Nadine a hurricane, Jelawat weakens, Updated hurrricane scale.
Hurricane Nadine
Tropical storm Nadine regained hurricane status at 11am EDT today. Nadine has built an eyewall since yesterday morning. Convection has persisted and even deepened some more, and an eye is becoming evident. A recent ASCAT pass shows Nadine still has a well defined circulation. Currently Nadine has 75mph winds, a 988mb pressure, and she is moving NNW at 14mph.
The structure of Nadine actually represents a minimal hurricane, a first in a while for Nadine. Microwave imagery is showing an eyewall has developed around the center of Nadine. Outflow is present on all sides and is looking great. All signs point to a slowly strengthening hurricane. Nadine will be in a somewhat favorable environment for the next day or two before conditions get worse. I think Nadine has a good chance of strengthening further and becoming a 80mph hurricane before weakening. Some models say some more strengthening could occur and with how she is looking my idea is not a bad one. After today wind shear begins to increase over Nadine which should weaken her back to a tropical storm. Cooler waters will begin to affect Nadine as she heads toward the Azores. No matter how strong Nadine is she should again bring rain and wind to the Azores.
Models have been losing agreement with Nadine's track again. I am cautious on where to take Nadine right now because of model uncertainty. I call for Nadine to make a turn to the N and then meander the ocean for 3-5 days. I think Nadine could make a run for the Azores but I could simply get turned west or to the south. After 5 days there is too much unpredictability to even make a forecast, and the 5 day forecast is low confidence knowing Nadine's past. Nadine should continue to live her days in the Atlantic with her death date unknown.
Norman forms and dies
Tropical storm Norman formed yesterday near the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. Norman had persistent convection, 40mph winds, a closed circulation, and had no association to a front so he was able to be classified even though he looked not good. Norman was able to strengthen a little, 45mph winds, before weakening. Norman is now, barely, a TD and is probably going to be a remnant low at the next advisory. Norman will provide some rain for Mexico and the southern US.
Jelawat weakening
Typhoon Jelawat was one of the strongest and most beautiful tropical cyclones in all of 2012. He got all the way up to a 160mph cat5 super typhoon. He had a solid eyewall and even a pinwheel eye at one time. Luckily typhoon Jelawat weakened on its approach to Okinawa. Jelawat still has dropped heavy rain and really stong winds with videos showing some damage. Jelawat is in unfavorable conditions and will not strengthen as he heads toward Japan. Okinawa will not get as strong wind as previously forecasted but they will still get some impacts. This is same for Japan and that is something neither country needs. Jelawat will continue to weaken due to cooler waters over the next few days. In 1-2 days Jelawat will be flying by Japan and becoming an extra-tropical storm. Models are in a pretty good agreement of where Jelawat will go and how strong, unlike Nadine. I have even made a forecast for Jelawat, this is something I rarely do with pacific storms. Jelawat will become an extra-tropical storm in a couple days.
Updated Hurricane Scale
I have been working on an updated hurricane scale for the past week now. Over this week I have made some changes or fixed some bugs. Earlier today I updated the graphic to easier understand how my rating system works. You can see what column receives points and what ones don't easier and the whole graphic is easier to read. I will begin to look at the technical/ small details of my scale and make changes as needed. You can check out my full blog on it here.
My hurricane scale.
Have a great weekend everyone and I will have a new blog out tomorrow or Monday.
|
Updated: 8:40 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
|
Permalink |
A A A
|
Long-lived Nadine almost a hurricane again, Miriam dissipates, Jelawat weakening
TS Nadine
Nadine has actually been looking like a strong tropical storm over the past day or so. Nadine has improved her circulation and convection has fired over it. Currently the winds are 70mph, a 991mb pressure, and she is moving WNW at 7mph. Nadine will continue to meander around in the Atlantic for at least the next 5 days.
The structure of Nadine actually represents a strong TS to minimal hurricane, a first in a while for Nadine. Microwave imagery is showing an eyewall developing around the center of Nadine. Outflow is present on all sides and is looking great. All signs point to a strengthening tropical storm. Nadine will be in a somewhat favorable environment for the next day or two before conditions get worse. I think Nadine has a good chance of becoming a hurricane and have Nadine becoming one later today/tonight. Some of the models do make Nadine a hurricane and with how she is looking my idea is not a bad one. After tomorrow wind shear begins to increase over Nadine weakening her back to a tropical storm. Cooler waters will begin to affect Nadine as she heads toward the Azores. No matter how strong Nadine is she should again bring rain and wind to the Azores.
Models have been coming into a better agreement for the shorter term forecast. I am somewhere near the middle of the guidance track wise. I call for Nadine to make a turn to the NW and then to the N over the next day or so. After going N for a day or two I have Nadine turning ENE towards the Azores. After that it is too unpredictable to even make a forecast, and this one is low confidence knowing Nadine's past. Nadine should continue to live her days in the Atlantic with her death date unknown.
