Temperatures Up and Down

By: whitewabit , 7:05 PM GMT on May 14, 2014

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THIS SITE Does NOT reflect the official forecasts of the National Hurricane Center, when making decisions, please heed the advisories and evacuation statements of your local National Weather Service Office and the National Hurricane Center



A little about my self -

I joined weather Underground in August of 2005 right after they opened the blogging feature. I have been a weather hobbyist since the middle 60's when I lived on the west coast of Florida, north of the Tampa Bay area. I currently live in a small community in central Illinois.

I have been through numerous Hurricanes during my life time. The worse being Hurricane Camille in August 17,1969, A Cat 5, where the eye passed over the location I was at. That being Biloxi, Ms when I was in the USAF stationed at Keesler AFB.






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203. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
6:32 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
whitewabit has created a new entry.
202. whitewabit
5:38 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
Rain has moved east of old muddy and is headed our way .. looks like an hour and a half or so .. strong line of showers just moving through St Louis headed NE toward my location ..

will watch to see if it continues to intensify in this afternoons heat ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
201. whitewabit
3:32 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
90L s on shore and dissipating it appears .. heavy rain and flood can still occur ..

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Surface observations and satellite imagery indicate that the low
pressure area previously near Veracruz, Mexico, has moved farther
inland and is dissipating. However, the remnants of this system
could continue to produce gusty winds and heavy rains, along with
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, over portions of
southeastern and eastern Mexico during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Beven
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
200. whitewabit
3:12 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
78º here at 10 am going up into the low 80's this afternoon ..

Today

Mostly sunny in the morning...then occasional showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
199. whitewabit
3:12 AM GMT on June 07, 2014
hopefully the showers won't be all day and will be able to do a few things out side ..
Saturday

Weekend Forecast ..

Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning...then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Saturday Night

Showers and thunderstorms likely in the evening. Lows in the lower 60s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Sunday

Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
198. whitewabit
10:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2014
storms heating up to the west ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
197. whitewabit
4:37 PM GMT on June 06, 2014


SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1055 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the
area of low pressure about 40 miles east of Veracruz, Mexico, has
become a little better defined this morning as it moves slowly
west-northwestward. However, the associated thunderstorm activity
is currently poorly organized. A tropical depression could form
before the low reaches the coast of eastern Mexico later today or
tonight. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled
to investigate this system this afternoon. Whether a tropical
depression forms or not, this disturbance could produce heavy rains,
along with life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, over
portions of southeastern and eastern Mexico during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...70 percent.

Forecaster Beven
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
196. whitewabit
4:08 PM GMT on June 06, 2014
pleasant 75 degrees here this morning at 11 am .. 48% humidity and a Dew Point of 56º ..

going up to the lower 80's here this afternoon ..

good day to get the mowing done for the week ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
195. whitewabit
3:55 PM GMT on June 06, 2014
Quoting 194. Ylee:

You think the cold winter weather may have something to do with the strawberries being sweet? Flowers seem to be more plentiful, too!


the type of Spring we had I would think had more influence's on the sweetness ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
194. Ylee
2:13 AM GMT on June 06, 2014
You think the cold winter weather may have something to do with the strawberries being sweet? Flowers seem to be more plentiful, too!
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 93 Comments: 15536
193. whitewabit
8:12 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
My wife picked up some locally grown fresh strawberries today and they are the best I have had in several years .. seem sweeter this year verses other years ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
192. whitewabit
5:05 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
NHC giving 30% chance for 90L .. 90L is a large area of low pressure and with the wind sheer of 30 knots it will be hard to develop into anything stronger .. it is expected to move to the west with landfall in Mexico ..

Heavy rains and flash flooding will bring despair to the region ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
191. whitewabit
5:00 PM GMT on June 05, 2014


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have recently increased near a low
pressure area over the southern Bay of Campeche. Despite strong
upper-level winds, some further development of this system is
possible over the next day or two if the low remains offshore of
eastern Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary.
This disturbance has the potential to produce extremely heavy rains
and life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over portions of
southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Forecaster Blake
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
190. whitewabit
4:51 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Quoting 188. sandiquiz:

Many years ago I lived in a village, and next door lived a lady who was exactly 50 years to the day older than I was. I used to visit her after school, for tea and cake!
She told me many stories, and one was of a ball of lightning that went through her house. It had been a very hot day, and her husband had opened the rarely-used front door and the back door to let some breeze into the house. Being an old Victorian house, the front and back doors were placed at each end of a central hall.
The ball lightning came in the back door, went right down the hall, singeing the walls and setting fire to the curtains over the door, and out of the never opened front door! She said she could smell burning for weeks.
If the front door hadn't been open........well??


