QUIET AGAIN

By: whitewabit , 3:24 AM GMT on July 21, 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NORTHWESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS... SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR... IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 20N WITH A 1013 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW CENTER ARE OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH AN AREA OF DENSE AFRICAN DUST...THUS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS WEAK AND LOW AMPLITUDE AS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DENSE AFRICAN DUST...THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS...NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY OVER S MEXICO AND THE E PACIFIC REGION AS WELL AS BEING BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS MASKING THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N FROM 90W-97W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 9N19W 11N32W 8N47W 6N54W AND ACROSS PANAMA IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 8N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA FROM 54W-56W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N FROM 75W-84W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA... PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. CLUSTERS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 13W-20W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 24W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE E GULF NEAR 27N89W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING W TO INLAND OVER S TEXAS/NE MEXICO NEAR THE BORDER. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE N GULF COAST PRECEDING THE APPROACHING DEEP LAYERED TROUGH NOW RESIDING OVER THE NE US. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL INLAND OVER THE SE US...HOWEVER THE ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE GULF N OF 28N E OF LOUISIANA. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS COVERING THE S GULF S OF 24N W OF 86W ANCHORED OVER THE E PACIFIC NEAR A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THAT BASIN. CONVECTION IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE E COAST OF
FLORIDA COVERING THE AREA E OF 83W. DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS ENOUGH TO GENERATE A LINE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N87W TO 22N93W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE S GULF EXTENDS INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 83W WITH A SECOND WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OFF THE SE COAST OF FLORIDA TO OVER THE JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS SCENARIO IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N21N BETWEEN
73W-81W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF HAITI...JAMAICA...AND CUBA.
CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS OVER PANAMA. STRONG TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED BY LATER TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 26N79W WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING S OF 32N INTO THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 29N BETWEEN 71W-80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 29N W OF 74W TO OVER FLORIDA. UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR 28N63W SW INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 27N64W TO THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS DIPPING INTO THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N
FROM 30W-50W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION. UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC EXTENDING FROM OFF AFRICA NEAR 25N14W ALONG 24N28W TO NEAR 17N40W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC GIVING THE AREA E OF 70W LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS MUCH LESS SHOWERS. LARGE AREA OF DENSE SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA TO ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE E CARIBBEAN MOSTLY S OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THIS IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.
$$
WALLACE






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418. seflagamma
1:41 PM GMT on July 23, 2006
Good Morning Wabit,
I think I had a great time last night in your blog!!!LOL
We're we singing the Mt Dew song? LOL!
will back up and see.

Going to read the paper and do some things.

Code, got one of those beer can holders you put in a chicken to grill so going to do that today. Hope mine turns out as good as yours does! Gotta go to Publix and get me a big Chicken!!!
And going to try to get a few things done in the back yard if I can with the ankle.

So everyone have a great Sunday!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 309 Comments: 41110
417. Lovethetropics
11:59 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
Good morning Wab!! Wake up, it's Sunday!
Thanks for last night, it was so much fun with all the guys together in your blog!!
Make it a wonderful day!!!
Member Since: August 18, 2005 Posts: 236 Comments: 11372
416. Raysfan70
11:33 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
Good Morning {{wabit}}.
Have a Great Sunday. :)

