Sandy made landfall as a historic storm
Hurricane Sandy has made landfall near Atlantic City, NJ with 75-80mph winds. Sandy now has 40-45mph winds and advisories are being issued by the HPC. Sandy was in the process of transitioning extra-tropical and was declared post-tropical just before landfall. Recon was finding hurricane force winds but Sandy becoming cold-core. The cool shelf waters and baroclinic energy was the catalyst for the transition. Sandy had a record TS force wind radius, just one record Sandy broke. Her large size and winds field also created a big storm surge for some areas. Sandy continues inland with gusty winds and heavy rain but she is weakening rather quickly. Wind and rain is still impacting the Great Lakes and NE and this will continue for another day or two. Sandy was pretty well on track with my forecast track and intensity, just a little to the south. Models had a good handle on track but kept initializing her too weak, thus they showed a pressure that was higher than it actually was. I felt that the NHC and NWS did their job in issuing warnings and how they handled Sandy. Sandy is a very historic storm and she won't soon be forgotten.
Hurricane Sandy has done a big amount of damage to the Mid Atlantic and NE. Sandy's storm surge, wind, and even rain have created big problems. Her storm surge is her greatest impact and that is what she will be remembered for the most. Battery Park was flooded more than Irene was able to and many other places flooded more than Irene. Battery Park reached 13.88 feet and other stations reached 11-14 feet. This is a little higher than what the NHC had predicted, but they did send out a big message before the surge. Many places in zones A, B, and possibly even C have flooded in NYC. Numerous cars are under water and building flooded. The NYC subway system has flooded and the flooding was confirmed by MTA. The economic effects of the surge in NYC alone will be devastating. Historic water levels were reached and it has had devastating results. The WTC site, tunnels/subways, businesses, landmarks, airports, and homes are under water. Fires have broke out including a 100 house fire in Queens. That fire has been put out mostly but fires from downed power lines are still possible. People have been killed in the NYC area, mostly dues to downed trees. New York, though, wasn't the only area that saw major flooding. Ocean City and Atlantic City are both totally under water. Long Island, CT, RI, and MA have all seen ocean flooding. Even Cleveland, OH and parts of MI have seen lake flooding from Sandy. Wind has knocked out power to over 8 million people and this number continues to rise. Trees and power lines have been knocked down all over the eastern US. Millions of people will be spending the night in the dark. More details will continue to emerge and I still can't cover everything yet. We must hope that no more deaths are confirmed and no more damage occurs. I expect that final damage costs may rise to over 75 billion dollars. Right now nearly 50 people are dead and 8.2 million without power in 17 states. While the power number is dropping the deaths could rise. I even have family in NYC so I am personally touched by Sandy. She is doing fine but she is without power and transportation. This is a dangerous situation and will continue to only get worse as damage searches and surveys happen. My thoughts go out to those who have been affected by Sandy.
Have a great day everyone and I will have a new update tomorrow. This blog was originally written in the morning but internet problems didn't allow me to post this entry until now.
Updated: 10:34 AM GMT on October 31, 2012
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Sandy strengthens and remains a very significant threat
Hurricane Sandy has continued to organize overnight. She has established a CDO with an eye present at times. Sandy continues to be a significant threat to the Mid Atlantic and the NE. She could be a historic storm with massive consequences. Currently Sandy has 85mph winds, a 946mb pressure, and she is moving N at 15mph. Aircraft recon is currently investigating Sandy to see if she is strengthening further.
Hurricane Sandy has made great strides in organization over the last day. An inner core has developed and persisted along with a CDO forming. This recent organization is due to conditions becoming marginally favorable. Wind shear has been decreasing over Sandy, noted by UW-CIMSS wind shear maps. You can also tell shear has decreased as there are not as many high clouds moving rapidly over Sandy. Sandy is also over the Gulf stream, an area of warmer waters that flows from the Gulf of Mexico, which is good for strengthening. ASCAT, OSCAT, and recon have confirmed that Sandy still has a strong circulation. Recon has found flight-level winds near 115mph at times, but those winds aren't mixing down to the surface. However, the building convection over Sandy should be able to mix some of those winds down to the surface. I think Sandy should be able to strengthen a little more while she is still tropical. I also think Sandy will remain fully tropical until just after landfall. With the structure of Sandy looking more tropical in nature my thinking is likely. Tropical or non-tropical, Sandy will be deadly. Areas in Sandy's path may experience winds a little higher than previously expected due to the uptick in organization. No matter how strong Sandy is at landfall a big area will receive TS force winds. Sandy is one of, if not the largest, hurricane/TS on record for wind radius. Any increase in the winds will allow just a little more to be spread out. Another reason for some intensification is some baroclinic energy being pumped into Sandy. A negatively tilted trough over the eastern US is responsible for this energy. This energy should lower the pressure, widen the wind field, but lower the maximum winds. It should also aid in the extra-tropical process for Sandy. I don't see the winds dropping off until landfall but it will happen pretty quickly when it does. I am a little slower in weakening Sandy since she will be receiving the baroclinic energy. Winds will be a pretty big threat with Sandy since they cover a large area.
The track of Sandy is still not totally straight forward. Models have a great consensus on the track of Sandy. They say Sandy should make a landfall in S NJ. However, Sandy might have other ideas in where she wants to go. Sandy has been tracking east of the models and NHC forecast point for the past day. This could lead to a slightly later turn to the NW. I think a C NJ landfall is likely at this point due to this but Sandy could still track into S NJ. The negatively tilted trough is in the process in turning Sandy to the NW. This is unusual in the NE as most storms are turned out to sea, not inland. A ridge off to the E stops Sandy from recurving to the right and the negatively tilted trough helps steer to the NW. The NHC has done a different approach with warnings issued in the NE than other storms. Due to Sandy likely turning extra-tropical near landfall they have not issued hurricane/TS warnings. They have left the warning process up to the NWS offices to issue hurricane wind warnings/storm warnings. To me this is an iffy call but the NHC/NWS are the experts, not me. The effects of Sandy remain the same in the NE no matter what warnings are issued or what sandy is classified. A major storm surge threat is expected in NJ, NY, and surrounding areas. Low lying areas have been evacuated to higher ground as up to 12 feet of surge is possible in some spots. The NYC subway system is at a moderate to high risk of flooding. If that happens then there will be major economic losses from Sandy, hopefully it doesn't flood. Heavy rain won't be a major threat from Sandy but it is there. Up to 10" of rain can be expected in some areas which will cause some flooding. Even a snowstorm is likely in the mountains with 1-2 feet of snow possible. The winds will cause large amounts of damage to trees and power lines. We will need to monitor the situation closely for the next few days. If you are told to leave by officials, PLEASE LEAVE. Do not ignore warnings/officials and think you can ride out the storm. This is a very dangerous situation and lives will be lost. Do anything you can to protect yourself and your family.
Have a great day everyone and stay safe.
Sandy slowly turning extra-tropical; Historical storm possible
Sandy's satellite appearance has degraded throughout the day. High wind shear has exposed the center of circulation and has tilted the storm. The maximum sustained winds have decreased due to the loss of convection over the center. Nevertheless, Sandy still has a closed vigorous circulation and is fully warm core so she remains a hurricane. Currently Sandy has 75mph winds, a 969mb pressure, and she is moving NNE at 7mph. Aircraft recon is investigating Sandy to determine her strength. Sandy could be a historic storm and she needs to be taken seriously.
Structure of Sandy
As stated above, wind shear in impacting Sandy in negative ways. UW-CIMSS shear map shows a ULL and trough shearing Sandy from the south and the west. Water vapor imagery shows dry air on the south side of the circulation. Cooler SST values and lower TCHP values aren't giving Sandy as much fuel for strengthening as earlier. These factors have lead to the winds decreasing and the southern side of Sandy to be without deep thunderstorms. In short, Sandy is weakening right now and is slowly turning extra-tropical. All is not bad with Sandy though, she is still a minimal hurricane. Convection may be trying to recover the center but that has to be watched in case it is blown away again. Aircraft recon has found that winds are still around 70-75mph and that the circulation is closed. They have also found that Sandy remains a fully warm core storm. As long as Sandy keeps a warm core and a closed vigorous circulation she will remain a tropical storm or hurricane. There is light at the end of the tunnel for Sandy over the next few days. Sandy will be getting over the gulf stream which should allow some strengthening. Also she should be able to mix out some dry air which would allow thunderstorms to move over the center. I think Sandy should weaken to a tropical storm due to poor conditions and not so good organization right now. However, I think Sandy can regain hurricane strength before turning post-tropical. Her wind field will be increasing even more as she heads off toward the NE. She already has an impressive wind field and the extra-tropical process will make it bigger. Strong winds will continue to be felt over a big area. Sandy will be entering a baroclinic zone over the next few days from a trough over the US. This baroclinic energy will be the final straw for Sandy's tropical life. Sandy won't be tropical over cold shelf waters and being feed by non-tropical energy near the US coast. Tropical or not, Sandy will still have the same impacts(see impact section for more details). We need to continue to monitor the structure of Sandy to see if any changes occur.