Post-tropical storm Miriam and 94E
Miriam was once a powerful category 3 hurricane, not anymore. Miriam has fallen due to high shear and cool waters. Right now there is just a naked swirl which is the remnant low. The remnants should not try to redevelop and they won't affect land. Some moister from Miriam's former self will make it into the US providing increased rainfall chances for parts of the US.
94E is losing its chances of development. It was once likely to develop but it never happened. Shear and cooler waters have slowed development with 94E and it is now running out of time. 94E is going to make landfall in about a day which will kill any chances of development. 94E will still bring Mexico and even the US some rain and wind. I give 94E a 70% chance of development over the next 48hrs. The latest TWO now shows 94E will likely get named at 11am.
Typhoon Jelawat
Typhoon Jelawat was one of the strongest and most beautiful tropical cyclones in all of 2012. He got all the way up to a 160mph cat5 super typhoon. He had a solid eyewall and even a pinwheel eye at one time. Every cool thing has to come to an end though, which is great for the people of Okinawa and Japan. An EWRC has been weakening Jelawat and, unlike the last 2, he will not recover from the EWRC. Okinawa will not get as strong wind as previously forecasted but they will still get some impacts. This is same for Japan and that is something neither country needs. Jelawat will continue to weaken due to cooler waters over the next few days. In 3-4 days Jelawat will be flying by Japan and becoming an extra-tropical storm. Models are in a pretty good agreement of where Jelawat will go and how strong, unlike Nadine. I have even made a forecast for Jelawat, this is something I rarely do with pacific storms.
Have a great Friday everyone and I will have a new update tomorrow or Sunday. Here is my blog from 2 days ago on the SS scale, my proposed scale, and hurricane Isaac, Link.
|
Updated: 9:23 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
|
Permalink |
A A A
|
Nadine still alive
Topical storm Nadine is still moving around in the Atlantic Ocean. She has actually even looked better than she did 12 hours ago. Currently Nadine has 60mph winds, 992mb pressure, and she is moving SW at 6mph. The circulation has became better defined even though convection is limited. This has been the story of Nadine for the past several days of her fluctuations in intensity. Nadine has the second highest amount of ACE in the Atlantic and will likely take the number 1 spot in a few days. Nadine also could become one of longest lived tropical storms/hurricanes in the Atlantic, if not the longest.
The forecast for Nadine is once again not going to be an easy one. Nadine has never been easy to forecast and won't start being easy anytime soon. Right now models are confused as to how long Nadine stays alive and where she goes. Some models take Nadine east while others take her SW or have her doing little movement. Right now I have to try to pick a consensus and make an educated guess. Personally I have just about seen this name enough to start wanting it to go away. Most models however keep Nadine alive for a good amount of time and we will have to see. All I can say is I think Nadine will last for about another week or so and follow somewhat near the NHC track.
Intensity wise Nadine is coming back. Her satellite presentation has been improving throughout the morning. I think Nadine could even do a little more strengthening despite the lack of convection. Nadine is currently over warm water and the environment has lower shear. This would support strengthening if it wasn't for a good amount of dry air in Nadine's way. Over the next couple days the environment will deteriorate and Nadine should weaken. It is possible that the combination of shear, dry air, and cooler waters finally kill her off. I think Nadine should be able to stay alive and after that conditions get a little better. Right now it is just too unpredictable to back a high confidence forecast for Nadine.
Have a great Thursday everyone and I will have a full tropical update later today or tomorrow. Here is the link to my Hurricane Isaac and Saffir-Simpson blog, Link.
|
Updated: 12:07 PM GMT on September 27, 2012
|
Permalink |
A A A
|
Hurricane Isaac and the Saffir Simpson scale
Hurricane Isaac
Hurricane Isaac had a big impact on many lives in the US and around North America. Isaac has caused lots of damage in the US and Caribbean islands. In the US alone so far $2 billion dollars in damage have been done with 9 fatalities. In all Isaac has caused over $2 billion USD in damage and over 40 fatalities. These numbers, at least damages, are expected to rise as more surveys go on. Many homes were lost to the surge, flooding, and wind. Surge was up to 14-15ft, up to 20" of rain fell, and 80mph winds blasted the coast. While at first Isaac was forecasted to strengthen into a strong cat2 he was never able to. Too much dry air and a lack of a central core prevented any strengthening in the gulf until landfall. When Isaac was making landfall his structure improved and winds came up, but his size/surge would be the biggest problem. Many were caught off guard when Isaac came in as he wasn't supposed to "be a strong hurricane". Many people will never forget hurricane Isaac and it is possible the name Isaac is retired from the hurricane naming list. Isaac was a difficult storm to forecast and left forecasters thinking. No one had really expected Isaac to not strengthen or take the path he did. What I want to address is the problems with the current hurricane rating system and propose a new one.
