Sandy

By: whitewabit , 5:41 PM GMT on October 20, 2012

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A little about my self -

I joined weather Underground in August of 2005 right after they opened the blogging feature. I have been a weather hobbyist since the middle 60's when I lived on the west coast of Florida, north of the Tampa Bay area. I currently live in a small community in central Illinois.

I have been through numerous Hurricanes during my life time. The worse being Hurricane Camille in August 17,1969, A Cat 5, where the eye passed over the location I was at. That being Biloxi, Ms when I was in the USAF stationed at Keesler AFB.













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Wabits 2012 Hurricane Forecast Prediction

Total Storms . 15
Hurricanes .... 8
Intense ....... 4

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Seems the Caribbean is heating up ..


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46. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
10:13 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
whitewabit has created a new entry.
45. whitewabit
6:48 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK
HARBOR...
...WINDS FORECAST TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT LANDFALL...

RE-TRANSMITTED

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 71.9W
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM S OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.
THIS INCLUDES THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE
BAY...AND THE COASTS OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW
JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND
RHODE ISLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO
MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND
SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN
ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION
WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM...AND IN FACT
A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PROCESS. SANDY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING INLAND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
520 MILES...835 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION AT CAPE HATTERAS RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH...80 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 62
MPH...100 KM/H. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE NOW REACHED THE
MOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER
TODAY...AND REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...BY LATE MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...

NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SNOWFALL..SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...
WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES LATER TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31247
44. whitewabit
6:27 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Sandi .. Yes it does look bad .. alot of people under the storm warnings ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31247
43. sandiquiz
8:14 AM GMT on October 28, 2012
Hi Wabit,
I hope my storm is not going to cause you to much trouble, although forecasters here are talking about it .... so I know it is going to be bad, they never mention your storms unless they are bad:-(

All take care - and I am sorry!
Member Since: October 29, 2005 Posts: 289 Comments: 25999
42. whitewabit
12:08 AM GMT on October 28, 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE SANDY IS CENTERED NEAR 30.5N 75.7W AT 28/0000 UTC
ABOUT 287 NM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...OR ABOUT 308
NM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MOVING NE AT 11 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE STORM CENTER FROM
30N-32N BETWEEN 75W-77W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
HAS ALSO SPREAD WESTWARD TO 83W IMPACTING COASTAL AREAS FROM N
FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA. AN OUTER BAND WELL TO THE EAST IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
23N-29N BETWEEN 59W-65W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N41W TO 9N42W STAYING MAINLY
QUASI-STATIONARY. THE WAVE STILL ALIGNS WITH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THAT IS
BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. DUE TO ITS
QUASI-STATIONARY NATURE...THE WAVE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
SHORTLY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN
39W-42W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SENEGAL AT 13N17W TO 9N20W TO 8N23W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 8N23W
AND CONTINUES TO 8N39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-8N BETWEEN 33W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AT 30N84W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 24N90W TO 23N94W TO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 19N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE N OF THE
FRONT. A GALE WARNING IS OVER THE W GULF FROM 22N-26N W OF 95W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
PRODUCING 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
OVERCAST OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA E OF 84W DUE TO THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF HURRICANE SANDY...WHILE THE SE GULF HAS FAIR
WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
GULF...EXCEPT OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD 10-20 KT CYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
DUE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF SANDY. WINDS ARE STRONGEST S OF CUBA.
THE TRADEWINDS ARE THUS COMPLETELY DISRUPTED. AN OUTER RAINBAND
IS ALSO IMPACTING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SHOWERS S OF
PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N
COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE SANDY IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. SEE
ABOVE. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS HOWEVER IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO
DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...FOR PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...AND FOR
BERMUDA. ELSEWHERE... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AT 31N35W TO 26N40W TO 26N48W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES TO 28N57W. A WARM FROM CONTINUES TO N OF SANDY AT
33N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE WARM FRONT
FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 60W-66W. A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N22W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW
TO 27N27W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-32N
BETWEEN 23W-28W. A 1015 MB HIGH IS ALSO OVER THE E ATLANTIC AT
22N28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31247
41. whitewabit
5:45 PM GMT on October 27, 2012



BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...SANDY SLOWLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY NEAR THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 76.0W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM NNE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...GALE...STORM AND HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST. OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS SANDY HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...
HOWEVER...A LONGER-TERM MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15
KM/H. A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS
FORECAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF SANDY
WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS
MORNING AND WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 450
MILES...725 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN GREAT ABACO AND
GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA IN THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

FL EAST COAST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...1 TO 2 FT
NC SOUTH OF SURF CITY...1 TO 3 FT
NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBERMARLE SNDS...3 TO 5 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 2 FT
OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND DELAWARE BAY...4 TO 8 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES BY SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31247
40. whitewabit
5:33 PM GMT on October 27, 2012
HH .. no not sleeping ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31247
39. HateHurricanes
4:15 PM GMT on October 27, 2012
Are you sleeping, Wabit?

HH
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3080
38. whitewabit
5:26 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:
Cooling down here. 69.6F


LOL .. already cooled down up here .. 37 degrees ...
calling for a hard freeze to night and the next 3 days ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31247
37. Skyepony (Mod)
5:22 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
Cooling down here. 69.6ºF
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37387
36. whitewabit
11:54 PM GMT on October 26, 2012
Winds down a little on this pass ..

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 23:27Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2012
Storm Name: Sandy (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 12
A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 22:50:05Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°21'N 77°11'W (27.35N 77.1833W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 158 miles (255 km) to the N (4°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 51 nautical miles (59 statute miles) to the N (356°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 90° at 48kts (From the E at ~ 55.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 88 nautical miles (101 statute miles) to the N (358°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 966mb (28.53 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 6°C (43°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,656m (11,995ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,658m (12,001ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb (if vortex is newer than about mid 90's; see note for more), 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
O. Fix Determined By / Fix Level (Undecoded): 1 / 2 nm
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 12,000 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 52 KT S QUAD 22:59:18Z
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31247
35. whitewabit
11:30 PM GMT on October 26, 2012
Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 22:12Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2012
Storm Name: Sandy (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 21:31:14Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°23'N 77°11'W (27.3833N 77.1833W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 161 miles (258 km) to the N (3°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 57kts (~ 65.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 68 nautical miles (78 statute miles) to the WNW (291°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 25° at 58kts (From the NNE at ~ 66.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 123 nautical miles (142 statute miles) to the WNW (283°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 972mb (28.70 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,662m (12,014ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,675m (12,057ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb (if vortex is newer than about mid 90's; see note for more), 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
O. Fix Determined By / Fix Level (Undecoded): 1 / 4 nm
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) in the west quadrant at 21:00:12Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) in the east quadrant at 21:49:25Z
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31247
34. whitewabit
11:14 PM GMT on October 26, 2012
SANDY



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND A GENERAL NORTHWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON
SATURDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM. A NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SETTLEMENT POINT ON
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49
MPH...80 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 63 MPH...102 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN GREAT ABACO AND
GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN THE CAROLINAS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES..ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

BAHAMAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT
NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
REMAINDER OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SE VIRGINIA INCLUDING LOWER
CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED PERIODS
OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31247
33. whitewabit
6:53 PM GMT on October 26, 2012
sunny today but nippy with the temp of 46 degrees ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31247
32. whitewabit
6:45 PM GMT on October 26, 2012
Finn .. Yes hope that people along the east coast will take Sandy serious .. she is a very dangerous storm ..

31 deaths have been attributed to Sandy so far ...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31247
31. LakeWorthFinn
9:00 AM GMT on October 26, 2012
LOL on the retired pic... a good one!

Sandy means business, nasty gusts here every now and then. Hope people are prepared up North for a Howling Halloween.
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7279
30. whitewabit
6:55 PM GMT on October 25, 2012
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31247
29. whitewabit
6:54 PM GMT on October 25, 2012
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/18L/imager y/vis-animated.gif


BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...CENTER OF SANDY MOVING BETWEEN LONG ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 75.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM E OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF ELEUTHERA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE RAGGED ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND MOVE NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON
FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE BAHAMAS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. ELEUTHERA IN THE BAHAMAS RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 39 MPH...63 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATER
TODAY AND SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER EASTERN CUBA THIS AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 2 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN CUBA AND JAMAICA THIS
AFTERNOON.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31247
28. whitewabit
6:48 PM GMT on October 25, 2012
Sandi .. Your name sake storm may be a hum dinger as they use to say ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31247
27. sandiquiz
6:17 AM GMT on October 25, 2012
Hi Wabit,

Looks like my namesake could cause some problems! I do hope she behaves and heads out to sea, and not get pulled onto the east coast.

