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Bill

By: whitewabit , 9:00 PM GMT on August 15, 2009







In the Atlantic :

Bill -

Has strenghtened to a Cat 4 Hurricane and may reach low Cat 5 status before starting to weeken... Bill appears to be at 20.6/58.8 moving on a NW track... the trough has started to set up and deepen which will turn Bill in more of a NNW motion... the tricky part is where he makes the turn and how sharp it is and how far west he gets... all of the models over the last few days have moved more to the left and thus closer to the coast... the people in Burmuda are watching Bill closely as they are in the cone and track is very important to then as they will be on the strongest side of Bill ... the models have Bill continuing north and making landfall in or near Nova Scotia as a much less intense storm..

Please listen to your local bulletins issued by the NWS in your area for flooding and tidal information...

Along the eastern seaboard escecially in the NE larger then normal swells and waves and increased riptide conditions will increase as Bill passes... surfers be safe!!!

-----------------------------------------------------

As we complete the first third of the 2009 Hurricane season... a trough has dominated the east coast, high pressure in the gulf, high wind shear in the Carribean and across the Atlantic and dust and dry air everywhere, and don't forget El Nino... the conditions created an atmosphere that was not conducive to storm formation...

It appears these conditions will remain for most of the month of August and then only slowly improve...

Under the current and foecast conditions the season is not able to support the number of storms predicted in May or June... thusly I am revising my hurricane forecast...



As promised...

My 2009 Hurricane Forecast

July Revised Season Forecast...

Named Storms - 9
Hurricanes - 4
Intense - 2 ( 3> )

June 1st season forecast

Named storms - 13
Hurricanes --- 6
Intense ------ 3


Actual Storm Numbers...
Named storms - 0
Hurricanes - 0
Intense (3>) - 0


WHAT DO YOU THINK THE SEASON WILL HAVE IN STORE???



US SURFACE ANALYSIS



ATLANTIC TROPICAL SURFACE ANALYSIS


WATER VAPOR



ATLANTIC TROPICAL WIND SHEAR


ATLANTIC TROPICAL WIND SHEAR


tracker

A warm welcome to all that visit my blog !!!

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17. condesa
12:16 AM GMT on August 25, 2009
Hi wabbit-
Heh, those weird long waves are back. :)
They started up on Friday, will continue for a few more days. They are running all the way from the coast of Chiapas up to Baja...
16. LakeWorthFinn
4:39 AM GMT on August 20, 2009
Hi LTT!
Wab, I saw the tornado watches and the front form a hook over your house on the radar, but then I didn't get a chance to check the internet till now. Glad you're safe.
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 69 Comments: 7833
15. whitewabit
2:06 AM GMT on August 20, 2009
Flash Flooding possible tonight after midnight as a strong area of storms in Missouri tracks to the NE overnight into the central Illinois area with expected rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches with locally heavier amounts...strong storms are possible...


Hope all have a Weather Radio... a must have here in the midwest and through out the country...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36248
14. whitewabit
12:16 AM GMT on August 20, 2009
Hey Love... So glad you don't have him headed your way... Ana looks like she just gave you some rain... any winds with her???
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36248
13. whitewabit
12:15 AM GMT on August 20, 2009
Heey Finn... did you see the low develope right over the top of us up here... was amazing to see it on radar... wish now I would have saved it...

got .9 inches of rain in about 15 minutes and I observed winds above 50 mph on the front gust line..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36248
12. Lovethetropics
9:03 PM GMT on August 19, 2009
Hello dear Wab!! Was looking for your blog two days ago and couldn't find it!!
We're getting rain bands not from Bill yet but sudden heavy showers with wind. Sure beats getting a visit from Bill himself.
Hugs my dear Wab!!
Member Since: August 18, 2005 Posts: 236 Comments: 11372
11. LakeWorthFinn
8:35 PM GMT on August 19, 2009
Thinking of you Wabit, you're being pounded! But then again, after going through the NE eye wall of Camille, I think these storms are nothing in comparison. Still impressed, didn't know you were there 40 years ago. And I feel so dumb that I called you that night when we had a bit of rough weather... If I had only known... lol But it was heart warming that you were there for me that night! Stay safe m'friend!
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 69 Comments: 7833
10. LakeWorthFinn
6:22 AM GMT on August 16, 2009
phew, thanks, good night dear wabit
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 69 Comments: 7833
9. whitewabit
6:20 AM GMT on August 16, 2009
just a break in the clouds...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36248
8. LakeWorthFinn
6:12 AM GMT on August 16, 2009
Hi Wabit, can't sleep, seeing red all over the map (haha)
Looks like 91L has an eye, do you see it?
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 69 Comments: 7833
7. whitewabit
6:08 AM GMT on August 16, 2009
hey Carolina... no one knows where Bill will go yet hoping for a big turn...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36248
6. whitewabit
6:07 AM GMT on August 16, 2009
For all those in the Gulf...

From the 2:05am NHC Weather Discussion :

SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT A SMALL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO CENTERED ABOUT 80 MILES SW OF
TAMPA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND MAY BE DEVELOPING A
CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. THIS AREA WAS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM N/CENTRAL FLORIDA...N OF TAMPA...TO THE
SE GULF NEAR 24N85W IS GENERATING AN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA COAST
AND 85W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE SOMETIME
TODAY.


Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36248
5. carolinagal
1:47 AM GMT on August 16, 2009
wabit - I'm glad to have your eyes on these systems.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 6834
4. seflagamma
1:42 AM GMT on August 16, 2009
is this crazy or what?
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 309 Comments: 41110
3. seflagamma
9:13 PM GMT on August 15, 2009
WABIT! lol

I am afraid you are correct...no way both will spin out to sea; maybe one will.

Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 309 Comments: 41110
2. whitewabit
9:10 PM GMT on August 15, 2009
Gamma... don't think thats going to happen...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36248
1. seflagamma
9:05 PM GMT on August 15, 2009
Hi Wabit,

Ana and Bill, not what I was wanting to hear this week.

Hopefull they will both just go away and not bother anyone! LOL

wishful thinking huh?

Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 309 Comments: 41110

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Retired weather junkie, currently living in Central Illinois. worst hurricane I've been through was Camille, in Biloxi, Ms. Retired Blog Moderator

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