Explaining the Saffir Simpson scale
This is the current scale that rates tropical storms and hurricanes. It is mostly based off of just wind speed and doesn't provide much info on storm surge and rain. The scale is broken down into separate categories based off of how strong the winds are. The categories in the scale are tropical depression, tropical storm, category 1 hurricane, category 2 hurricane, category 3 hurricane, category 4 hurricane, and category 5 hurricane. A tropical depression is pretty weak and a tropical storm has some rain, wind, and surge. Hurricanes are further branched of into the numbered categories of 1-5 with 1 being the weakest and 5 being the strongest and 3 or higher is considered a major hurricane. This scale is the official hurricane scale for the Atlantic Ocean and the Eastern/Central Pacific Ocean. Storms usually form from tropical depressions and then strengthen and go higher on the scale. However, we get exceptions to this or storms expose flaws in our current scale which needs to be fixed.
What went wrong with the SSHS
Hurricane Isaac is only the latest example to show problems with the SSHS. Some other examples would be Ike, Charley, and even Katrina has shown things with the SSHS. What we have seen is that a really large storm may not have as strong of winds as the pressure indicates, but have a big storm surge. A small storm may have strong winds but little storm surge. Also extreme amounts of rainfall dropped from some storms is not taken into account. Thus a false warning is sent out to the public and this could be potentially fatal. Isaac has been a costly reminder that it is time to change how we rate/forecast our storms. It could've been worse with Isaac, but it was still very ugly. I feel now is the time to begin to change before another storm comes along and things don't go to plan.
How to fix/change the SSHS and my proposed scale
As I have already said, the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale needs to be changed. To get people more aware of the dangers and to more accurately rate storms I have made changes. I call my scale the Modified Tropical Intensity Scale. First I have changed the wind speeds just a little from the SSHS to my scale, the MTIS. It is just so I can adjust the categories around a little and so the is a more uniformed increase in winds. My second change, a big one, is to add a new category. Usually tropical storms are downplayed even when the reach the upper limits so I want to address this. The severe tropical storm category is the upper level of a tropical storm and people will take it more seriously. I have based this off the Western Pacific using a similar thing and I liked the idea. Then I had to take care of the storm surge and rainfall issue. I have 3 columns in my scale and they are wind, storm surge, and rainfall. The MTIS mostly focuses on wind and surge but also includes rainfall in the decisions. Hopefully this will more accurately indicate the strength of a tropical storm or hurricane. Finally I have created a points system to help rank where a storm or hurricane goes. There is some flexibility with this part but usually it should work out fine. I am hoping this would be a better solution than the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.
Comments and suggestions would be great so I can look at any initial flaws and make improvements. Have a wonderful Wednesday everyone! I will have a tropical update later today but a link to this blog will be at that one.
|
Updated: 5:11 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
|
Permalink |
A A A
|
Nadine strengthns again and 94L close to a subtropical storm
TS Nadine
Tropical storm Nadine strengthens as she moves away from the Azores. Currently winds are at 65mph, pressure is 981mb, and she is moving SE at 8mph. While the wind speeds have came up and the pressure has dropped her satellite appearance is dwindling. There is little convection on the NE half of the storm and overall convection is not extremely deep. The reason for strengthening is Nadine is probably getting some non-tropical energy as conditions are not good for strengthening. With the intensity uptick there is some changes in the forecast from earlier.
Nadine continues to be a confusing storm with this intensity jump. This was a surprise given Nadine should be weakening or at least maintaining strength earlier. Also satellite shows that Nadine is not doing good. The whole northern side of the storm is void of convection and there doesn't look to be improvement. In fact, satellite imagery is showing Nadine may be trying to turn extra-tropical which is something to watch. Wind shear is pretty strong over Nadine and SST's are cool so any rising of the winds isn't from tropical organization. I do believe in the next few days Nadine should transition to an extra-tropical storm. Shear could decrease for a little bit but I'm not totally sure if that will happen or what Nadine would even do. After that Nadine's future is up in the air.
Models are still split on where Nadine will go. They can not agree on where/when a recurve would happen. This has been the norm for the models over the past few days. In the short term models show an ESE movement, which is backed up by the current environment. There is little agreement between the global models after a few days. My forecast doesn't have a lot of confidence since models don't have a lot of agreement. I see Nadine moving ESE to SE over the next couple days and then everything is mostly unknown.
Invest 94L
Invest 94L has changed little in organization over the past day. Any little change has not had much affect on the system. Currently 94L is a non-tropical low with tropical storm force winds. 94L has 40mph winds, a 1006mb pressure, and is moving WNW at 10mph per the latest ATCF update. 94L is trying to become a subtropical storm as shown by the circulation and some thunderstorms tightening up. Right now conditions are conducive for some strengthening for another 2 days or so. Then 94L will get absorbed by a front and any tropical development will be stopped. I think 94L has a good chance of becoming a subtropical storm and I give it a 60% chance in the next 48hrs of doing so. The NHC gives 94L a 50% chance in their latest update which is still a good chance. If 94L doesn't ramp up soon I will have to begin to lower my chances on 94L developing.