Models and track
Models have come into great agreement that Sandy will hit the East Coast. They suggest a landfall near NYC to NJ to Delmarva area. The timing of landfall is predicted to be in about 4 days or so. Strength could range from a cat2 equivalent storm to a moderate to strong TS equivalent storm. They predict major impacts would arise from Sandy and her post-tropical self. A sub 950mb storm is possible to make landfall if the models are right. To get Sandy to the Mid Atlantic/ NE she has some work to do. Right now she is off to the east of FL and just to the north of the Bahamas. Sandy is currently in a weaker steering environment and she is slowly moving to the north-northeast. Sandy will begin to respond to a trough over the eastern US. This trough is strong and has lots of energy with it. The tilt and timing of this trough will have a big impact on the final destination. If the trough comes in later and is tilted more positive Sandy would be taken more out to sea. This is an unlikely scenario and basically no models forecast this. With a stronger and more negative tilted trough Sandy would go NE and then turn to the NW. Sandy would phase into the trough and move along with the flow, to the NW. Models support this situation and this is the likely track. Sandy should mostly avoid the SE and hit southern New England. While models aren't perfect people in Sandy's path need to be preparing for potential major impacts.
I am forecasting Sand to weaken to a tropical storm today. She will bottom out with 65-70mph winds before conditions improve. I think Sandy will be able to restrengthen into a hurricane over the gulf stream. A secondary peak of 80mph is likely in about 3 days. Sand should make landfall with 70-75mph winds. Her winds would slowly decrease as she heads inland. I think Sandy will turn to the NE today and slowly begin to speed up. Sandy should then continue to the NE until reaching 34-37N and then turn to the NW. I have Sandy making landfall in central NJ in several days. Sandy should then get turned to the north and exit into Canada. This is a pretty high confidence forecast due to model support.
Tropical storm and hurricane warnings are still in affect in the Bahamas and Florida. These areas have been getting squally weather and high waves. These conditions are expected to continue for about another day. There has been some damage in some areas but they are lucky it isn't as strong as before. Sandy has already claimed at least 41 lives in the Caribbean and this number is expected to rise. As Sandy heads NE North Carolina and South Carolina should get some impacts. Off shore measurements say TS force winds aren't too far from the coast and the should be able to move inland as Sandy gets closer. She will also bring rain and rough surf to these areas and a tropical storm warning is in effect. Once Sandy gets to the Mid Atlantic and NE her impacts are really felt. It is here where Sandy will be remembered and when she could become a historic storm. High winds, heavy rain, flooding, and waves/surge will be felt. Storm surge will be pushed into New York and surrounding areas. Such a large wind field will generate a bigger storm surge, this was shown earlier by Hurricane Isaac. Rain in excess of 10 inches is possible in many areas. Flooding will be likely in areas that usually get flooded. The rain will combine with some leaves on the trees to weaken the trees. Strong winds will have an easier time to uproot trees in the NE. Power lines will be taken out, small objects will be blown around, and some minor structural damage is possible. Tropical storm watches and warnings will be required over the next couple days. Not just the coastal areas will receive impacts from Sandy. Inland areas could get some rain, wind, and even snow. Higher elevations could get a couple feet of snow while other areas a couple inches. Millions upon millions of people will be affected by Sandy over the next week. You need to take this very seriously and listen to officials. This is no hype, Sandy could be a historic hurricane/nor'easter. If you are not prepared you could potentially die. As long as you are ready and listen to officials/warnings you should be fine. Once again, please stay safe if you are in Sandy's path.
Have a great night/morning everyone and I will have a new update today or tomorrow.
Updated: 6:49 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
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Sandy weakens some but still a major treat to the NE
Sandy has had a rough day today. Shear has been impacting her from multiple sides and the speed of the shear has increased. Wind shear has finally been able to begin to take down Hurricane Sandy. Currently winds have dropped to 80mph, a pressure of 968mb, and she is moving NW at 13mph. Aircraft recon is investigating Sandy to find out what is going on and her current conditions.
What was once a beautiful hurricane has been overcome by high wind shear. UW-CIMSS wind shear map shows over 40 knots of wind shear impacting Sandy from the SSW. There analysis maps also showed that Sandy has remained vertically stacked and that there still is some good divergence and convergence. This shear has exposed some of the circulation and blew some convection off to the NE. We know that the circulation is still vigorous and it should survive the wind shear. Sandy should begin to slowly turn extra-tropical. Also not as warm SST and lower TCHP values are contributing to weakening and a transition. I think weakening should continue and restrengthening from tropical origins is not likely. The lack of convection right over the center isn't a good sign for her. It is possible she weakens to a tropical storm before baroclinincal energy intensifies her again. This would happen as Sandy interacts with a trough around North Carolina or so. It is possible, but not likely at all, that Sandy is sheared to death by this trough. While models don't show this happening we have to noted every possibility. I think she should slowly weaken for a couple more days as she takes apart her inner core but expands the storm in general. Once Sandy gets to the baroclinic zone she should rebound some before making landfall. Her wind field will be expanding from this, the pressure will fall, but the top wind speeds will fall too. Sandy will look more and more like an asymmetric hurricane than before due to shear and the extra-tropical transition. She will still bring damaging impacts no matter what she is officially classified as. The Bahamas are still under hurricane warnings as Sandy does continue to produce hurricane force winds. Parts of the East Coast are already under tropical storm watches/warnings. Schools in Fl are closed and more of the same can be expected in the north.
Models have been coming into a great agreement of most things about Sandy. They are all indicating that Sandy will continue to impact FL and the Bahamas for the next 24-36hrs as Sandy slowly moves NW before making a turn. This turn will be in response to a trough located over the United States. Models also agree that Sandy will go NE before phasing with the trough and turning back to the NW. They all show her strengthening some due to entering a baroclinic zone, and they all show here turning extra-tropical near landfall. It is once Sandy gets north of 35N models begin to lose a consensus. While they maintain a Mid Atlantic to NE landfall they don't know exactly where or how she will do over land. Some models take Sandy to MASS or Maine while others to lower NY and NJ. At least no major models take her out to sea like in the past. I say this is good because we have a idea that somewhere will get hit, but I wish Sandy was going out to sea though. The trough looks to come in on time and sweep Sandy away from Fl. It should carry her to the NE until about 35N when she starts to turn NE. Sandy will be losing tropical characteristics by that point and she wouldn't have much more than 24hrs, I think, as a fully tropical cyclone. I think a landfall in the middle of NJ is very reasonable at this point looking at our two most reliable models. Sandy could either go more t the north or to the west after coming ashore. A more northern track would put less people in harms way from snow. A more westerly track would have a more substantial snow system for some. Timing is key with the trough and everyone on the East Coast needs to be preparing for sandy.
Where ever Sandy makes landfall she will have long reaching impacts. With Sandy being a large storm, and only expected to get larger, her impacts will be felt over a big area. With her transitioning to an extra-tropical storm her wind field is expanding. Some areas in the Mid Atlantic and the NE can expect winds up to 75mph. Other areas will likely see 40-65mph winds. This will be able to knock out power, uproot/break trees, damage structures, and make life difficult. Rain will be a threat from Sandy as well. Once she gets into the baroclinic zone her convection will increase. This will have more rain than she has right now. Some areas are estimated to get 10+" of rain. This would cause flooding in a good amount of areas that don't need it. Snow is even a possibility with Sandy as there will be cold air on the back side. Depending on track, a snowstorm is possible in a couple states with lesser snowfall in others. That will have to be watched as no one would be prepared for an early winter storm. Finally storm surge and coastal flooding should be an issue. With Sandy coming at a time with a full moon a higher tide and surge are expected. This could drive water into areas that usually don't get surge. People in the NE and Mid Atlantic need to be preparing for Sandy and listening to officials. This could be a historic event and you do not want to get caught in the storm unprepared.
Have a great day everyone and I will have an update tonight or tomorrow.
Updated: 11:47 PM GMT on October 26, 2012
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Sandy rapidly intensifies; Tony weakening
Yesterday ,in the evening and night time, Hurricane Sandy rapidly strengthened between Jamaica and Cuba. She became a strong category 2 hurricane before making landfall in Cuba. While Sandy made landfall over mountainous terrain her core still looks intact. This is important for her future as she could do more strengthening and maintain her intensity longer than previously thought. Currently Sandy has 105mph winds, a 960mb pressure, and she is moving N at 18mph. A recon plane is currently en route to investigate Sandy.
