Chance of Severe Weather

By: whitewabit , 6:51 PM GMT on October 07, 2012

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THIS SITE Does NOT reflect the official forecasts of the National Hurricane Center, when making decisions, please heed the advisories and evacuation statements of your local National Weather Service Office and the National Hurricane Center



A little about my self -

I joined weather Underground in August of 2005 right after they opened the blogging feature. I have been a weather hobbyist since the middle 60's when I lived on the west coast of Florida, north of the Tampa Bay area. I currently live in a small community in central Illinois.

I have been through numerous Hurricanes during my life time. The worse being Hurricane Camille in August 17,1969, A Cat 5, where the eye passed over the location I was at. That being Biloxi, Ms when I was in the USAF stationed at Keesler AFB.













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Wabits 2012 Hurricane Forecast Prediction

Total Storms . 15
Hurricanes .... 8
Intense ....... 4

Thank You for visiting my blog !

Possible Severe Weather this weekend :

VALID 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
UNCERTAINTIES PERSIST DUE TO LINGERING SPREAD AMONG MODELS AND MODEL
ENSEMBLES CONCERNING THE NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF A SIGNIFICANT
CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS MOST PROBABLE THAT
INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR AND FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION WILL BECOME MOST SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SUB-1000 MB SURFACE CYCLONE ON
SATURDAY...AS IT MIGRATES ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. EVEN WITH ONLY WEAK DESTABILIZATION...THE
ENVIRONMENT NEAR A 70-90 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET STREAK AND
50-70 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A
SUBSTANTIVE REGIONAL SEVERE CONVECTIVE EVENT WITH DAMAGING WIND AND
PERHAPS TORNADOES.



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25. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:36 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
whitewabit has created a new entry.
24. whitewabit
8:51 PM GMT on October 12, 2012
Skye .. I hope so too but the high Saturday is suppose to be 77-78 degrees and with that cold front diving down it all plays out for severe somewhere ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31279
23. Skyepony (Mod)
8:45 PM GMT on October 12, 2012
Chilly up there. Hope that turns out to be just rain.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37452
22. whitewabit
8:41 PM GMT on October 12, 2012
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A BROAD PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL U.S....

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OUT OF
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH
ACCOMPANYING FASTER FLOW FIELD ALSO SPREADING EWD WITH TIME.
MEANWHILE...RIDGING ALOFT IS PROGGED EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH --
AFFECTING BOTH THE SWRN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S. DURING THE
PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE PLAINS WITH
TIME AS THE UPPER SYSTEM ADVANCES...TRAILING FROM A SOMEWHAT
ILL-DEFINED LOW EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
REGION THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS LOW/FRONT WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.

...THE CENTRAL CONUS...
A COMPLEX SCENARIO CONTINUES TO EVOLVE FOR THE DAY 2 PERIOD...WITH
SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM PROGRESSION --
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS -- COMBINING WITH
QUESTIONS REGARDING BOUNDARY LAYER EVOLUTION TO RESULT IN FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING BOTH LOCATION AND DEGREE OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM PARTS OF W TX NEWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION EARLY.
THIS PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER -- PARTICULARLY FROM THE MID MO
VALLEY REGION NEWD -- MAY HINDER APPRECIABLE AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS -- DESPITE A FAVORABLE KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT...DEGREE OF SURFACE-BASED SEVERE RISK REMAINS IN
QUESTION...SUPPORTING A SWWD SHIFT IN SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY
THIS FORECAST.

WHILE ONGOING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY AFFECT MORE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA AS WELL...HINTS OF POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DESTABILIZATION BEHIND AN INITIAL BAND OF CONVECTION ARE EVIDENT --
PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE HIGHER THETA-E BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED IN
THIS AREA. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...AND A BACKGROUND WIND FIELD
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS...AN AFTERNOON/EVENING
INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT FROM NWRN MO/ERN KS SWWD INTO WRN N TX
REMAINS POSSIBLE. WHILE DETAILS REGARDING POTENTIAL STORM MODE
ACROSS THIS REGION ARE UNCERTAIN...THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES EXISTS.

FARTHER NE...LIKELIHOOD FOR A MORE MOIST ADIABATIC LOWER AND MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE ALONG WITH A MORE VEERED/SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FIELD
SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL IN
THIS REGION.

AS CONVECTION SHIFTS EWD OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSING
SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM...EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SEVERE THREAT
CORRESPONDING TO THE DIURNALLY STABILIZING AIRMASS -- PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA.