My Forecast
Have a great Friday everyone and I'll have a new update tomorrow on Nadine, 94L, 93E, and the new Western Pacific storm.
|
Updated: 11:58 AM GMT on September 21, 2012
|
Permalink |
A A A
|
Nadine maintaing strength and 94L organinzing
TS Nadine
Tropical storm Nadine has not lost her tropical characteristics yet near the Azores. In fact some convection has developed over the center of circulation which could help her over the cooler waters. Currently Nadine has 50mph winds, a 983mb pressure, and is ESE at 9mph. As mentioned above, Nadine's satellite appearance is improving as she turns to the SE. The waters will warm somewhat over the next few days and Nadine could strengthen some and acquire back all of its tropical characteristics. Right now there may be some non-tropical energy getting absorbed into Nadine. The pressure drop may be an explanation for this happening. There is a chance Nadine could turn into a remnant low over the next few days. It would be because of some shear and cooler waters, but I don't find this likely. An upper level low could slide over her and make Nadine into a strong TS like Beryl earlier this year. This is possible but I don't find it too likely. I think Nadine will become extra-tropical over the next few days as she has been trying to already do that. It is possible that she regains tropical characteristics over warmer waters.
Nadine's track is still a pretty difficult forecast. Nadine is still in a weaker steering environment so she could wobble a little. Most models indicate for Nadine to continue to go SE for the next couple days. After 48-72hrs there is little consensus with the models. The GFS ensemble is split and models can't decide too well if she will turn W, E, S, or N. For right now I will go a little farther to the west of the NHC track but nothing is set in stone. No matter what the Azores need to continue to monitor Nadine as they will be receiving impacts regardless of her exact track.
Invest 94L
Invest 94L continues to strengthen as is spins hundreds of miles away from Bermuda. This low has some decent convection and a good spin and the environment is conducive for strengthening. I give 94L a high chance, 60%, of becoming a subtropical or tropical storm in the next 48hrs. The NHC gives 94L a medium chance, 40%, of becoming a TC in 48hrs. I feel with the recent organization trends that the probability is higher. However, currently 94L is mostly non-tropical but it is getting tropical characteristics right now. 94L has 35mph winds, a 1010mb pressure, and is moving at 10mph to the WNW per the latest ATCF update. 94L should be able to become a subtropical storm in the next 48hrs. After that it is possible that is stays subtropical or becomes fully tropical. No matter what 94L becomes of 94L it will move to the WNW and the NW and eventually near Canada. People in Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, and even parts of the US need to watch 94L.
My forecast for Nadine and 94L
Have a great day everyone and I'll have another update tomorrow.
Nadine and Lane weakening and new ATL AOI
TS Nadine
Over the past few days tropical storm Nadine has been making the transition from tropical to extra-tropical. On satellite Nadine looks extra-tropical but there is probably still some warm core characteristics. Currently Nadine has 50mph winds, a 993mb pressure, and is moving N at 5mph. Cooler waters and high wind shear have made Nadine to continue to weaken. With Nadine not being fully tropical she will behave a little different than to a fully tropical system up here. Some of the indicators for determining cyclone strength suggest Nadine is also turning extra-tropical. She still has a well defined circulation with tropical storm force winds tropical or non-tropical. She should be able to hold her strength more and models don't show much in the way of intensity change. As for track models are unsure of were Nadine will go. The ECMFW(European) model takes Nadine to the west but I think this is unlikely. A more likely solution is a turn to the east and even SE and possibly hit Europe of N Africa. People in the Azores need to be ready for some sort of TS conditions and TS warnings are in effect.
ATL AOI
An area of showers and thunderstorms east of Bermuda needs to be watched. Even though they are associated with a non-tropical low the low could pick up tropical characteristics. As long as it stays over warm ocean waters it has a chance of getting named. Currently the low is moving west at 10mph and is no threat to land.
My Atlantic Outlook
TD Lane
TD Lane is quickly weakening over the open waters of the Eastern Pacific. Cool SST's and shear have quickly weakened Lane from a hurricane to a tropical depression. His center is completely void of convection and this should not change. Currently Lane has 35mph winds, a 1009mb pressure, and is moving WNW at 9mph. Lane should continue to weaken over the next couple days. In a couple days Lane should be a remnant low and he is no threat to land.
Have a great Wednesday and I'll have a tropical update tomorrow and my Isaac and Saffer Simpson scale blog out in the next few days.
Nadine a TS, Lane a hurricane, Very early winter forecast
TS Nadine
Tropical storm Nadine is slowly weakening and turning extra-tropical as she heads toward the Azores. Satellite appearance shows the transition from tropical to post-tropical due to shear and cooler waters. Currently Nadine has 60mph winds, has a 989mb pressure, and is moving NE at 9mph. Convection has been trying to cover the center back up and over the past few hours has been having more success. This convection is weak though and the environment doesn't favor strengthening. Nadine should maintain strength or even weaken slightly over the next 5 days. The track is what will be very difficult. Models are very split on exactly where Nadine will go and if she will be tropical or non-tropical. Nadine should continue to go NE until she gets near the Azores and then, as most models indicate, turn around and head toward the south. Nadine could go SW and turn tropical, go S and slowly turn tropical, or go SE and possibly stay extra-tropical. No matter where Nadine exactly tracks she will bring squally weather to the Azores. Nadine will also most likely be alive for awhile before either dying off or getting picked up by a trough. People in the Azores need to be preparing for possible TS conditions.