Hurricane Sandy was under the right conditions for RI yesterday. She took advantage of these conditions and rapidly strengthened near and north of Jamaica. A recon plane found winds to support a high end cat2 and that is what the NHC went with. After that Sandy made landfall in southern Cuba. This is usually a problem for developed storms has their core is usually disturbed a lot and they usually have a hard time to recover. That combined with some shear would be the beginning of the end for most storms, not Sandy though. She was able to move fast enough over Cuba that her core was relatively left intact. She should be able to fend off shear for another 24hrs before shear begins to increase. I think Sandy should be able to at least gain back her intensity and even possibly become a major hurricane. Since waters are still warm and shear is moving in the same direction as Sandy she will still have a favorable environment. In a couple days is when shear increases to less favorable levels and SST will begin to cool. That is when Sandy will not be able to strengthen anymore and she will start a weakening trend. Waters should stay warm enough for Sandy to remain tropical for a good amount of her future over water. Models and the NHC say she should remain tropical up until she gets near 35N. I think she may be able to last a little longer tropical before finally being over come by baroclinical energy and wind shear. It could still be a bad situation no matter what and people in the NE and Canada need to be taking Sandy seriously.
Hurricane conditions are ongoing in Cuba and parts of the Bahamas. Sustained winds of cat2 strength and gusts of cat3 can be expected in some areas. Hurricane warnings are up in Cuba and the Bahamas for Sandy. Tropical storm conditions are being felt in Fl, Cuba, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas and TS warnings are in affect. These conditions will continue in the Bahamas and the US for a couple more days as Sandy moves north. Sandy is moving right into the breaking down ridge. This is keeping her motion at a steady pace to the north. Models are pretty consistent of a N to then NNW movement over the next couple days. After that the forecast becomes pretty difficult with model uncertainty. The ECMWF(most reliable model historically) takes Sandy to the NJ area with a pressure around 950mb. The GFS(another very reliable model) takes Sandy to Maine or Canada, while the GFS ensemble members take Sandy farther south mostly. The trough is expected to pick up Sandy in a couple days and move her to the NE away from the US. Sandy should then phase with the trough and come back to the NW. Where this happens and how strong Sandy will be is what models disagree on. Right now I am in line with the ECMWF solution after looking a steering maps and other forecast tools. The NE/Canada could get heavy rain/wind and inland areas could get some snow. Coastal flooding and storm surge would be pretty big with Sandy. Lots of power outages and damage could be done with Sandy coming into the NE. It might not be a happy Halloween for many if Sandy has her way, please take her seriously.
Have a great day everyone and I will have another update tonight or tomorrow morning.
Tropical Storm Sandy
TS Sandy has took advantage of her surroundings and she is intensifying nicely. A CDO has formed over the center and an eyewall is forming. The convection surrounding Sandy has been deepening and her overall structure has improved too. Sandy has about 36-48hrs left before making landfall in Cuba and ending the strengthening trend for a little while. A recon plane is headed into Sandy to investigate her and determine if she is still a TS or a hurricane. Currently Sandy has 70mph winds, a 986mb pressure, and she is moving N at 14mph. Interests in the northern Caribbean islands need to have taken action for Sandy.
Sandy is in the middle of a strengthening phase in her life. She is in a lower shear, low trade winds, and high TCHP/SST value area. These factors are allowing Sandy to continue to strengthen. It is still possible that Sandy's intensification speeds up and she rapidly intensifies. This is an area where storms have strengthened rapidly in the past. One sure thing is Sandy has strengthened from yesterday. Her structure has improved greatly and a CDO has formed and expanded. Also Sandy has been developing an eye and building an eyewall. It looks like an eye wants to pop out on satellite images but we have to wait and see if this happens. This has been confirmed by earlier recon missions and microwave imagery. ADT and T #'s support an upgrade to hurricane status later this morning. If recon finds surface winds of hurricane force we will have an upgrade to hurricane status. All is not perfect though with the environment around Sandy as some shear is impacting Sandy. This does not look to be hindering Sandy too much though, but it will increase toward the end of the forecast period. As Sandy moves north she will be interacting with land which should disrupt her circulation and core some. I think once Sandy gets back over water she should have some recovery. Shear will be on the rise though and TCHP values won't be as high. Also baroclinical energy should begin to infiltrate Sandy in several days. This will begin to turn Sandy extra-tropical as she heads NE. This will expand her wind field and decrease her max wind speeds. It is the timing of the trough that will determine how strong she is north of the Caribbean. That trough will also impact if she goes out to sea or hits the US/Canada. Some models show her hitting the NE and having dangerous impacts, more on that later.
Sandy is beginning to move faster off to the north. Southerly flow is pushing her a little faster to the north than earlier. This will continue for a few days until the trough causing this flow reaches Sandy. It is pretty easy to say where Sandy will go in the short term time frame. Models and the environment both say Sandy should continue north for a couple days. There is a high confidence in this and this should keep Sandy away from hitting Fl. Once Sandy starts to get farther north confidence drops in the track. That trough is key to where Sandy goes. The timing, strength, and tilt of the trough will be the deciding factor for track. If the timing is right and the trough a certain strength it could actually pull Sandy into the US/Canada. Also it could be tilted in a way where Sandy is sent out to sea as a powerful extra-tropical storm. The ECMWF, CMC, NOGAPS etc... have Sandy come very close or hit the NE US with big impacts. There would be rain, wind, and snow for millions of people. The GFS however takes Sandy out to sea not affecting the US in a big way. Even stranger, the GFS ensembles take Sandy NE and the curve it back into the US. It is hard to decide where to send Sandy right now. I am forecasting her to go NE but I am closer to the US than before. Models have been shifting slowly closer to the US/Canada with time and a hit is more likely than ever. People in the US and Canada need to monitor the progress of Sandy and the models for more of a consensus.
Have a great day everyone and I will have an update tomorrow with Tony.
Sandy forms and strengths, TD19 likely to become Tony
Yesterday a vigorous tropical wave(invest 99L) formed into a tropical storm. Later in the day it strengthened to the 19th named storm, tropical storm Sandy. Sandy was and is under a good environment for development and strengthening. She has improved her satellite appearance dramatically over the past 24-36hrs. Currently Sandy has 45mph winds, a 998mb pressure, and she is stationary. Sandy has only continued to get organized and she could become a hurricane in a day or so before impacting Jamaica and Cuba.
Right now Sandy is having the time of her life. She has little worries about any problems right now in the Caribbean. Sandy is over high TCHP and SST values and has lower wind shear impacting her than storms before her. There is a very high chance that Sandy continues to intensify in the Caribbean and it is possible that Sandy undergoes rapid intensification. The SHIPS model indicates that there is a good chance of Sandy doing RI while in the Caribbean. I believe if she gets a strong core that she will rapidly intensify. Sandy is currently building a core and a CDO over the center. As she organizes herself she is over great conditions. This is an area known for rapid intensification and Sandy looks to be another example. Right now I forecast Sandy to become a 90mph hurricane before impacting Cuba. I feel this is not overdone as models indicate she could become a hurricane before leaving the Caribbean. Sandy will continue to be slow moving for another 24hrs, right over the high TCHP values. Once she makes it to Cuba some shear will be impacting her plus land interaction will weaken Sandy. People in Jamaica, Cuba, Hispaniola, and the Cayman Islands need to be taking action for Sandy's arrival.
As I said earlier Sandy should weaken due to land interaction and some shear. The mountains should disrupt Sandy's circulation and disorganize the storm a little. I feel that she should weaken back down to a strong tropical storm from all of this. Once she is back over water conditions should be favorable for some strengthening. I predict Sandy should be able to regain hurricane strength. I am thinking Sandy should get pulled to the N by a weakness to the north. An advancing trough could either send her out to sea or even take her inland. It all depends on the timing and the tilt of the trough. Right now I play a safe NNE tack but it is not in super high confidence. There is model support for this solution but there are other solutions too. The GFS continues to take Sandy out to sea and not making it to the east coast. Some other models have Sandy getting very close/landfall in the NE or Mid Atlantic. It is the timing of everything that will determine whether Sandy goes over open water or into the US. Another thing the models show is Sandy becoming subtropical near the end of the forecast period. For now I have not went with Sandy turning subtropical but it is a possibility. Everyone in the Mid Atlantic north needs to watch the progress of Sandy so they are ready for anything.
Yesterday another tropical depression formed in the Atlantic. It has a good satellite presentation with banding noted and a good circulation. Satellite estimates show TD19 could be a tropical storm and it is likely we have TS Tony before the day is done. TD19 should be in a semi-favorable environment for a couple days. This leads me to believe that it should strengthen into a TS and a little more. After that cooler SST values and higher wind shear should begin to weaken TD19 and turn it extra-tropical. TD19 could be a threat to the Azores and they should watch it just in case it tries to do something.