Sandi .. that is a big what if isn't it .. makes you wonder if the house would have caught on fire if the door hadn't been opened .. or it might not have gone through the house if the door was closed ..

one will never know ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
189. whitewabit
4:48 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Quoting 187. LakeWorthFinn:

Rain would be welcome here too, hopefully the GOM blob brings some.
Glad everybody is ok in spite of bacon bombs. My grandfather used to tell the story of a terrible ball lighting that burned a wall at his house. It was going up the electric wires. Scary.


Finn .. as long as its only rain the blob brings ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
188. sandiquiz
5:55 AM GMT on June 05, 2014
Many years ago I lived in a village, and next door lived a lady who was exactly 50 years to the day older than I was. I used to visit her after school, for tea and cake!
She told me many stories, and one was of a ball of lightning that went through her house. It had been a very hot day, and her husband had opened the rarely-used front door and the back door to let some breeze into the house. Being an old Victorian house, the front and back doors were placed at each end of a central hall.
The ball lightning came in the back door, went right down the hall, singeing the walls and setting fire to the curtains over the door, and out of the never opened front door! She said she could smell burning for weeks.
If the front door hadn't been open........well??
Member Since: October 29, 2005 Posts: 291 Comments: 26176
187. LakeWorthFinn
5:13 AM GMT on June 05, 2014
Rain would be welcome here too, hopefully the GOM blob brings some.
Glad everybody is ok in spite of bacon bombs. My grandfather used to tell the story of a terrible ball lighting that burned a wall at his house. It was going up the electric wires. Scary.
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7295
186. whitewabit
4:17 AM GMT on June 05, 2014
Quoting 185. juslivn:

Bacon frying sound, lol. Excellent description!

Hope you and yours are well. Ahhhhh, cooler here and a nice sleeping night ;)


you know your close when you hear that sound during/just before a strike .. have heard that sound 3 times during my life .. the very first time the hair on my arms stood out .. it hit a big maple tree just 5 feet out side my 2nd story bedroom window when I was a kid .. my mother said ball lightning went through the house from one end to the other on the first floor .. actually broke the glass in a storm window at the same time from the sound concussion I think ..

remember my dad and a neighbor going up in the attic to see if it had struck it .. was a weird smell to the air which I later found out to be the smell of ozone ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
185. juslivn
2:22 AM GMT on June 05, 2014
Bacon frying sound, lol. Excellent description!

Hope you and yours are well. Ahhhhh, cooler here and a nice sleeping night ;)
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 85 Comments: 10065
184. whitewabit
11:16 PM GMT on June 04, 2014
strong upper level winds in the northern gulf should keep 90L from becoming anything more then heavy thunder storms ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
183. whitewabit
11:11 PM GMT on June 04, 2014


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A complex low pressure area centered over the southern Bay of
Campeche is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over a
large portion of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and southeastern
Mexico. Strong upper-level winds will likely inhibit significant
development of this system during the next couple of days before it
moves inland over eastern Mexico by Saturday. However, this
disturbance has the potential to produce extremely heavy rains and
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides during the next few days
over portions of southeastern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Blake
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
182. whitewabit
10:57 PM GMT on June 04, 2014
Quoting 181. WeatherWise:

Hi Whitewabbit, Thanks for stopping by to check out my bluebird babies. About 1:30 pm, We had heavy rains, winds and one HUGE thunder lightning thunder bolt that scared me as I had just gotten in from the car. I was hung in the car for quite awhile as the rainsand winds were so heavy pouring down. It was very sharp and very close like I felt pain in my shoulder from jumping in such surprise. I got in the house pretty fast. There are still some storms brewing in the area but think they will go north of us this time.