Hurricane Lane
Hurricane Lane in the Eastern Pacific is slowly strengthening over open waters. He is expected to weaken soon and be a remnant low in a few days. Currently Lane has 80mph winds, a 989mb pressure, and is moving NNW at 10mph. His appearance on satellite is pretty good right now but should begin to change. Some change is already evident as his eye is starting to dissapear. Lane will turn to the WNW and weaken over the next few days. Lane is not a threat to land and will turn extra-tropical in a few days.
My tropical forecast
Early winter forecast
As summer comes to a close and fall begins winter is close to beginning. Some areas will feel winter conditions in a month or two so it is around time to make my first 2012-2013 winter forecast.
Right now I am thinking we will be in a warm neutral ENSO pattern. This has a great affect on how the winter will shape up. I think we will have a negative PDO and NAO which will allow more cold air to flow down from the Artic. The Great Lakes will see cooler weather with an average to above average snowfall. The NE/Mid Atlantic should see a few Nor'easters this year which would have good snow totals. The plains and upper Midwest could see average to mild weather this winter. In the SW a wet winter with mountain snow is possible and a mild winter in the NW. This forecast will likely change as we get closer to winter and is not an official HPC forecast.
Have a great Tuesday and I will have an update tomorrow plus a blog on the hurricane rating system/changes needed later in the afternoon today.
|
Updated: 5:08 AM GMT on September 18, 2012
|
Permalink |
A A A
|
Nadine maintaining strength, Kristy weakening, Sanba peaked
TS Nadine
Tropical storm Nadine hasn't changed much in the past day as convection and outflow remains around the same. Right now Nadine has 70mph winds, a 988mb pressure, and is moving NNW at 15mph. TAFB has Nadine at 65 knots and SAB has her at 55 knots, so the NHC kept Nadine at 60 knots. Wind shear of around 20 knots is preventing organization into a hurricane. For this storm dry air isn't a problem, but the southerly shear has been and will continue to be for another day or so. High wind shear should continue for another 1-2 days and then relax as called for by most models. This should allow the already decent convection and outflow to improve and allow strengthening. Nadine also needs to still build up her eyewall. Once Nadine does that and shear relaxes we should see Nadine become a hurricane. Models show Nadine strengthening into a hurricane and most keeping her a cat1. I also have Nadine becoming a hurricane as the environment down the road supports intensification. Nadine will be a threat to the Azores. Nadine should be a hurricane when it hits/gets close to those islands. They need to watch the progress of Nadine as she would cause problems to areas already hit from hurricane Gordon earlier this year.
Figure 1: TS Nadine is holding her own against wind shear.
TS Kristy
Tropical storm Kristy is in a losing battle against shear and cooler waters. Right now Kristy has 50mph winds and a 1002mb pressure. The convection has been displaced at times and her circulation has been exposed. Things will only go down hill and I think her current intensity is her peak. She is not a threat to land and will dissipate in 4-5 days.
Figure 2: Kristy struggles against cooler SST's and wind shear.
Super typhoon Sanba
Super typhoon Sanba was able to get all the way up to 170mph wind speeds yesterday. This meant that she was the strongest storm this year. Sanba looked perfect and had even got annular characteristics for a little bit. Sanba now has been weakening and her satellite appearance shows this. She is probably not a cat5 but a cat4. Sanba is undergoing an EWRC( eye wall replacement cycle) which is weakening her. Hopefully she will never recover from this and Won't hit Korea/China as hard. Sanba will still produce destructive wind, storm surge, and heavy rain. People in Sanba's forecasted path need to be preparing for a strong typhoon.
Figure 3: Super typhoon Sanba doing an EWRC.
Figure 4: My forecast for Nadine.
Have a great Friday and I'll have an update tomorrow with a couple of special blogs over the weekend.
|
Updated: 10:59 PM GMT on September 14, 2012
|
Permalink |
A A A
|
Nadine almost a hurricane, Kristy forms, Sanba a rapidly strengthening typhoon
TS Nadine
TS Nadine formed just over 24hrs ago and has been strengthening nicely. Right now Nadine has 70mph winds and a 990mb pressure and is moving NW @ 16mph. She has solid convection and outflow on all sides which is good for strengthening, see figure 1. Recent microwave pass however shows that the eyewall is only partially formed. Satellite estimates and a recent ASCAT pass show 60knt winds so the NHC has Nadine right now at 70mph. Nadine is trying to still do more organizing and she should be a hurricane today. She needs to build a proper eyewall before she can return to quick strengthening. I now say a 95mph peak as it has taken her just a little longer than I thought to strengthen into a hurricane. Nadine is in a good environment for about another 36ish hours and then will be affected by shear. That shear is from the same trough that dissipated Leslie and Michael. Luckily a strong ull will pull Nadine in closer so that it isn't weakened dramatically by the trough. So in short Nadine will be sharply turned to the ENE by a trough and pulled in by a low. Nadine could be a threat to the Azores and possibly Europe but it's too far out to tell.