..GOSS.. 10/12/2012
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31279
21. whitewabit
3:48 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Finn .. a bushel is a unit of measurement to weigh or measure dry grains ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31279
20. whitewabit
3:47 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
HGW .. thanks for explaining that ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31279
19. whitewabit
3:46 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Ylee .. did you get a frost ???
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31279
18. whitewabit
3:46 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Fox .. yes its that time of year ...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31279
17. LakeWorthFinn
9:35 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
Wab, what's a "bushel"?
Stay safe up there and hopefully warm :)
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7281
16. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:16 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
PAGASA does not always use the two names in their bulletins.

the gale warning say the international typhoon name. example Gale Warning

the tropical cyclone bulletins mention the assigned named from PAGASA and the international name in parentheses only in one line then the assigned name is only used for the rest of the bulletin for some reason.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44881
15. Ylee
7:37 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
All we got was clouds; It was 50 at 7AM, so far it's only made it up to 59!

A chance of a freeze here tonight!
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 92 Comments: 15383
14. Beachfoxx
7:29 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
Brrrrrr! Seems too early to be that cold!!!
Quoting whitewabit:
Got .3 inches of ran overnight .. before it cleared and cooled down to 30 degrees but the feel like temp was in the 20's this morning with the wind .. only up to 50 so far today ..
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29383
13. whitewabit
5:34 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
Got .3 inches of ran overnight .. before it cleared and cooled down to 30 degrees but the feel like temp was in the 20's this morning with the wind .. only up to 50 so far today ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31279
12. whitewabit
9:11 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
According to our local paper, The Peoria Journal Star, Peoria County farmers have had yields between 20 and 200 bushel an acre ..

Thats a enormous difference from one field to another.. pity the poor farmers with the 20 bushel yield ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31279
11. whitewabit
3:46 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
97L is starting its move to the north this morning ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31279
10. whitewabit
3:19 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Ylee .. didn't think you would get frost this go around..

Hope you have planted the pecan trees where they have plenty of room .. they will get quite large .. I planted 3 trees, with 2 of them starting to produce now and one that hasn't produced a nut yet ...

Not sure if there are male/female trees or not ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31279
9. Ylee
9:57 AM GMT on October 09, 2012
Wab, I think the frosts will have missed us this go-around, as Sunday night we had cloud cover from a system to the south, and tonight it has stubbornly clung to 40!

Pecans are the best! We just set a couple of young trees this year, and hope to maybe start to get some in about 10 years! Wish I'd thought of that ten years ago, lol!
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 92 Comments: 15383
8. whitewabit
12:48 AM GMT on October 09, 2012
Lower Cal .. that would be a treat having tomatoes all year long ..

We covered the plants but the 29 degrees for three night in a row was just too much for them..

My pecan trees are just now starting to drop their nuts. This is only the 2nd year we have had a crop as the trees are only 15 years old and starting to mature..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31279
7. LowerCal
11:00 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
Tough tomato gardening there.

We'll have a plot in the community garden patch next weekend. With a little luck here I think it's possible have tomatoes year round in years without a hard frost or extended stretches of overcast. In my first experiment with tomato growing two years ago I was terminated by consecutive weeks without sun right around the winter solstice. I'll try my luck with starting tomatoes in October this year.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9158
6. whitewabit
6:50 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
Well my tomato plants struggle against mother nature was lost .. after three nights of temps below freezing the plants have started wilting .. picked a little over a half a bushel .. will wrap them in newspapers and hopefully will have fresh tomatoes for Thanksgiving ...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31279
5. whitewabit
4:24 AM GMT on October 08, 2012
... Record cold high temperature set at Lincoln on Saturday...

The high temperature at Lincoln on Saturday was only 49 degrees.
This is the coldest high temperature on record for October
6... breaking the old record of 53 degrees which was set in 1952.

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31279
4. whitewabit
4:09 AM GMT on October 08, 2012
36 degrees here at 11pm .. Brrrrr ...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31279
3. whitewabit
4:09 AM GMT on October 08, 2012
Bug .. LOL .. YES we are getting old but we are doing it gracefully !! Thats what I tell the kids ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31279
2. palmettobug53
7:01 PM GMT on October 07, 2012
Good gosh! I was first? LOL
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 232 Comments: 24994
1. palmettobug53
7:01 PM GMT on October 07, 2012
Hi, wab.

Getting in a little warmth before the frigid temps settle in permanently?

We're supposed to drop down to 59 tonigh, which I think is the coolest nighttime temps we'll have had yet.

I was outside doing yard work earlier and now I can barely move.

I am NOT getting old......
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 232 Comments: 24994

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About whitewabit

Retired weather junkie, currently living in Central Illinois. worst hurricane I've been through was Camille, in Biloxi, Ms. A Blog Moderator .

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