Have a great day everyone and I will have a new update tomorrow.
Berkley, Michigan weekly forecast 10/22/12-10/28/12
A warm several days is in store for the Berkley area. A warm front will be lifting through providing warm temps combined with a ridge. This weather system will provide periods of rain and storms until the cold front passes. Those storms won't be severe as there won't be enough instability and shear. A drier and cooler period will be in store after that. There are chances for rain and snow showers late in the forecast period and beyond. The GFS and ECMWF models have been even showing several inches of snow for the area in 7-8 days. Right now it is too far out and inconsistent to put much stock into it but it needs to be watched. It is a fall pattern setting up for the Berkley area.
Monday: Showers in late afternoon evening with skies clouding up earlier. Chance of rain 30% and chance of snow 0%. The high will be near 71F. Winds should be 5-10mph with gusts up to 15mph.
Monday night: Skies will be cloudy throughout the night. Rain showers will increase as the night progresses. Winds will be steady at 5-15mph. The temperature will be around 58F. Chance of rain 50% and chance of snow 0%.
Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms will be likely. High should be around 69F with winds near 5-10mph. Chance of rain 60% and chance of snow 0%.
Tuesday night: Showers becoming more scattered as the night progresses. The low should be around 59F and winds are calm. Chance of rain 40% and chance of snow 0%.
Wednesday: Warming trend continues and drying out. High will be around 74F with 5-10mph winds. Chance of rain 15% and chance of snow 0%.
Wednesday night: A clear and mild night. A low of 54F can be expected. Winds near 5-15mph with higher gusts possible. Chance of rain 5% and chance of snow 0%.
Thursday: Sunny conditions will continue throughout the day. A high near 75F is likely. Winds 10-20mph are possible with higher gusts. Chance of rain 5% and chance of snow 0%.
Thursday night: A chance of rain showers can be expected later in the night with mostly cloudy conditions. A low near 56F. Chance of rain 25% and chance of snow 0%.
Friday: The chance of showers continue and temps cool off. A high near 57F. Chance of Rain 40% and chance of snow 0%
Friday night: Rain slowly moving out of the area. Low should be 43F. Chance of rain 30% and chance of snow 0%
Saturday: Last day of rain showers. High of 50F. Chance of rain 25% and chance of snow 0%.
Saturday night: Clearing skies late at night with some rain and snow showers. Low near 36F. Chance of rain 25% and chance of snow 25%. No snow accumulations expected.
Sunday: End of the forecast period dries out but much cooler. Partly cloudy skies. High near 47F. Chance of rain 5% and chance of snow 5%.
Have a great night and morning everyone and I will have a tropical update today or tomorrow.
Updated: 4:27 AM GMT on October 22, 2012
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This blog is designed to show my format and what I do. I am currently in high school right now and I am pursuing a study in meteorology. I got the opportunity to do an independent study on meteorology this school year. I make local forecasts for my area and forecast/monitor the tropics, winter weather, and severe weather. While they are not associated with any official forecast center I try to make them as accurate and high quality as possible. I am always open to comments, questions, or critics on all my blogs. I want to be a better forecaster so any feedback I get from fellow bloggers is appreciated. I write a local forecast blog every Sunday evening. I make my written and graphical forecast here. At the end of every month I will write a summary of how my forecasts did compared to the forecasts of the NWS.
Here are some links that I use to make my forecasts for these types of blogs.
Models = Link and Link
Websites = Link, Link, and Link
The other type of main blogging I do is on the tropics right now. Once winter comes and severe weather season I will update this blog accordingly. I usually start out with a summary of the storm and the current stats. I then show a satellite image of the storm or invest that I'm blogging about. I then go into detail about the environment around the storm and the structure of the storm. Finally I do my forecast and remarks on the storm. I make my written and graphical forecast here so you can see what I am saying in multiple ways. I try to always be accurate and concise on my blogging and I try to get the message out.
Models = Link and Link
Satellites = Link, Link, Link, Link, Link, and Link
Hurricane centers = Link, Link, Link, and Link
Other cites = Link, Link, Link, Link, Link, Link, Link, and Link
I did this so you know what my blogs are about and the reason why I do them. Have a great night and I will have my Berkley, MI blog out soon.
99L a threat to the Caribbean and 90L could develop
The tropical wave near South America has been increasing in organization today. It has went from 20% to 60% today in the NHC tropical weather outlook. I give 99L an 80% chance of developing in the next 48hrs due to trends in organization. 99L's circulation and structure has improved greatly today and convection was flourishing earlier today. I'll explain why it has diminished and how it is already trying to come back later. The latest ATCF update had 99L with 25kt winds and a 1006mb pressure. The pressure continues to fall from earlier today as shown in surface observations. Invest 99L has a high chance to develop over the next day and aircraft recon will be investigating 99L later today.
There is so much that needs to be, and can be, said about 99L. So I'll first mention on what I'll be talking about. First I will do an analysis of 99L and its environment, then I will go over the models and their forecast, finally I will talk about my forecast and the threat areas. I know this will be a rather lengthy discussion but 99L could be a real threat to some areas.
Analysis of 99L
Right now looks are deceiving with invest 99L, but in a different way than you would think. Earlier in the year we would have storms look good in the E & C Caribbean but actually be disorganized. Right now the opposite is true, 99L doesn't look organized to a non-meteorologist stand point but in fact it is pretty organized. Convection is lacking right now but that is not a problem and to be expected. DMIN is affecting invest 99L with really limiting convection around the center. Some popcorn convection is already popping up in and around 99L signaling a comeback. Earlier today there was a good amount of thunderstorms around the center. When we get later into the morning you will see convection sprout all round 99L. This is due to DMAX affecting 99L and that is expected too. These daily cycles are a part of a developing depressions life and as 99L gets stronger it won't depend on DMAX for it's convection. Most likely tomorrow 99L should gain enough organization so DMIN doesn't cause the convection to fade a lot. The structure and circulation of invest 99L is actually really good. Satellite reveals a good cloud pattern and a surface circulation. This surface circulation could be closed, a trait of life for a tropical cyclone, but we won't know until an ASCAT pass or recon confirms this. All the invest needs to be declared a tropical depression is persistent convection.
The environment around invest 99L is conducive for development. An anticyclone is trying to build over 99L as we speak. This will fight off some shear that is currently impacting the invest. Coincidentally the shear is being caused by the anticyclone trying to cover 99L. The CIMSS wind shear map shows the anticyclone is still just to the south of 99L. This should change today as it slowly slides on to 99L and then wind shear would relax to more favorable levels. Storms earlier this year have struggled in this part of the Caribbean, but not 99L. That is because 99L is not moving as fast and the trade winds are slower than earlier. This is allowing the LLC to keep up with the convection. Another factor for 99L is the high TCHP and SST values in the Caribbean. They will allow 99L to get as much energy as it wants. It will be getting in an area where tropical cyclones of the past have bombed out. I don't think 99L will bomb out as it won't have as good of an environment as those storms. In fact I don't think we will see much more than a category 1 hurricane due to wind shear. If wind shear wasn't going to be present then we could be dealing with a dangerous situation. Also vertical instability is below average in the Caribbean. This won't be too much of a factor as other storms in the past have done fine with the amount of instability present. The environment will be conducive for some strengthening in the open Atlantic too. Once 99L gets there it could strengthen again after getting impacted by land. I still don't think it will be good enough for significant strengthening but some intensifying is definitely possible. Invest 99L would then eventually get absorbed by a trough and turn cold-core. All in all 99L should have a decent environment for strengthening but it shouldn't bomb out and become a major hurricane.
Models on 99L
The models have had a relatively decent handle on 99L so far. They at least have been doing better than some complex storms from earlier in the year. Nevertheless, there are disagreements on track and intensity. Some models have been flip-flopping where they take 99L and how strong it gets. Others have been consistent of where it takes 99L and how strong. The timing of a trough That is forecasted to come out of the Great Lakes is key. If it comes too early or too late it would affect how close it comes to the US. You can find all the model runs talked about in this blog here. The CMC has been consistent with sending 99L to the SW Caribbean before looping it back to the NNW and then toward FL. The intensity has been pretty consistent from a strong TS to a cat2 range. It then sends it up the east coast as a strong nor'easter. While there isn't much more model support for this it should be noted the most recent GFS run had something similar to this. Speaking of the GFS, it has been forecasting 99L to develop for over a week now. Lately it loops it in the Caribbean before taking it NNE toward Hispaniola and then further NE. It has had it up to a strong TS and a weak TS with multiple competing lows. It is a little hard to buy the multiple lows but the track isn't too bad. You have to remember it has been a stellar model this year and it does deserve credit. The other high preforming model, the ECMWF, has been forecasting a storm for several days. It is pretty similar to the GFS in track and and develops 99L into a TS. However, it has had a few runs were it has trended stronger and closer to the US. The NOGAPS model and the UKMET both develop 99L into a TD/TS. They don't run too far out to know exactly how strong or where they take 99L. The hurricane models are now running on 99L since it is an invest. While they overdo the intensity with 99L I do like their track. They take the invest in a loop and northward near Jamaica and Cuba. They then continue northward and slowly strengthen 99L over the open Atlantic. I am somewhere in the middle of these models and the GFS and have a track near Cuba and Hispaniola. We need to watch the models for a wide spread consensus on track and intensity which will happen in the coming days.