WW .. you can really throw your back out when thunder startles you like that .. we were lucky and didn't have any strike that were very close but watched a storm pass to my south that it was quite a light show ..

last week we had a strike in the field across the road from my house .. was close enough to hear the bacon frying sound .. that one was way too close ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
181. WeatherWise
10:38 PM GMT on June 04, 2014
Hi Whitewabbit, Thanks for stopping by to check out my bluebird babies. About 1:30 pm, We had heavy rains, winds and one HUGE thunder lightning thunder bolt that scared me as I had just gotten in from the car. I was hung in the car for quite awhile as the rainsand winds were so heavy pouring down. It was very sharp and very close like I felt pain in my shoulder from jumping in such surprise. I got in the house pretty fast. There are still some storms brewing in the area but think they will go north of us this time.
Member Since: February 28, 2003 Posts: 37 Comments: 1175
180. whitewabit
9:51 PM GMT on June 04, 2014
Quoting 179. HadesGodWyvern:

only got a .25 of an inch here.

got lucky with missing the heavy rains and the strong storm system.


we just got a really good steady rain for about 4 hours .. didn't have any wind with the storms we had but the temperature had cooled off here before the storms got this far east so that helped the most ..

looked like you were getting more rain then that .. but radar was showing me getting 1.5 iches and I got .94 .. officially at the airport they got 1.54 inches total ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
179. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:10 PM GMT on June 04, 2014
only got a .25 of an inch here.

got lucky with missing the heavy rains and the strong storm system.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45214
178. whitewabit
5:33 PM GMT on June 04, 2014
Quoting 177. LakeWorthFinn:

Phew... good :)


I agree .. had a good light show with the lightning between 1 and 4 am .. almost constant lightning somewhere that you could see .. lots of cloud lightning also .. but many cloud to ground strikes .. a couple of fires because of it ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
177. LakeWorthFinn
4:35 PM GMT on June 04, 2014
Phew... good :)
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7295
176. whitewabit
3:45 PM GMT on June 04, 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A stationary trough of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Strong
upper-level winds will likely inhibit significant development of
this system. However, this disturbance has the potential to
produce locally heavy rains during the next few days over
portions of southeastern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Brown
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
175. whitewabit
3:14 PM GMT on June 04, 2014
was a good rain last night .. starting to spit a little drizzling rain right now but don't expect much accumulation from it today ..

emptied .94 inches from the rain gauge this morning ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
174. whitewabit
12:46 PM GMT on June 04, 2014
think most if not all of the precipitation has passed to the east southeast ..

shouldn't have any rain until later today with chances of pop-up type showers ..

Air is cool this morning and smells fresh from the overnight rains !! Love the smell !!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
173. whitewabit
12:42 PM GMT on June 04, 2014

Today

Showers and thunderstorms in the morning...then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

Tonight

Partly cloudy. Cooler. Lows in the mid 50s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
172. whitewabit
12:41 PM GMT on June 04, 2014
Quoting 171. Skyepony:

It was further south. Glad it weakened to a nice rain event for you:)


had a good storm but had calmed down since we got the brunt of it in the early am and not the heat of the day ..

shouldn't ramp up as bad today as the temperatures will be cooler .. our high is only expected to be in the mid 70's instead of the high 80's we have had for the past week !!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
171. Skyepony (Mod)
12:29 PM GMT on June 04, 2014
It was further south. Glad it weakened to a nice rain event for you:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37810
170. whitewabit
12:20 PM GMT on June 04, 2014
Quoting 169. LakeWorthFinn:

Checking on you... May your rain wish come true with no tornadoes !


hello Finn !! .. nothing too bad so far .. a good rain over night .. did have a lot of thunder and lightning during the storm around 4 am ..

haven't checked the rain gauge yet ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
169. LakeWorthFinn
6:51 AM GMT on June 04, 2014
Checking on you... May your rain wish come true with no tornadoes !
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7295
168. whitewabit
4:50 AM GMT on June 04, 2014
Started raining around 11pm .. nothing strong yet just a nice steady rain .. we are several inches behind again for yearly precipitation .. so we are hoping to get an inch or more .. would be especially nice to get it as a gentle rain like its doing now .. even 2-3 inches like this would be welcomed !!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
167. whitewabit
7:20 PM GMT on June 03, 2014
Quoting 165. Ylee:

The low humidity should keep the chance for severe lower in your area, don't you think?


Ylee .. it will for this afternoon .. but I expect the air to juice up later this evening .. giving us a chance of severe after midnight till mid morning Wednesday ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
166. whitewabit
7:18 PM GMT on June 03, 2014
Today

Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. West winds 5 to 10 mph.

