantic, which has been pretty dull lately. Currently, TD 11L is meandering in the middle of the Atlantic. The structure of 11L is not that organized, even for a tropical depression. The surface circulation is on the western edge of the convection and there is still little to no banding present. Moreover, an OSCAT pass from about 12hrs ago compared to about 24hrs ago shows the surface wind field a little more broad/weaker. Satellite estimates from CIMSS ADT, TAFB, and SAB continue to indicate a 30kt TD. The current advisory information on 11L can be found below, along with a satellite and microwave image.

11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 29
Location: 27.0°N 47.0°W
Moving: ENE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

Forecast for TD 11L
The forecast for TD11 isn't optimistic, but in 2013, what is? The depression is currently getting impacted by moderate shear from the west. This has caused an east-weighted tropical system. The shear is being induced by the upper-level low to the depression's NW. Looking at past environmental trends and global model runs, it doesn't look like there will be too much improvement in the upper air pattern. However, it may abate enough over the next 2-3 days to allow 11L to strengthen into TS Jerry. Convection has been periodically bursting over the center, but it eventually gets sheared off to the east to have the precess begin again. Also, low to mid level RH values aren't particularly favorable either or are they expected to become favorable. There should still be enough moisture to allow for convective development, but it isn't ideal for lots of strengthening. Drier than normal low to mid RH levels of the atmosphere have been a problem this year, especially in most of the MDR. This seems to be one of factors that has suppressed tropical development in most of the Atlantic. The only area that has had far above average RH values is the Southern Gulf of Mexico/far Western Caribbean and there has been a plethora of tropical activity here. SST's are running between 27C and 28C and are expected to remain favorable for the forecast period. SST's are running above average in this part of the Atlantic, which is one of the few pluses for TD 11L. Global models are showing strengthening, albeit minimal, of the depression. On the other hand, the SHIPS and LGEM show 11L becoming a strong TS by the end of the forecast period. As much as I'd like to see 11L strengthen into a strong TS/hurricane, conditions don't look favorable to support this and I only expect a little strengthening over the next three days. As 11L turns to the northeast late in the forecast period, southwesterly shear should increase due to an approaching trough should slowly weaken the system. My intensity is very close to the NHC forecast. There is some concern that 11L could dissipate before the end of the forecast period, as shown by the Euro, but for now will keep 11L alive for the entire 5 days.

Tropical Depression 11L has turned to the east rather than the northeast motion from the past couple days. This is in response to the large-scale trough in the Northern Atlantic slowly lifting out allowing riding to build in the general vicinity of 11L. This has also caused the forward motion of 11L to slow some. The area of weaker steering should persist for a few days until a mid-level trough is forecast to pick up 11L and send it to the NE. Most of the models, including the GFS and ECMWF, are showing a cyclonic loop of sorts to occur over the next day or two. The models are in good agreement with the track over the next 5 days and there isn't much reason to diverge from the model consensus for now. 11L isn't a threat to any land areas for the next 5 days. Due to time constraints, I am not able to do a forecast graphic for 11L. The only difference really between the NHC and me is that I am a little to the left of the NHC in days 4 and 5.

Forecast Intensity
INIT 30/0300Z 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH


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4. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:40 AM GMT on October 01, 2013
Hello Detroit!

Im here after a big while
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14875
3. wxchaser97
3:31 AM GMT on October 01, 2013
Quoting 1. Astrometeor:
Yay! You updated your blog!

Question: Are you doing Tropical Cyclone Reports this year?

Didn't even notice this comment 'till now. Yes, I am most likely doing some TCR's in conjunction with Kori and Cody.
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2. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:22 AM GMT on October 01, 2013
wxchaser97 has created a new entry.
1. Astrometeor
3:07 AM GMT on October 01, 2013
Yay! You updated your blog!

Question: Are you doing Tropical Cyclone Reports this year?
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I'm in high school and love meteorology and extreme weather. I've been fascinated by weather since I was 5, and I plan on becoming a meteorologist.

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