My forecast on 99L
My forecast on 99L hinges on the forecasted trough that will impact the Great Lakes. I don't think 99L will hit the USA as a tropical storm or hurricane. While there is some model support I am waiting for more support/consistency before moving toward the US. Invest 99L should continue to move west over the next few days before curving to the NNE. I think we should be dealing with a strong TS to a cat1 hurricane in the northern Caribbean to the open Atlantic before weakening. As noted already shear should prevent 99L from bombing out in the Caribbean like the HWRF and GDFL say. After the Caribbean 99L should continue through the open Atlantic without impacting much land. Of course if a consensus shifts toward the US this could change.
I have introduced a threat area category to go along with my rating category. The threat level shows the risk of getting impacts from a TS or hurricane. I have put a low impact risk in parts of Central America. I have done this because of some ensemble models and non-global models bringing 99L close to CA so to cover every aspect I did this. Parts of the Bahamas and Cuba have a low risk due to showers, uncertainty, and waves from 99L. The Cayman Islands and parts of Hispaniola, Cuba, and the Bahamas have a medium risk. These areas could get heavy rain, some wind and sea action from 99L, plus there is still uncertainty with track. A portion of Cuba, most of Hispaniola, and all of Jamaica are under a high risk. There is pretty high confidence that they will receive heavy rain, wind and waves from 99L. Everyone in invest 99L's path needs to be ready for tropical storm/hurricane impacts and they need to monitor the latest conditions.
An upper level low combined with a surface low is currently over the open Atlantic. This AOI has been slowly organizing throughout the day and has been tagged invest 90L. the NHC gives 90L a 30% chance to develop while I give it a 40% chance in the next 48hrs. The latest ATCF update has 90L at 30kt winds and a 1012mb pressure. Right now it is trying to fire up more convection since it is limited. Upper level winds aren't favorable for tropical development right now but that should change. Shear is expected to decrease from a high range to a low/medium range. Combined with decent SST 90L could develop into a tropical or subtropical storm. 90L has a subtropical look to it due to that upper level low interacting with it. The two lows should build some distance from each other which could also allow for tropical development. I think 90L could develop into either Sandy or Tony depending on when 99L becomes a named storm. 90L would likely remain a TS as shear would increase to high levels in a few days. 90L will likely be picked up by a cold front and remain out to sea. It is still interesting to track if it becomes a named storm as it could put us in 2nd place for named storms. Also you never know what it could do as Michael and Kirk have rapidly intensified in this general area. We will have to watch it and see what happens no matter what.
Have a great day everyone and I will have my local forecast up tonight and a tropical update tomorrow.
Special Update: Paul and Rafael quickly strengthening
Hurricane Rafael has been steadily organizing throughout the day today. He has maintained and improved his CDO while trying to even get an eye going. For a the morning and early afternoon Rafael was kept a TS even though there was evidence to support an upgrade. However, at 6:45mph EDT the NHC decided Rafael had reached hurricane status. At the 8pm intermediate advisory his winds were bumped up higher. Currently Rafael has 85mph winds, a 974mb pressure, and he is moving N at 10mph. With Rafael becoming a hurricane that puts the season total to nine and only the second hurricane to form below 25N.
Rafael is finally a hurricane, something satellite estimates have shown for part of the day. Aircraft reconnaissance has found flight level winds up to around 110-115mph and surface winds near 85mph. This combined with ADT estimates warrants the upgrade to an 85mph hurricane. Rafael has improved more on satellite imagery since this morning. His CDO has deepened and expanded and a ragged eyewall has tried to develop. If an eyewall develops and an eye pops out Rafael could rapidly strengthen into a powerful hurricane, just like Ophelia. No matter what Rafael continues to organize despite some wind shear still affecting his low and mid level circulation. If the was no shear we could be talking about a major hurricane or a close to major hurricane right now. I think Rafael should be able to continue to strengthen for about 24 more hours before weakening. My peak is a 100mph cat2 hurricane based on past trends and the future environment. After a day or so wind shear will increase and SST's will decrease prompting Rafael to weaken and turn extra-tropical. He could give Bermuda tropical storm conditions and a tropical storm warning is in affect.
Rafael's track is easier to forecast than some storms earlier in the year. There is model consistency and an easier to see/analyze environment. It should take Rafael a little longer to turn extra-tropical now that he is stronger. This shouldn't affect his forecast track too much though. Currently a ridge resides to Rafael's north and this is affecting his track. Right now he is making a turn to the north due to the weakness. That trough in the eastern US is creating the weakness in the ridge and Rafael is going toward that weakness. That trough should then pick up Rafael and take him off to the NE away from land. Most models favor a solution similar to this and so does the NHC. There is some timing issues in exactly where/when Rafael goes but a general turn to the north and then northeast is expected. Bermuda is under a tropical storm warning due to a good consensus on at least TS conditions affecting Bermuda. People in Bermuda need to be making their preparations so they can be ready if something unexpected happens. Canada and the US shouldn't see any major impacts from Rafael.
Major Hurricane Paul
Major Hurricane Paul went through rapid intensification today. This was predicted by the SHIPS models and it turned out true. All signs pointed for rapid intensifying and Paul too advantage of those conditions. Currently Paul has 120mph winds, a 960mb pressure, and he is moving NNE at 14mph. Paul has went from a category 1 to a category 3 hurricane today. Paul went from no eye and a semi deep CDO to a full blown eye and eywall with deep convection. Right now his eye is a little more ragged than earlier.Microwave imagery still shows a decent eyewall but it is not as strong as earlier. The latest ATCF update weakens Paul to a 115mph cat3 hurricane. His satellite appearance definitely shows a weakening hurricane and Paul has likely peaked. Conditions will only continue to deteriorate as Paul heads toward the Baja of California. High shear and cold water temps will weaken Paul all the way down to a extra-tropical storm in a few days. He could hit the southern part of the peninsula as a strong TS to cat1 hurricane. He should then parallel the coast as he weakens. Hurricane and tropical storm warnings and watches are up for those area and people need to be ready for Paul.
The Caribbean will be prime for development over the next couple weeks. This happens almost every year around this time and this year is no exception. Climatology, a strong mjo pulse, high TCHP and SST values, and lower shear are great ingredients for a strong system to for. The GFS has been showing a hurricane forming in the Caribbean for days now. Strength has ranged from a cat1 to a cat3 and track is unpredictable. Lately the GFS storm has came near the US on Halloween, which would be a bad trick. What it has been showing is a lot of consistency and when the GFS is consistent a storm should usually form. The Euro has jumped on board with developing a system in the Caribbean. Both models also show, from time to time, another storm forming in the open Atlantic or near the Caribbean. We just need to always be ready and watch the model runs to see if they continue to develop another one to two storms. It will be an interesting next couple weeks, I can say that with confidence.
18z GFS at 384hrs:
12z Euro at 240hrs:
Have a great night/ Tuesday everyone and I should have a new blog out tomorrow or Wednesday.
Atlantic heating up, Paul a hurricane
TS Rafael formed on Friday night from a vigorous tropical wave. He skipped TD status as he already had tropical storm force winds. Conditions weren't perfect for a while which kept him lopsided to the right. Shear has since decreased and a uniform CDO has formed over the center. Currently Rafael has 70mph winds, a 988mb pressure, and is moving NNW at 10mph. Convection continues to organize over the center and his circulation is strengthening. Rafael doesn't need much more increases in organization and wind speed to become a hurricane.
While Rafael is not yet quite a hurricane, at least not officially, he continues to look better. Over the past day He began to look like a uniform tropical storm. He wasn't too lopsided or sheared or affected in other areas. With a CDO and some banding Rafael doesn't need much more to be upgraded to a hurricane. While ADT and satellite estimates kept him just below a hurricane, recon is investigating the storm and finding a little different measurements. They are finding peak flight level winds around 80kts which would equal to around 65kts at the surface, a hurricane. Rafael will very likely/should be a hurricane at 11am EDT today. The environment around Rafael continues to still support some strengthening. Yeah there is still some shear but Rafael can and is handling it nicely and I don't expect for there to be many problems. After 60-72hrs shear will increase and SST's will decrease which will weaken Rafael and turn him into an extra-tropical storm.