Are you awake yet? Seems like alot of others that are still sleeping at this time are.
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
415. Skyepony
7:04 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
Thanks for keeping us up to date on MichaelSTL's blog:) Twas lovely weather on my 1/2 day galavant, then hot, then rain, sun, realy hot, humid, more rain, dark & finally,
75.0
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 364 Comments: 42545
414. Skyepony
6:26 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
Oh hey wabit, I've been refreshing but yours just now showed up?
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 364 Comments: 42545
413. Skyepony
6:24 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
gkoh1~ Hi! I think we missed the fun...
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 364 Comments: 42545
412. gkoh1
6:11 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
hi skye
411. whitewabit
6:09 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
hello Skye...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36255
410. Skyepony
6:02 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
Still up wabit?
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 364 Comments: 42545
409. nightbloomingjasmine
5:57 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
Nite LOL
408. whitewabit
5:56 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
nite Jasmine...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36255
407. nightbloomingjasmine
5:55 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
This is really it for me, Good night all Backing away from keyboard NOW!!!
406. gkoh1
5:53 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
nite code
405. gkoh1
5:53 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
must refresh ,must refresh lol
404. whitewabit
5:53 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
nite Code...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36255
403. whitewabit
5:52 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
LOL...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36255
402. code1
5:52 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
Really off this time. G'nite all!
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
401. nightbloomingjasmine
5:52 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
Not really, I said goodnite a while ago but keep refreshing. I'm addicted LOL
400. gkoh1
5:50 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
you are up late for you jassmine,glad to see you
399. code1
5:50 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
75F and 84% humidity here. It cooled down after dark with the rain today.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
398. Tazmanian
5:48 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
yes soon sund high may get pass 113 and may hit 155 or 115 or so
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5100 Comments: 117338
397. nightbloomingjasmine
5:48 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
Muggy
396. gkoh1
5:45 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
wow just checked humidity-it is 89% here.
but it feels alot less close than preceding nights.
what is it like in florida code?
395. whitewabit
5:43 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
David... but soon...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36255
394. Tazmanian
5:42 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
yes it well but not this yet
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5100 Comments: 117338
393. whitewabit
5:42 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
its 64 here but the humidity is up around 80 to 85%
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36255
392. gkoh1
5:40 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
it actually feels nice here tonight-60s and lower humidity
391. whitewabit
5:40 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
David...am glad its going to cool off for you...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36255
390. Tazmanian
5:37 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
oh by the way its going to get hoter for sunday then cool down for moday
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5100 Comments: 117338
389. whitewabit
5:37 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
well I am just usually a night owl...always have been...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36255
388. whitewabit
5:36 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
Hello David...hope it is cooler for you tomorrow...good night...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36255
387. code1
5:36 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
Nite Taz, hope it's not that hot for you tomorrow.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
386. Tazmanian
5:35 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
this poping in to say hi and saying good night my high was 113 and at time with no power well off to sleep for me now night
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5100 Comments: 117338
385. gkoh1
5:34 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
because of my work schedule-i dont change on weekends-i never go to bed before 3am and that would be early for me.
384. code1
5:31 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
Hi gkoh. Not sneaky wab, just nothing to contribute tonight.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
383. whitewabit
5:29 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
hello gkoh1...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36255
382. nightbloomingjasmine
5:29 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
Gk I thought you were asleep!!
381. whitewabit
5:29 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
Gamma...drink plenty of water in the morning...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36255
380. gkoh1
5:28 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
hi code,jass,and wabbit
379. whitewabit
5:28 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
Code your getting to be sneaky like me...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36255
378. code1
5:27 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
G'nite gamma. Wine headaches are bad!
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
377. whitewabit
5:27 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
night...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36255
376. seflagamma
5:25 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
Jas, I see your post just fine.
Cope, good night my friend, call in the afternoon as I may have a headach in the morning!
Wabit, had a great time in your blog tonight. now got my ice water ready to go and shut off the computer and make my way to bed!

My friends, had a great time tonight.
Thanks!!
Gams
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 309 Comments: 41110
375. code1
5:25 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
You too jas!
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
374. nightbloomingjasmine
5:24 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
Have a great nite
373. whitewabit
5:24 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
ok Jasmine...good night...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36255
372. code1
5:24 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
lol Wab, I grabbed your chair when you got up. Just been watching the festivities.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
371. nightbloomingjasmine
5:23 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
Ok Wab, I'm gone too. Guess the Irish coffee got to me. LOL
370. whitewabit
5:23 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
Jasmine No am not messing with your head....
all I see is the LOGO...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36255
369. whitewabit
5:23 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
nite Code...didn't know you were standing over in the corner....
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36255
368. nightbloomingjasmine
5:22 AM GMT on July 23, 2006
Nite code

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Retired weather junkie, currently living in Central Illinois. worst hurricane I've been through was Camille, in Biloxi, Ms. Retired Blog Moderator

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