Tonight

Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening... then showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Locally heavy rainfall possible after midnight. Lows in the mid 60s. Light south winds increasing to east 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
165. Ylee
7:15 PM GMT on June 03, 2014
The low humidity should keep the chance for severe lower in your area, don't you think?
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 93 Comments: 15536
164. whitewabit
7:03 PM GMT on June 03, 2014


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN/SOUTHERN IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI AND
WESTERN ILLINOIS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY/MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF NEBRASKA THROUGH IOWA...NORTHERN
MISSOURI...AND INTO ILLINOIS. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS...VERY LARGE
HAIL...AND A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED.

...SYNOPSIS...
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 70KT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL CREST A
STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AND PRODUCE MODEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO
SPURRING LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT SITUATED
FROM NEB PANHANDLE ESEWD TO NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER.

A BROAD ZONE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN WY/CO WILL CONSOLIDATE
INTO LEE-CYCLONE AND TRACK TO WRN NEB BY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
MESO-LOWS/FRONTAL WAVES MAY FORM AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE WARM
FRONT...AIDED BY LATENT HEATING/DEEP CONVECTION...INTO LATE EVENING.
SOUTH OF THE LOW/WARM FRONT...A DRYLINE/THERMAL TROUGH WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EXTEND FROM WRN NEB SSWWD
THROUGH WRN KS TO FAR ERN NM.

IN THE EAST...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR
JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE EAST FROM ERN GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND.

...SD/NEB TO IA/MO THROUGH LATE EVENING...
INTENSE STORMS POSING PRIMARILY A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL ARE ALREADY
UNDERWAY NORTH OF SFC WARM FRONT AND NEAR THE SD/NE BORDER THIS
MORNING /REF WW 206/. THIS CONVECTION WAS LIKELY ROOTED ABOVE THE
850MB LEVEL IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEPENING MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. EXPECT THESE ELEVATED STORMS
TO PERSIST GIVEN MASS AND MOISTURE FLUXES NOW UNDERWAY IN RESPONSE
TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DIABATIC PROCESSES.

BY MID-AFTERNOON...ELEVATED STORMS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO... 1) A
REINFORCEMENT OF THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM
FRONT...AND 2) A DEEPENING COLD POOL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT.
MODEST TO LOCALLY STRONG WARM SECTOR SFC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
WEAKENING INHIBITION AND AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO
BECOME ROOTED IN A VERY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE FRONT BY
LATE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITHIN
THE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME OVER PARTS OF SD/NEB.

A FEW MODELS SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED WARM SECTOR DISCRETE STORMS
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NEB. ANY DISCRETE
STORMS INITIATING NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIST IN AN IDEAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH EFFECTIVE SRH IN EXCESS OF
200 M2/S2 AND RELATIVELY LOW LFC. AWAY FROM THE FRONT AND NEAR THE
DRYLINE...HEATING AND DEEPER MIXING MAY OFFSET THE TORNADO POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT AND RESULT IN MORE OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STORMS WITH HIGH WIND
AND VERY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.

WHILE ABOVE SCENARIO HAS LOW TO MODEST CONFIDENCE...GREATER
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE CONTINUATION AND GRADUAL UPSCALE GROWTH OF
ONGOING CONVECTION INTO AN COMPLEX OF EVEN MORE INTENSE
STORMS...INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...MOVING ESEWD TO ERN NEB AND
THEN TO SRN IA/NRN MO THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. THIS CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP INTO AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY /SBCAPE TO 3000-4000 J
PER KG/ COINCIDENT WITH INTENSIFICATION OF A WLY 60-70KT MID-LEVEL
JET. BOTH PARALLEL ARW/NMMB HIRES WINDOWS DEPICT THIS SCENARIO QUITE
WELL BUT STILL OFFER DIFFERING OUTCOMES IN TIME/INTENSITY AND
PLACEMENT OF GREATEST HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.

THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN
DERECHO EVOLUTION ACROSS NEB/IA/MO AREA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.
EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND A COUPLE OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES IN THESE AREAS.
IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THIS WIDESPREAD SEVERE WIND
SCENARIO...A HIGH RISK AREA MAY BE ADDED IN THE AFTERNOON SWODY1
UPDATE.