Getting colder here - the first real frosts of the winter are due Friday thro Sunday :-(
Member Since: October 29, 2005 Posts: 289 Comments: 25999
26. whitewabit
5:03 AM GMT on October 25, 2012
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...EYE OF SANDY APPROACHING THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...
...COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 76.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NNE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
RAGGED ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...SOUTHEASTERN
INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...
AND MAYAGUANA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE RAGGED ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO SEBASTIAN INLET
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULS MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EMERGE FROM THE NORTH
COAST OF CUBA ON THURSDAY...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS FALLING
RAPIDLY...AND SANDY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL ON THE CUBAN COAST. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE CENTER
CROSSES CUBA. HOWEVER...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM. GUANTANAMO BAY CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 58 MPH...93 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF
JAMAICA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND SHOULD SPREAD OVER EASTERN CUBA
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO
SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

JAMAICA...1 TO 3 FT
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...4 TO 7 FT
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 2 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31247
25. whitewabit
4:18 AM GMT on October 25, 2012



Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 03:13Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2012
Storm Name: Sandy (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 2:35:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°13'N 76°16'W (19.2167N 76.2667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 63 miles (101 km) to the SSW (207°) from Santiago de Cuba, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,726m (8,944ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 81kts (~ 93.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SW (226°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 315° at 92kts (From the NW at ~ 105.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the SW (226°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 957mb (28.26 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 102kts (~ 117.4mph) in the southeast quadrant at 2:45:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 102kts (~ 117.4mph) in the southeast quadrant at 2:45:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 700mb
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31247
24. whitewabit
1:47 AM GMT on October 25, 2012


Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 00:26Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2012
Storm Name: Sandy (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 0:10:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°48'N 76°28'W (18.8N 76.4667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 60 miles (96 km) to the NNE (21°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,778m (9,114ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 79kts (~ 90.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the WNW (300°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 40° at 81kts (From the NE at ~ 93.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the WNW (300°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 964mb (28.47 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southeast
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 90° to 270° (E to W)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Wind Outbound: 96kts (~ 110.5mph) in the southeast quadrant at 0:15:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 96kts (~ 110.5mph) in the southeast quadrant at 0:15:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 700mb
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 15°C (59°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the WNW (298°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING NW EYEWALL INBOUND
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31247
22. whitewabit
10:25 PM GMT on October 24, 2012
Finn .. Halloween Picture .. I don't understand .. this is how I look now that I've retired ...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31247
21. LakeWorthFinn
8:10 PM GMT on October 24, 2012
You insipred me to get my halloween pic up :) It's a photo of the first pumpkin I ever carved, and my first Halloween celebration too, we don't have it in Finland.

Nothing here yet from Sandy.
Have a great evening!
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7279
20. whitewabit
6:22 PM GMT on October 24, 2012
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...SANDY APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 76.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO OCEAN
REEF
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA....IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THE GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER EASTERN JAMAICA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...MOVE OVER EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...AND MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE SANDY MOVES OVER JAMAICA OR EASTERN CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. KINGSTON JAMAICA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND
OF 32 MPH...52 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 51 MPH...82 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.
KINGSTON JAMAICA RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 982 MB...29.00
INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EASTERN CUBA BY
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA BY FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COAST OF JAMAICA. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. A
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE BAHAMAS WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31247
19. whitewabit
6:21 PM GMT on October 24, 2012
Finn .. you will be having rain and winds for the next several days ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31247
18. whitewabit
6:21 PM GMT on October 24, 2012
Ylee .. We got .3 inches of rain early that morning ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31247
17. LakeWorthFinn
6:41 AM GMT on October 24, 2012
LOLOLOL on the avatar!

A biit windy and rainy here in SEFL, but nothing out of the ordinary.

Maybe I should put my Halloween avatar on for Halloween ;-)
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7279
16. Ylee
1:37 AM GMT on October 24, 2012
Wab, did you get any rain up there today? I saw some scattered stuff north of here earlier today!
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 92 Comments: 15355
15. whitewabit
9:58 PM GMT on October 23, 2012
Sandy

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31247
14. whitewabit
9:57 PM GMT on October 23, 2012
Models moving Sandy to the west a bit ...