Figure 1: Nadine has good convection and outflow but some more work needs to be done.
Figure 2: My latest forecast for Nadine
TS Kristy
TS Kristy formed yesterday in the Eastern pacific. Right now Kristy has 50mph winds and a 1002mb pressure. She is not the best looking storm but she is still developing. Kristy is forecasted to become a strong TS but could get to a minimal hurricane. Once She gets too far north cooler waters and shear will weaken Kristy and eventually turn her post-tropical. Kristy should stay out to sea but the Baja needs to still watch her just in case.
Figure 3: TS Kristy is developing in the epac.
Typhoon Sanba
Typhoon Sanba is a really good looking typhoon. It has very deep convection, a crystal clear eye, and great outflow. the JTWC has Sanba at a conservative 115knts. She is estimated by ADT and SAB/TAFB to be a cat4-5. Her satellite appearance shows that, it also shows a NE movement. Sanba is a threat to some Asian countries and can't be taken lightly. Sanba is a huge storm and its impacts will be far reaching where ever she goes.
Figure 4: Typhoon Sanba most likely as a cat5.
Have a great Thursday and I'll have an update tomorrow morning.
TS Nadine forms with more waves to come
TS Nadine
Last night TD14 strengthened enough to be classified as a tropical storm. SAB/TAFB #'s along with T#'s and ATCF all showed Nadine was a TS. As of the 5am advisory Nadine has 45mph winds, a 1001mb pressure, and is moving WNW @ 17mph. Nadine has a nice circulation which is very evident on satellite. Satellite also shows good sized/strength convection which is something a developing storm needs, see Figure 1. Microwave imagery shows that a weak eyewall may be trying to already form. Wind shear is light, air is moist, waters are warm so Nadine has a great environment for the next few days to work with. She will be able to strength up to a cat1 maybe a cat2 hurricane before she runs into harsher conditions. Those would be higher shear which would allow some dry air to get in. Shear and dry air would disrupt the circulation and convection which causes weakening. The trough will have turned Nadine off to the east and accelerate here. Nadine is a possible threat to the Azores but it is too far out to exactly know.
Figure 1: Satellite shows a healthy TS with good outflow and convection.
Possible development
The GFS and Euro models both predict a few storms and a few more waves coming off Africa look promising. The GFS has been somewhat consistent with a TS developing near the Cape Verde Islands in the late part of the run. It also has shown some development in the NW Caribbean. Since it is that far out it can't be sure if it will happen. The ECMFW develops a weak system in the GOM and sends it near the gulf coast. It also develops a TS in the upper latitudes and then the run ends. Some strong waves over Africa need to be watched for development, see figure 2.
Figure 2: Africa has a few strong waves with a really good one that is not seen in this picture.
My Forecast
Figure 3: My forecast for Nadine which I take her up to a 100mph cat2 before weakening.
Have a great Wednesday and I'll have an update tomorrow.
Leslie making landfall in Newfoundland, Michael weakening, 91L almost TD14
TS Leslie
Tropical storm Leslie is racing of to the Northeast at a fast 40mph. Currently Leslie has 70mph winds and a 968mb pressure. Leslie is most likely post-tropical right now as she is showing those characteristics. Newfoundland is already receiving rain and TS force winds as Leslie closes in. Leslie is very close, if not already, extra-tropical. There is a long front-like band extending from Leslie and no convection over the center. Waters are very cool in this region and Leslie is also being absorbed by a trough. Leslie will continue to race of to the northeast and most likely post-tropical today. There should be some tree damage and power outages but nothing severe in Newfoundland. The extra-tropical storm will race toward Greenland and Iceland and provide them with some rain and wind. We will be done with Leslie in the next day or so. Edit: It looks as if Leslie is coming ashore or about to come inland.
TS Michael
Michael is rapidly weakening and losing his tropical characteristics. Currently he has 65mph winds, 994mb pressure, and is moving N @ 18mph. He has no convection over the center and has a front-like tail as well. Environment conditions support more weakening and Michael should be gone in the next 24 hours. He and his remnants shouldn't be a threat to land.
91L
Invest 91L has some struggles but overall is doing good. The environment for 91L is conducive for strengthening and I expect to see a hurricane out of this. Right now 91L has a well defined circulation but convection is limited. Once more convection forms over the center we will get a TD. The NHC has 91L at 90% but they said that it will most likely be TD14 at 11am. I think we will see TS Nadine over the next couple days and eventually a hurricane. For now it looks like 91L should stay out to sea with just a marine threat.