Rafael's track is easier to forecast than some storms earlier in the year. There is model consistency and an easier to see/analyze environment. Currently a ridge resides to Rafael's north and this is affecting his track. Right now he is getting pushed west while trying to go more to the north. However a trough in the eastern US is creating a weakness in the ridge and Rafael will go toward that weakness. That trough should then pick up Rafael and take him off to the NE away from land. Most models favor a solution similar to this and so does the NHC. There is some timing issues in exactly where/when Rafael goes but a general turn to the north and then northeast is expected. Bermuda is under a tropical storm watch due to a good consensus on at least TS conditions affecting Bermuda. Canada and the US shouldn't see any major impacts from Rafael.
The GFS continues to develop one to two systems near the Caribbean in the next two weeks. It has been showing this for several days now so consistency is there. When the GFS gets consistent with showing development you know there is a really good chance development will occur. The environment should be favorable for an intensifying cyclone. A strong mjo pulse, lower shear, and high TCHP and SST values all favor TS formation. We will have to watch the Caribbean and surrounding areas for Sandy and Tony over the next couple weeks.
A strong tropical wave developed into Paul a couple days ago. This storm has been gathering strength for all of his life. He is now up to 80mph winds and a 986mb pressure. A eye and eyewall is developing per microwave imagery and a CDO covers the center. The environment around Paul favors more strengthening today. After today conditions will deteriorate extremely and Paul should rapidly weaken down to a TD. Paul will travel north until the Baja before paralleling the coast. He could provide impacts to the southern part of the Baja of California. Other than Paul there is no tropical development expected in the next two days.
Have a great day everyone and here is a link to my Berkley, MI forecast blog, Link.
Berkley, Michigan weekly forecast 10/14/12-10/21/12
I am starting my own weekly forecast for my home town. This is another aspect of my independent study that I am doing this year. I will be making a weekly forecast on Sundays for my area. They will be based off of models and official forecasts, mostly on models. They will sound a little like an official forecast as that is what I want it to sound like. However, they are not an official NWS forecast. I will analyze that forecast the following weekend based off of the NWS forecast. This is separate from my tropical update blog and will not ever be included in it. I hope you enjoy this new topic I write about.
Monday: Showers in morning followed by cloudy skies in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30% and chance of snow 0%. The high will be near 50F. Winds should be 15-30mph with gusts up to 35mph. A cold front passing through will provide a cool windy day so have a jacket.
Monday night: Skies will be clearing from cloudy to partly cloudy. Winds will be decreasing from earlier down to 5-15mph. The temperature will be around 36F. Chance of rain 5% and chance of snow 0%.
Tuesday: Drying out with conditions calming down. High should be around 59F with winds near 5-10mph. Chance of rain 0% and chance of snow 0%.
Tuesday night: Skies clouding up as the night progresses. The low should be around 49F and winds around 10mph. Chance of rain 5% and chance of snow 0%.
Wednesday: Warming back up due to a ridge. High will be around 70F with 10-15mph winds. Chance of rain 15% and chance of snow 0%.
Wednesday night: Rain and clouds moving on in. A low of 55F can be expected. Winds near 10-20mph with higher gusts is possible. Chance of rain 30% and chance of snow 0%.
Thursday: Rainy conditions will continue throughout the day. A high near 59F is likely. Winds 10-25mph are possible with higher gusts. Chance of rain 50% and chance of snow 0%.
Thursday night: A chance of rain showers can be expected with cloudy conditions. A low near 46F. Chance of rain 45% and chance of snow 0%.
Friday: The chance of showers continue. A high near 56F. Chance of Rain 40% and chance of snow 0%
Friday night: Rain slowly moving out of the area. Low should be 43F. Chance of rain 25% and chance of snow 0%
Saturday: Last day of rain showers. High of 53F. Chance of rain 25% and chance of snow 0%.
Saturday night: Clearing skies late at night with a couple showers early. Low near 39F. Chance of rain 20% and chance of snow 0%.
Sunday: End of the forecast period dries out. Mostly clear skies. High near 56F. Chance of rain 5% and chance of snow 0%.
Have a great night and I will have my tropical update, with a link to this blog, out in the morning.
Full Tropical Atlantic Update 10/11/12
Invest 97L has went through a couple different stages in the past couple days. First it was looking steady but it was overcame by shear. However, yesterday shear relaxed again allowing 97L to quickly organize. 97L still has been showing signs of organization this morning with convection a little closer to the center. Currently 97L has 30kt winds and a 1009mb pressure per ATCF. The 30kt winds is backed up by a recent ASCAT pass showing an area of 30kt winds. That ASCAT pass also showed a well-defined surface low with 97L. While 97L is likely a TD, it shouldn't strengthen into anything significant. Also the NHC will be hesitant in classifying this even though advisories should be issued.
The environment over 97L is not the best and is only expected to get worse over the next couple days. 97L has been battling wind shear for much of it's life. Shear is still over 97L which is preventing significant organization. Shear may have the low and mid level circulation tilted a little, but is so it is not by much. Dry air is also a factor in keeping 97L from becoming something big. Due to it's small size any increase in shear or dry air would hurt 97L pretty badly. 97L can go either two ways, northeast or southwest. If 97L gets caught up in the front enough it will be pulled NE and it's development chances ended. If it drifts SW it will be going against moderate to high wind shear which would strip the invest of convection. Right now 97L is in a weak steering environment and will drift around today, possibly becoming a TD. Invest 97L shouldn't be much of a threat to any landmass.
Invest 98L has been steadily organizing over the past day. It is a vigorous wave with an embedded low pressure, that low is not very organized though. 98L has been consolidating and building convection despite the low altitude and strong shear. The latest ATCF update has 98L with 30kt winds and a 1007mb pressure. The NHC gave 98L a 50% chance of development and I agree with this. ASCAT has showed winds that were up to TS force but it didn't show a well-defined circulation. As more organization occurs 98L should be able to build it's own environment. I am thinking that we should see 98L become a named storm. Most models also agree with me in having 98L become a named storm. They take 98L into the northern Caribbean islands. Since 98L is still pretty far south I am unsure on how far north 98L gets. Shear has been slowly relaxing and is forecasted to relax even more. Combine lower shear with a moist environment and warm SST's a storm can quickly develop. No matter what 98L should bring squally weather to the Antilles over the weekend and early next week.
Have a great Thurday everyone and I will get a full tropical and severe weather update out tomorrow morning.
Updated: 3:13 AM GMT on October 12, 2012
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Full Tropical update for the Atlantic and Pacific; US weather update
Invest 97L is still holding on near the Bahamas. The invest is a pretty large system convection wise but it doesn't have a good circulation. 97L is not developed by any major models and I feel that development will likely not happen. Upper level winds have became unfavorable which has hinder development even more. The latest ATCF update had 97L with 20kt winds and a 1012mb pressure, on a weakening trend. Right now the NHC is giving this invest/AOI a 10% chance of development in the next 48hrs. I agree with this as there is still a small chance but it most likely won't develop. Invest 97L will continue to move away from the Bahamas at about 10mph as it weakens even more. The most the Bahamas and neighboring areas will see is some increased rainfall and gustier winds.
Invest 98L was tagged yesterday and has been slowly strengthening since then. Invest 98L has a decent cloud patter and decent convection already. This invest is the one to watch for major tropical development(into a TS/Hurricane). Currently 98L has 25kt(30mph) winds and a 1008mb pressure per the latest ATCF update. The latest NHC TWO gave 98L a 20% chance of development in the next 48hrs, I agree since development should be slower to occur. Right now invest 98L is moving WNW at 15mph, but it is located at a low altitude still. This presents two problems: not as much rotation and connected to the ITCZ. Being closer to the equator means 98L can't spin as much as it would father north. As 98L continues to head WNW and eventually NW this issue will be resolved and it shouldn't be a big factor in the long term for 98L. Also as 98L goes farther north it will break away from the ITCZ, which is feeding it energy/convection currently. Once 98L moves away from the ITCZ it will become it's own entity and able to strengthen into a tropical cyclone. 98L isn't totally stacked or has a tight circulation but that should be solved as it moves farther north as well. The invest's only problem should be upper level winds could be a factor near the Caribbean islands. It is too far out to really know how conditions will be for 98L that far out. This is the wave that models have been developing for a while now and most models develop it. 98L could become TS Patty and possibly even hurricane Patty if the GFS is correct. 98L bears to be watched as it could become a named storm and affect land.
Other possible development
Some development is possible in areas besides 97L and 98L. In a climatology stand point we should be looking in the Caribbean and close to the US for development. While conditions aren't the best in the world we could still see a storm try to develop off the end of a front. Such a storm could tap into warm Caribbean and gulf waters and strengthen into a good sized storm. People in those areas should still be prepared just in case a storm tries to wrap up quickly. Also the long range GFS shows Rafael forming late in the run. It would be after 98L exits the picture and it would form father north than 98L is located right now. Also since it is so far out such a storm could just not happen at all, but it is something to monitor.
