Ernesto makes landfall, 92L/post Florence, and new African wave

By: wxchaser97 , 6:07 AM GMT on August 08, 2012

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Hurricane Ernesto made landfall in Costa Maya, MX around 11:00pm EDT/ 03:00 UTC. Ernesto had winds of 85mph and had a pressure of 980mb. His structure at landfall was impressive and he was likely stronger than an 85mph hurricane. We may never know his true strength since recon had difficulties in Biloxi and left the runway which meant they couldn't get any readings. If Ernesto was in the N Caribbean for 6-12 more hours we may have had a major hurricane so the Yucatan is lucky. Hopefully everyone followed all warnings and there is little damage/ no loss of life. Ernesto is dumping heavy rain and wind on all of the Yucatan and it should take around 24hours to clear the Yucatan and enter the BOC. From there Ernesto should restrengthen to an 85-95mph hurricane depending on how much luster he loses over land. I think Ernesto will make landfall between Veracruz and Tampico.

Ex Florence and invest 92L are both in the E Atlantic and both have a chance at development. Her remnants have shown convection from time to time but the environment is harsh and re-development is unlikely and shouldn't affect any land with major impacts. Do not though forget her remnants as she may try to come back in a few days.
Invest 92L is looking decent and has a modest environment and could become the next TS. If this were to happen then it would be Gordon. Convection has been pretty consistent and it has a nice spin. It could take a path similar to Ernesto or a little farther north. All models running on this turn it into a TS so the Caribbean Islands need to watch this as well. The NHC and I give 92L a 30% chance of development in the next 48hours.


Finally the GFS has been very consistent with developing multiple Cape Verde storms and sending them toward the East Coast. Depending on if 92L develops or not they would be Gordon, Helene, and Isaac or Helene, Isaac, and Joyce. This year when the GFS has been consistent with something it usually happens and this scenario needs to be watched. The first wave is currently over Africa now and is already looking like a tropical system. Things could get very interesting over the next couple weeks.

I will be back with an update on Ernesto tomorrow morning/early afternoon and a full update in the next day or so. Once again I'll be gone between the 12th to the 17th and may not be able to write any update or be on the Doc's blog.

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8. wxchaser97
12:56 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
Nice blog we better watch invest 92L!!

Thanks, yes we should.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
6. wxchaser97
1:41 PM GMT on August 08, 2012
Quoting Slamguitar:
Nice blog. I agree with the percentages, and I like your Ernesto track and how it looks.

Thanks Slam!
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
5. Slamguitar
7:58 AM GMT on August 08, 2012
Nice blog. I agree with the percentages, and I like your Ernesto track and how it looks.
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
4. wxchaser97
6:29 AM GMT on August 08, 2012
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Nice job wxchaser. I agree sometimes getting actual data at landfall is hard to do. With Rita all the readings were "before instrument failure." Some of the instruments at the airports and buoys haven't worked since. Hopefully they'll be no need to check them this season. But as you say looks like a busy time to come. :)

Thanks for stopping by, as long as not much happens to that area I guess I'm fine with the intensity. Anyway it still could do something in the BOC. Everyone needs to be on guard as we are reaching peak season.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
3. AtHomeInTX
6:22 AM GMT on August 08, 2012
Nice job wxchaser. I agree sometimes getting actual data at landfall is hard to do. With Rita all the readings were "before instrument failure." Some of the instruments at the airports and buoys haven't worked since. Hopefully they'll be no need to check them this season. But as you say looks like a busy time to come. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 671
2. wxchaser97
6:13 AM GMT on August 08, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:
92L is the one to watch for now. Assuming the trades aren't too strong when it reaches the Caribbean, there's little reason it could not become a hurricane.

Yup, our next storm probably our next hurricane. Things are going to get even busier these next few weeks.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
1. KoritheMan
6:12 AM GMT on August 08, 2012
92L is the one to watch for now. Assuming the trades aren't too strong when it reaches the Caribbean, there's little reason it could not become a hurricane.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 550 Comments: 19776

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About wxchaser97

I'm in high school and love meteorology and extreme weather. I've been fascinated by weather since I was 5, and I plan on becoming a meteorologist.