My Forecast
Have a great Tuesday and I'll have an update in the next day!
|
Updated: 11:56 AM GMT on September 11, 2012
|
Permalink |
A A A
|
No change in strength for Lesle, Michael weakening, 91L organizing
TS Leslie
Tropical storm Leslie has not changed strength for awhile as she goes off to the NNE at 16mph. Her current intensity is 60mph winds and a 988mb pressure and she is located at 35.7N/61.2W as of the latest advisory. Leslie is still being affected by dry air and this has kept her from doing much. Right now the dry air is getting in from the south and western sides of Leslie. This is confirmed by the lack of convection is these areas. Convection has been lacking in all quadrants at different times, it just depends where the dry air gets in at that time. Bermuda got rain and TS force wind from Leslie, luckily Leslie never got to become a major hurricane. Not much has come out of Bermuda right now and I suspect they did fine. Leslie should continue to head away from Bermuda and in a couple days hit New Newfoundland most likely as a TS. A trough will accelerate Leslie to the NE and Leslie will be becoming extra-tropical as it gets near Canada. After Canada Leslie may be a threat to Greenland, Iceland, or the UK. Leslie will also be interacting with Michael/Michael's remnants. Most likely Leslie will absorb Michael into her larger circulation. Leslie's peak was 75mph, luckily not 120mph as there would have been more damage to Bermuda.
Hurricane Michael
Hurricane Michael is moving to the west at a slower pace of 7mph. Michael has 80mph winds and a 97mb pressure. He still has good convection and an eye but everything has been decreasing. Michael was once a 120mph major hurricane which was the first major of the season. Michael has been meandering around as there hasn't been much in the way of steering. A trough that is picking up Leslie will also turn and pick up Michael. He will continue to weaken and is not a threat to land. Michael should end up getting absorbed into Leslie to create a big extra-tropical storm.
91L
A couple days ago we got a vigorous tropical wave to come off the coast of Africa. This wave was tagged as invest 91L. Right now the NHC gives 91L a 90% chance of becoming a TD in the next 48hrs. Currently I agree with the percentage set at 90% to maybe 1000% right now. 91L should become a TD and then TS Nadine over the next few days. It is possible that 91L becomes a hurricane/ major hurricane or it just stays a troubled TS. Right now the pattern favors a re-curve out to sea and 91L looks to follow this. 91L right now doesn't look to be a threat to much land but it is still worth watching.
My Forecast
I made this just before the 8am TWO so 91L is officially at 90% and I give now 100%.
Future Development
Models are indicating that a few more Cape Verde type storms ill be possible over the next few weeks. A couple waves are currently over Africa and once a wave gets into the Atlantic it bears watching. Also after the next few weeks we will be looking close to home for development. The SE US coast, GOM, and NW Caribbean will be the hot spots most likely for the last couple months of hurricane season.
Have a safe Monday and I will have an update in the next day or two.
|
Updated: 11:52 AM GMT on September 10, 2012
|
Permalink |
A A A
|
Special update: Severe weather outbreak over the NE US today
There is a likely decent sized severe weather event in the Northeast US later today. This is the same system that produced severe weather in the Ohio Valley yesterday. The SPC has issued a moderate risk of severe weather for parts of the NE including NYC and Philadelphia. They also have a enhanced tornado threat today in those same areas. There will be 2 types of tornado threats today. One will be from discrete supercells that form out in front of the squall line and brief spin-ups along the squall line. Wind shear will be there for the strong winds/tornadoes, provided by a trough coming in. CAPE will high enough for tornadoes, wind, and hail. Storms will be/are firing on and ahead of the surface cold front. At first storms will be mostly isolated to scattered thunderstorms but as the day/storms progress they will form into a destructive squall line. Winds will be possibly up to hurricane force and brief tornadoes from the squall line are possible as well. Today may not be a high risk day but a big threat remains and everyone in the NE needs to take this severe weather outbreak today seriously. Stay safe everyone and I will have a tropical update/graphical forecast later today.
|
Updated: 12:27 PM GMT on September 08, 2012
|
Permalink |
A A A
|
Leslie slowly weakening, Michael holding his own, new AOI
TS Leslie
TS Leslie has been slowly moving northward over the past few days. Not much has been happening with her as different problems have kept her at bay. Leslie did become a 75mph hurricane for a while but lost some integrity and weakened back to a TS. Right now Leslie has 65mph winds and a pressure of 983mb. Leslie is in a way like Isaac, both had lower pressures for their wind speeds. Leslie right now is still having issues. Dry air intrusion is causing a lack of thunderstorms over the center and a comma like shape. The dry air and some shear are preventing Leslie from becoming a hurricane again. Also Leslie does not have a solid core. This is also preventing her from strengthening a lot and making her more prone to dry air and shear. I don't see Leslie ever strengthening more than a cat1. There are too many factors that support against any major strengthening. Leslie should move to the east of Bermuda and provide some impacts. They won't be bad and Bermuda will be just fine. Leslie will begin to race off to the NNE and then NE due to a trough that pulls her away. Leslie could bring TS impacts to parts of Canada. Leslie will then begin to interact with Michael and turn into a strong extra-tropical storm.
Hurricane Michael
Hurricane Michael is slowly weakening as he churns the north Atlantic. Michael is being affected by cooler waters and some shear. He is still maintaining strength with only slight weakening. Right now Michael has 100mph winds and a 974mb pressure. He has a rugged eye and decent convection despite the environment. He will move off the NW and weaken. Michael is not a threat to land and will be gone in 4-5 days.