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 77.6W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...
BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND
NEW PROVIDENCE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NEAR OR OVER EASTERN CUBA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE BY THE TIME
IT NEARS JAMAICA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH JAMAICA
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF
HAITI ON WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN
CUBA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON
THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COAST OF JAMAICA. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31247
13. whitewabit
8:35 PM GMT on October 23, 2012
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

...SANDY CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 77.6W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HAITI HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTHWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA
ON WEDNESDAY...AND APPROACH EASTERN CUBA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
SANDY IS FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT APPROACHES JAMAICA ON
WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31247
12. whitewabit
9:39 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST. SANDY IS
NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA ON
WEDNESDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND SANDY COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH WHEN IT APPROACHES JAMAICA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31247
11. whitewabit
6:12 PM GMT on October 22, 2012
Hey Sandi and Skye ..

Cloudy with occasional rain showers today .. 64 degrees ...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31247
10. Skyepony (Mod)
5:42 AM GMT on October 22, 2012
sandi~ Good to see the British climatologists discussing it. That anomaly is unreal.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37387
9. Skyepony (Mod)
5:40 AM GMT on October 22, 2012
I'm thinking consistency & the variability play of ENSO & such is being left to be seen. That map is scarey to me & like an elephant in the room when it comes to discussing the summer or maybe people didn't notice...no studies I've seen yet.


Total lightweight..I didn't just make it through that summer gleefully without thinning the blood a bit:) About time for some long sleeves.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37387
8. sandiquiz
5:38 AM GMT on October 22, 2012
Morning Skye and Wabit

73 degrees? Oh boy, I don't think we achieved that on more than a dozen occasions this last summer!

Thanks for the info Skye. The shrinking of the ice is one of the ideas the British climatologists are discussing for our poor summer, and as you rightly said - it isn't going to get better anytime soon, so I better buy a boat!
Member Since: October 29, 2005 Posts: 289 Comments: 25999
7. whitewabit
5:29 AM GMT on October 22, 2012
LOL .. 73 and you were cold and went inside !!! light weight .. {:-)
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31247
6. whitewabit
5:27 AM GMT on October 22, 2012
Skye .. I have been watching that too .. Will be interesting to see if it sets up the same way or gets better/worse next year .. there will be even less sea ice next year if the loss continues as it has .. so Greenland or the North Pole will be the cool area ...

the jet stream was much further south then previous years having normal rainfall
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31247
5. Skyepony (Mod)
5:15 AM GMT on October 22, 2012
Weather was so nice I lived outside a speell. Even took to the hammock til I got cold..yep 73ºF drove me back inside.

As for Sandi~ I've been watching the UK weather & such having to do with this the last few months. With so much sea ice gone I think the cold spot stayed more over Greenland this summer, instead of wobbled around spreading the rain. With the high anchored, lows circled it in the same areas. I saw research about the atmospheric rivers but I think they missed the big picture. Til Greenland goes I think the weather we had this last summer may be the new norm for a while. Very few are getting this I'm afraid. Generated the anomaly 6-1 through a few days ago..strong as it has been..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37387
4. whitewabit
7:48 PM GMT on October 21, 2012
Beautiful sunny day .. temp 65 degrees and wind 5 to 10 from the south ... Going up into the 70's tomorrow ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31247
3. whitewabit
6:14 PM GMT on October 21, 2012
Going to get a bit of a warm up this next week with high for 2 days going up to 77 degrees ...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31247
2. whitewabit
6:12 PM GMT on October 21, 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY WELL
SOUTH OF JAMAICA. HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE ARE LIKELY TO
SPREAD OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND EASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

2. A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING A
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 850 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31247
1. whitewabit
5:44 PM GMT on October 20, 2012
From Last blog :

Quoting sandiquiz:
Morning Wabit - sitting at the big computer, the first time since the op, so I feel I am on the mend!
Just posted a new blog about our miserable summer, with a graph I found which is interesting, to say the least.

Have a safe, and happy, weekend :)



Just read your new blog .. didn't really realize the extent of the rain you have had this year ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31247

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Retired weather junkie, currently living in Central Illinois. worst hurricane I've been through was Camille, in Biloxi, Ms. A Blog Moderator .

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Brooksville, FL
Elevation: 62 ft
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Humidity: 80%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 11:32 AM EDT on July 28, 2014
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Updated: 10:18 AM CDT on July 28, 2014

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