Post-tropical storm Olivia
What was once a strong tropical storm has now weakened to a remnant low. Olivia has became another victim to wind shear and cooler waters. The remnants of Olivia won't likely develop nor should they affect land.
Typhoon Prapiroon has been strengthening over the past few days. Convection has been steadily building and his circulation has improved. Winds have now exceeded 65kts which warrants the upgrade to a typhoon. Right now winds are at 65kts(75mph) and he is moving WSW at 5mph. Prapiroon has the same environment that the major storms before it have had. While the typhoon isn't perfectly organized it could still become a major hurricane strength typhoon. Prapiroon looks to miss Japan but they could see some wave action. Luckily there is a good amount of time to watch the progress of Prapiroon.
A nice warm-up is in store for the US this week. A ridge is building in behind the trough which will allow temperatures to warm back above average. This will be a big difference from the widespread cold temperatures. With the warm-up however comes more fuel for thunderstorms. Add the warmer moister air with some wind shear and higher cape values and you got some severe weather. That is what should happen in the Midwest late in the week. Stay tuned for more information as we get closer to that time frame. Other than that some thunderstorms will be possible in Florida over the next couple days. Also a cold front will come through in the northern states providing some rain. The rest of the country should be relatively quiet.
Have a great Tuesday everyone and I will have a new update tomorrow.
Updated: 10:59 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
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Tropical Atlantic mostly quiet, for now; TS Olivia forms; WPAC active; US weather
After Hurricane Nadine and tropical storm Oscar died the Atlantic has quieted down. Oscar brought the named storm count to 15, another active year. Since then the Atlantic has relatively quiet. Conditions haven't been all that great for tropical development so we haven't seen much. However things will begin to change as we head into the middle of the month. The environment is somewhat conducive near Florida for the next couple days, right were an area of thunderstorms and showers are. This area has been tagged invest 97L and has been given a 10% chance to develop in the next 48 hours by the NHC. I give 97L a less than 5% chance of development due to the future environment and current structure. 97L has a low pressure but it is not vigorous and there isn't a lot of shower/thunderstorm activity over it. The environment over 97L is expected to deteriorate over the next couple days and 97L probably won't develop into anything noteworthy. The Bahamas and Florida will get some increased rain from 97L and 97L will slowly dissipate.
The GFS model has been showing tropical development for the past couple days. Development could occur as early as in a week. Development would occur in either the Caribbean sea, likely in the western to maybe eastern areas. Runs have varied from a TD/weak TS to a full fledged hurricane and any solution is possible. There will be high TCHP/ SST values and if shear can relax some a named storm can form. The ECMWF model has also has shown the possibility of a developing tropical storm. There is some model support and the MJO should be in the basin so a named storm is very possible. I believe we should be able to squeeze one or two more storms before the season ends. The next few weeks could get pretty interesting before conditions become too hostile.
18z GFS at 384hrs:
12z ECMWF at 240hrs:
Tropical storm Olivia formed yesterday from a quickly organizing tropical wave. The structure of Olivia has continued to improve but at a slower matter. Currently Olivia has 60mph winds, a 998mb pressure, and she is moving NNW at 6mph. The center is firmly under the Central Dense Overcast(CDO) and the center is pretty strongly rotating. However there may be some SW to NE shear impacting Olivia, backed up by the possible tilt of the low-level and mid-level circulation. There is some issues of clarity of the satellite images so it is not known how bad or good the core is. Decent outflow and convection suggest that Olivia could still do a little more strengthening. In the next day higher shear, drier air, and cooler water temperatures should begin to impact Olivia, thus inducing weakening. Olivia will reach a ridge of high pressure and be steered to the WSW in 24-36hrs while weakening. Over the next few days Olivia will turn extra-tropical over the open waters of the eastern Pacific and not affect any landmasses.
Gaemi and Prapiroon
The remnants of Gaemi are still impacting parts of Asia. Rain and some wind were produced when Gaemi made landfall in Vietnam and this is still the case. What is left of Gaemi could reach the Bay of Bengal. It is possible that redevelopment could happen but the circulation is pretty much fading away. I don't think much redevelopment will occur but it is something to watch.
Tropical Storm Prapiroon is really organizing as it churns the Western Pacific. Deep convection is over the center and this convection has became increasingly organized. Banding is clearly evident on satellite and microwave indicates early signs of a possible eyewall. Currently Prapiroon has 50mph(45kt)winds and is moving W at 5mph. Prapiroon has the ingredients to become a powerful typhoon, like others this year. Prapiroon may not become as strong as Jelawat or Sanba but a major hurricane strength typhoon is very possible. No matter what Prapiroon should recurve out to sea before hitting Japan, but we will know more info as we get closer to that time.
A cold few days followed by a warm-up is in store for the US. A freezing cold night is likely in parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes with freeze warnings/frost advisories issued. The growing season will likely becoming to a close soon with these freezing temperatures. Fall colors, on the other hand, are becoming more prominent with the cooler temps. A low pressure system will provide wetter/windier conditions in the eastern third of the nation over the next couple days. After that a ridge will build in providing a warm-up for much of the nation. Temperatures will return to normal to even above normal for many. The east should remain wetter while the west drier with this pattern continuing. Drought conditions will improve in the eastern half of the US while worsening in the western half. No severe weather is expected over the next week with just some garden variety storms in parts of the US. Models show some troughs coming into the northern US in the latter part of the runs after the warm-up. The 12z GFS even showed a snow system moving up the Central US, this is not likely at this time. As we head toward winter temperatures will continue to cool and weather will become more unsettled. All in all the weather shall be fair for a good part of the US over the next few days.
Have a great Monday and I will have a new update Tuesday morning.
Nadine is Nadone, TS Oscar forms, Season outlook
There is not much to write about Nadine besides she is almost Nadone. Nadine is somehow hanging on to enough tropical characteristics to be classified as a tropical storm. Nadine doesn't have a lot of 40-45mph per ASCAT and the there is not convection over the center. At the 5am advisory the NHC had Nadine with 45mph winds, 996mb pressure and she was moving NE at 23mph. They noted that Nadine was beginning to lose some tropical characteristics and Nadine will likely be post-tropical today. It is possible that Nadine ties Kyles record for 4th longest lived hurricane in the Atlantic. High wind shear, cool waters, and Nadine being absorbed by baroclinic energy will be the end for Nadine. Nadine should still bring tropical storm force winds to the Azores.
At 11pm EDT tropical storm Oscar formed despite not much convection over the center. That remains the case this morning with most of the thunderstorms on the west side of the storm. Oscar the grouch has finally broke the curse of this naming list becoming the first time Oscar has been used. At 5am Oscar had 40mph winds, a 1006mb pressure, and was moving NNW at 9mph. Some wind shear is impacting Oscar which is why there is no convection over the center. An anticyclone, which is not helping a tropical cyclone, and some ULL in the area are creating the shear affecting Oscar. Shear is only expected to increase over the next two days and SST's will decrease. These two factors tell me that Oscar is going to have a short life. While he may do a little strengthening Oscar won't get strong. The remnants of Oscar will go to possibly the Azores.
My forecast for Nadine and Oscar
As we are slowly ending the 2012 hurricane season I felt like saying how many more storms we will get, where, and when. First we have got the name Oscar the first time since that name was used. That bring us up to 15 named storms this season, another above-average year. It is possible to get another 1 maybe 2 storms, Oscar forming from 96L has made me change my numbers. For the past few years a late season hurricane has developed in the Caribbean and that could certainly happen this year. If we get a Caribbean hurricane it would probably be in the middle to late October time frame. There is also the possibility of getting a named storm from a front in the GOM or off the east coast. Everyone still needs to be ready for a storm and hope one doesn't form.
Have a great Thursday everyone and I will have another update tomorrow.
Nadine lives on, 96L to be a tropical depression soon, pattern change ahead
Tropical storm Nadine is holding on despite higher shear, dry air, and cooler SST's. Nadine is in the process of completing a full loop in her track. The satellite appearance looks to have improved a little since last night. At 5am EDT Nadine had 65mph winds, a 995mb pressure, and was moving ESE at 7mph. Nadine has lasted almost 21 days in the open Atlantic but she is expected to turn extra-tropical in a couple days.