AOI's
90L: Invest 90L is currently spinning in the gulf. It has a 20% chance of developing in the nest 48hrs by the NHC and a 10% chance by me. The center is void of convection and dry air and shear will only become more of a problem. Not much will come from 90L but it still needs to be watched for now.
African AOI: A new wave has emerged over Africa. It is a vigorous wave and is a threat to develop. Most global models develop this into a TS but recurve it out to sea. This wave needs to be watched for development and any threat to land.
I'll have two blog updates tomorrow, one on the tropics and one on the severe weather outbreak.
Have a great weekend everyone!
Leslie holding her own, Kirk turning extra-tropical, new invest
TS Leslie
We are now nearing the peak date and there are a few areas to talk about. TS Leslie formed a few days ago and gave us 8 storms for August. For now Leslie has peaked at 70mph and has been weakening. Right now Leslie has 60mph winds, 998mb pressure, and is moving NW @ 10mph.For a couple days Leslie had been looking good and steadily intensifying. Then strong wind shear came along and changed Leslie's plans. Her center is now exposed and all the convection is on the south side of the storm. Her winds have came down and the pressure came up due to this. Leslie will be in a sheared environment for a few more days and possibly weaken a little more or stay the same. After shear decreases Leslie should take off in intensity. Leslie will continue to slowly go to the north west the nest few days. Once she gets near Bermuda, possibly as a strong hurricane, then it is likely that she stalls. A trough will eventually come and pull Leslie out and turn her into a big extra-tropical storm if the models are correct. There is a low chance for a US hit and a higher chance for Canada. People in Bermuda, US, and Canada need to watch Leslie closely.
Post-TS Kirk & 99L
TS Kirk has official lost all tropical characteristics and the final advisory has been written. Kirk has 50mph winds, 1002mb pressure, and is moving at a very fast 47mph. Looking at the satellite you can tell Kirk has made the transition. Kirk will not be a threat to land and will quickly get absorbed into the trough.
An invest had formed last night and it was tagged 99L. It is currently over the northern Atlantic and is so far not a threat to land. It has a tight small circulation but there isn't a lot of convection. The NHC give it a 10% chance of development but I give it a 20% chance. I do because these small systems wrap up quickly and we have had other storms in that area this year. We will have to watch 99L to see if it tries to develop.
My forecast and outlook:
I'll have a new update tomorrow, have a safe Labor Day weekend!
Remnants of Isaac still alive, TS Kirk weakening, Leslie slowly organizing
Remnants of Isaac
Isaac is the type of storm that just does not want to go away. The remnants of Isaac and before that Isaac have been going up to the Ohio Valley now. The remnants of Isaac are bringing heavy rain, flooding, and tornadoes to parts of the plains and Ohio valley. Tornadoes were reported near St. Louis yesterday and flooding has been widespread. Beneficial rain has fallen in the drought stricken areas and Isaac is being thanked for this. Isaac's damage has already been done in the gulf and will be remembered for a long time. Isaac did at least $2 billion dollars in insured damage, that is expected to rise and uninsured damages, and some fatalities were reported. Even though Isaac was "only a cat1" he did a lot of damage and it could've been worse. I'll be writing a blog on how the Saffer Simpson scale did with Isaac and my idea of how to fix some problems in the next few days.
Figure 1: Isaac's remnants over the Midwest
TS Kirk
TS Kirk is rapidly exiting stage left. Kirk has been weakening over the past day or so as drier air, shear and cooler waters work against him. Kirk is also turning extra-tropical as he interacts with a trough and should complete the process in about 24 hours. Right now Kirk has 70mph winds, a 989mb pressure, and is moving NE @ 25mph. Convection has been waning and his circulation a little less defined. Kirk should weaken to a TS later today. Kirk is not a threat to land and only to some shipping interests.
Figure 2: TS Kirk turning extra-tropical as he speeds NE.
TS Leslie
TS Leslie has been slowly organizing but still has some problems. She has brought herself all the way up to a strong TS. Right now Leslie has 70mph winds, 994mb pressure, and is moving WNW at 18mph. She has excellent out flow over most of the storm and a good amount of convection. Leslie's problem is a disorganized center. The LLC and MLC have been tilted and not very organized. Leslie is trying to fix that problem with a possible new LLC under the MLC. We will have to wait another few hours before we see if this is really happening. Leslie is starting to feel the weakness of the ridge to the north. She is turning to the north but will still bring impacts to the Leeward Islands. Leslie will get very close to Bermuda and could bring TS to even hurricane conditions there depending how close she gets. Leslie has a low landfall threat to the US and and little higher threat to Canada. A trough should re-curve Leslie out to see but if the ridge is stronger than expected Leslie could get closer to the US and Canada. My forecast for Leslie and Kirk can be found in figure 4 and my new graphical outlook in figure 5.
Figure 3: Leslie churning the water of the Atlantic
I'll have a new update tomorrow. Here is my forecast and outlook.
Figure 4: my forecast, not official. Do not use for making life or death decisions. Go to the NHC for the official forecast.
Figure 5: my graphical outlook
|
Updated: 3:11 PM GMT on September 01, 2012
|
Permalink |
A A A
|