...ACROSS THE MS RIVER TO IL/IND BEFORE DAYBREAK WED...
MCS/DERECHO SHOULD MAINTAIN DAMAGING WIND AND SOME HAIL POTENTIAL
EAST ACROSS THE MS RIVER AND INTO IL/IND...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
CDT. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION MAY ACT TO OFFSET MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WIND THREAT WITH TIME...UPSCALE STORM ORGANIZATION AND
CONTINUING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS AT LEAST MODEST
SEVERE WIND PROBABILITIES/SLGT RISK AREA IS WARRANTED AS FAR EAST AS
CENTRAL IND THROUGH DAYBREAK WED.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY NEWD TO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...
DIURNAL HEATING OF MIDDLE 60S-LOWER 70S PRE-FRONTAL SFC
DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT POCKETS OF MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY -- I.E. IN THE WAKE OF A BAND OF WEAK H85-H7 WARM
ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION CROSSING THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE WEAK...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ASCENT WILL BE
LOCALLY AUGMENTED BY DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING-INDUCED BAROCLINICITY
AHEAD OF THE ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION -- I.E. ACROSS NRN NY TO THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED BUOYANCY AND 30-40 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW...SPORADIC
INSTANCES OF DMGG WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH CONVECTION PRIMARILY ORGANIZED IN MULTICELL CLUSTERS.

..CARBIN/COHEN/KERR.. 06/03/2014
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
163. whitewabit
5:16 PM GMT on June 03, 2014
Not as humid today with the humidity at 41% and the dew point in the low 50º ..

storms will roll in later the afternoon and evening through early Wednesday morning ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
162. whitewabit
7:43 AM GMT on June 03, 2014
Quoting 160. HadesGodWyvern:

about 60 miles west of my area is in the moderate risk threat tomorrow night/Wednesday morning.


think you are going to need to be watching like me !! just too close to the main area .. should know by 2 or 3 what is going to happen and in what area is developing ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
161. whitewabit
7:41 AM GMT on June 03, 2014
Quoting 159. Skyepony:

I think the worst will stay just north of you. Set up doesn't look good at all though.


the worse will be to the west northern Kansas and Nebraska I think and will move to the east over me in the evening early morning Wednesday
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
160. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
5:06 AM GMT on June 03, 2014
about 60 miles west of my area is in the moderate risk threat tomorrow night/Wednesday morning.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45214
159. Skyepony (Mod)
4:15 AM GMT on June 03, 2014
I think the worst will stay just north of you. Set up doesn't look good at all though.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37810
158. whitewabit
3:56 AM GMT on June 03, 2014
Quoting 157. LakeWorthFinn:

3 white wabits to {{{Big Wabit}}}

Hopefully no severe weather for you tomorrow and the day after... and come to think of it, never again...

Wishing you a wonderful summer! Good to have you here to help us stay safe :)


Hey Finn !! good to here from you .. busy as always ..

good chance of severe in a large area in the afternoon .. hope it doesn't pan out but not liking the set up !!

No definitely don't need any severe here .. my community is still in a recovery mode ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
157. LakeWorthFinn
3:37 AM GMT on June 03, 2014
3 white wabits to {{{Big Wabit}}}

Hopefully no severe weather for you tomorrow and the day after... and come to think of it, never again...

Wishing you a wonderful summer! Good to have you here to help us stay safe :)
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7295
156. whitewabit
9:27 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
models are hinting at a low developing in the Bay of Campeche and developing into a invest .. will have wait and see but more models are coming up with some kind of development .. upper level winds in the northern half of the gulf blowing in a southeasterly direction should hamper what ever develops and it is expected to move westward into Mexico ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
155. whitewabit
8:59 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
93E spun up very quickly ..

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022014
200 PM PDT MON JUN 02 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 94.1W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ EASTWARD TO THE
MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ TO MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6
KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM BY TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...GIVEN ITS SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION...TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO-E IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AS MUCH AS 10 TO 20 INCHES
OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 30 INCHES LIKELY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND CHIAPAS. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
154. whitewabit
6:40 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Quoting 153. Ylee:

We're stil in the saturated humidity area, wab! Had a popup Tstorm yeasterday that dropped over an inch of rain, with some bonus hail, in about an hour!

Hope the severe stuff stays away!


So are we .. shower yesterday too .. 10 minutes got ,24 inches .. came down really hard .. but only a short one .. might get interesting tomorrow !!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
153. Ylee
6:18 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
We're stil in the saturated humidity area, wab! Had a popup Tstorm yeasterday that dropped over an inch of rain, with some bonus hail, in about an hour!

Hope the severe stuff stays away!
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 93 Comments: 15536

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Retired weather junkie, currently living in Central Illinois. worst hurricane I've been through was Camille, in Biloxi, Ms. A Blog Moderator .

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