Nadine is currently getting getting impacted by shear from the south and southeast. This shear has been strong enough to disrupt Nadine's circulation at times. The wind shear has also allowed some dry air to get into Nadine. This is confirmed by satellite showing limited convection and water vapor imagery. Nadine should begin to weaken due to these factors but Nadine has had other plans. Convection has been re-wrapping around the center and she has even developed an eye-like feature, see figure 1 for satellite. Microwave imagery shows that there is no eyewall around this feature but one may be trying to form. With Nadine's recent burst of life I will not weaken her as much as I would with the conditions she is in. Nadine probably only has 60-72 hours left before she transitions into an extra-tropical storm. Nadine may try to turn back toward the west or continue to go north but that will be taken care of later. The Azores will still receive some impacts from tropical storm Nadine no matter what state she is in.
Figure 1: Nadine wrapping convection back around the center.
The forecast track for Nadine has been becoming easier to make. After Nadine completes this loop models have a good handle on where she goes. They take her NE and then slowly curve her back to the west. This is possible but it is unlikely that Nadine would redevelop if she even made it. As a trough and low pressure come towards Nadine she will be accelerated to the NNE. How soon this happens and how strong the trough will be is still a little uncertain. Right now I am near the NHC track as that is where model consensus is. When Nadine gets accelerated to the NNE that should be the end of her. The long anticipated end of Nadine is almost here after about 3 long weeks with her. See figure 2 for the whole Atlantic tropical outlook.
Figure 2: Whole tropical outlook for the Atlantic.
A strong tropical wave that came off of Africa several days ago was tagged 96L by the NHC. What is unusual is that not many waves come off Africa at this time of year and that the environment is favorable. SST's are warm, shear is forecasted to be light to moderate, and the air should be moist. Conditions ahead will allow a tropical depression to for and intensify. Right now 96L has a decent satellite appearance showing the invest strengthening. The low pressure system with the wave is slowly intensifying as well showing a better defined low, see figure 3 for satellite view of 96L. 96L still has some work to do before it becomes a tropical depression however. The NHC in their 8am TWO gave 96L a 70% chance of development. Right now I say 96L has a high chance, 80%, of becoming a tropical depression in the next 48hrs. I think 96L should become a tropical depression sometime tomorrow or late tonight. 96L will be pulled to the north by the same weakness that Nadine is near. 96L isn't a short term threat to land but the Azores should watch the progress of 96L.
Figure 3: 96L continues to become better organized.
Pattern change ahead
Two things will be changing in and around the US. The first change is repeated cold shots from Canada will be impacting the US. The next two weeks look to be a big cool down for the eastern half to two thirds of the US. The CPC put most of the country in below average temperatures with the Midwest being in the heart of the cold. Models are indicating that this is only the beginning and more troughs with cold air are to come. The latest one month outlook has the eastern half locked in below average temperatures with above and below amounts of precipitation. Winter could also be a cold and snowier one than last winter for many. We will have to continue to watch models to see what they show.
Figure 4: Big temperature changes coming for many.
The second pattern change is we have to look towards closer to the US for tropical development. After invest 96L the Cape Verde season will likely be shut down. Any possible storm should form from cold fronts or energy near the US. These storms can be deadly as the can spin up fast, take people by surprise, and become strong. While models don't show a storm forming in this area right now it is possible for a storm to form in a little while. Conditions are not that favorable but they may improve and it is that time of year.
Figure 5: This chart shows the most likely areas of development climatology speaking.
Have a great day everyone and I will have a new update tomorrow.
Updated: 8:38 PM GMT on October 02, 2012
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Longest lived Atlantic TS's/hurricanes
Hurricane Nadine (2012)
Hurricane Nadine has lived a long life in the Atlantic Ocean. Nadine has lived for a long 18 days so far and is forecasted to be tropical for another 4 days. That means Nadine will have lived 22-23 days depending on when she does go extra-tropical. Nadine has done just about everything a hurricane can do, except for becoming a major hurricane. She has became a category 1 hurricane three different times, weakened, strengthened, became a subtropical and extra-tropical storm, and she has done the unexpected numerous times. The environment and steering around Nadine has had the set-up just right for her to live this long. Not many storms have lived this long and is closing in on the top 4 longest lived hurricanes in the Atlantic. These top 4 are the hurricanes I am going to write about. Figure 1 shows Nadine's past track.
Figure 1: long past track of Nadine.
4th longest lived hurricane: Hurricane Kyle (2002)
Hurricane Kyle is the 4th longest Atlantic hurricane on record, 22 days. Nadine has a good chance of beating or tying Kyle's record of 22 days. Kyle formed on September 20th, 2002 and dissipated on October 12th, 2002. Hurricane Kyle was able to reach a peak intensity of 85mph and 980mb, a category 1 hurricane. Kyle formed from a cold front/trough interaction area near Bermuda. Kyle at first was a subtropical storm but warm waters and favorable conditions allowed him to transition to a tropical storm a few days later. Kyle made a turn to the west after becoming tropical and then meandered aimlessly toward the United States over the next couple weeks. Kyle was able to become a hurricane before the environment became unfavorable to support a stable hurricane. Kyle would then fluctuate between a strong tropical storm and a tropical depression for much of the rest of his life. Bermuda received small impacts while the east coast got heavy rain and some wind. After Kyle made landfall the 2nd time in the US he was absorbed by a cold front and dissipated. Steering was weak which allowed Kyle to drift toward the US. Luckily since he was slow moving he upwelled ocean water which combined with unfavorable wind shear at times helped keep Kyle at a lower intensity. Kyle is remembered for his records of time alive and how many separate times he became a tropical storm. See figure 2 for the track of Hurricane Kyle.
Figure 2: Shows how Kyle fluctuated strength on his way to the US.
3rd longest lived hurricane: Hurricane Inga (1969)
Hurricane Inga currently holds the 3rd longest lived hurricane record at 25 days. Nadine will most likely not reach this record lengthen of time as she will turn extra-tropical too soon. Hurricane Inga formed on September 20th, 1969 and dissipated on October 15th, 1969. Hurricane Inga peaked at 115mph and 964mb, a category 3 hurricane. Like the other hurricanes Inga was a slow mover and most likely had dealt with some upwelling issues. Eventually Inga began to lose strength as conditions deteriorated. Inga's circulation became elongated and not as strong and convection decreased. Inga died over open waters without affecting land too much. See figure 3 for the track of Inga.
Figure 3: Inga's track showing she didn't affect land much.
2nd longest lived hurricane: Hurricane Ginger (1971)
Hurricane Ginger lasted the 2nd longest in the Atlantic basin, first until 2004 when a re-evaluation on the 1899 hurricane showed it lasted longer. As Nadine begins to weaken I can say with 100% certainty that Nadine will not break this record. Ginger formed on September 6th, 1971 and dissipated on October 3rd, 1971. Ginger was able to get her wind speeds as high as 110mph and her pressure down to 959mb. Ginger didn't form from a tropical wave and slowly develop as Ginger was spawned by a cold core ULL. Ginger formed, moved, and died in the general area Hurricane Kyle would in 2002. Ginger however persisted longer and was a category 1 hurricane for a record amount of time. Ginger double crossed herself once and even completed a full loop. The environment she was in was favorable enough to allow her to remain a hurricane over water for that whole time. Ginger would eventually make landfall in North Carolina with 75mph winds. North Carolina received a good amount of damage but luckily Ginger weakened quickly after landfall. It wouldn't have been fun waiting to see whether you would have to leave or stay or if the hurricane would even come close to you. It is a good thing Nadine isn't a threat to the US as no one would truly know where she would go and how strong. Look at figure 4 for the track of Ginger.
Figure 4: Past track of Ginger and her ability to remain a cat1 for a record amount of time.
Longest lived Atlantic hurricane: 1899 San Ciriaco Hurricane
The San Ciriaco Hurricane was not like the other 4 mentioned above. This long lived hurricane was a typical Cape Verde hurricane and it didn't have as crazy bends and curves in it's track. Also the San Ciriaco Hurricane became a powerful category 4 hurricane with 150mph winds and a 930mb pressure. The hurricane went right over the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Norther Hispaniola, the Bahamas, the United States, and the Azores. The San Ciriaco Hurricane caused millions of dollars in damage and thousands of fatalities. The hurricane probably formed from a tropical wave and slowly moved west-northwest while strengthening. It continues in this direction until coming toward Miami where it then mirrored the US coast until making landfall in North Carolina. After that it moved away from the US and weakened to a TS and the an extra-tropical storm. Instead of being finished, the San Ciricao Hurricane regenerated and even became a hurricane again before impacting the Azores. While no one can remember it first hand now this hurricane is still a very famous hurricane. See figure 5 for the longest tracked hurricane in recorded history in the Atlantic.
Figure 5: San Ciriaco Hurricane devastating the Caribbean Islands and the US.
Have a great Monday everyone and thanks for reading this special blog I did. I will have my usual tropical update late in the afternoon today, tonight or tomorrow morning.
Updated: 12:03 PM GMT on October 01, 2012
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