IKE

By: whitewabit , 6:43 PM GMT on September 10, 2008

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Wabs Tropical Weather Forcast




Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON LARGE
HURRICANE IKE...LOCATED ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON
TEXAS.

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...INCLUDING SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES NORTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

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National Hurricane Bulletins



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TS IKE



WTNT34 KNHC 130656
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 48B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...EYE OF IKE MOVING ONTO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR GALVESTON....LANDFALL
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

AT 2 AM CDT...0700 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
FROM PORT ARANSAS SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM CDT...0700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.7 WEST OR ABOUT 10 MILES...
15 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 60 MILES...100
KM...SOUTHWEST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR. A
NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THIS MORNING...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF IKE SHOULD CROSS THE TEXAS COAST NEAR
GALVESTON IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN MOVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE...AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. STRONGER
WINDS...AS MUCH AS 30 MPH HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE...COULD OCCUR
ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ON THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN
FREEPORT AND SABINE PASS. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SEA RIM
STATE PARK TEXAS RECENTLY REPORTED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 76
MPH...122 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 99 MPH...159 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 953 MB...28.14 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH NEAR 25 FEET
IN SOME AREAS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN
USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA.

REPEATING THE 200 AM CDT POSITION...29.2 N...94.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/RHOME






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Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


US SURFACE ANALYSIS



ATLANTIC TROPICAL SURFACE ANALYSIS


WATER VAPOR



ATLANTIC TROPICAL WIND SHEAR


ATLANTIC TROPICAL WIND SHEAR


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147. whitewabit
7:52 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
new blog up...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 376 Comments: 35531
146. HateHurricanes
3:14 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
Love, I think he is sleeping in the barn now.

He is just making too much noise when he sleeps. Poor thing. Maybe I'll stop
calling him Old Coot. Maybe,
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3080
145. Lovethetropics
2:48 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
Good morning dear HH!! Wab must be still sleeping...
Member Since: August 18, 2005 Posts: 236 Comments: 11372
144. HateHurricanes
2:32 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
Good Morning, OC!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3080
143. whitewabit
7:47 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
73ยบ and rain...

Nite all...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 376 Comments: 35531
142. whitewabit
7:37 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
2am just posted...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 376 Comments: 35531
141. whitewabit
7:37 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
HGW...had that go through here earlier...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 376 Comments: 35531
140. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:25 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
Got tornado watch to my east.. and flash flooding is occuring.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 51125
139. whitewabit
6:08 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
WTNT54 KNHC 130553
TCEAT4
HURRICANE IKE TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
100 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF LARGE HURRICANE IKE WAS
ESTIMATED BY NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 29.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.7 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES...35 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
EYE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER THE GALVESTON AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.

THE NATIONAL OCEAN SURFACE STATION AT THE GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 85 MPH...137 KM/HR.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 376 Comments: 35531
138. whitewabit
5:43 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
not really any change in this last bulletin...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 376 Comments: 35531
137. whitewabit
5:37 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
12am bulletin posted...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 376 Comments: 35531
136. whitewabit
4:58 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
Ike not quite on shore yet...

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 376 Comments: 35531
135. whitewabit
4:46 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
HH...they have all moved to the north of me...at least for now...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 376 Comments: 35531
134. whitewabit
4:44 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
appears Ike is coming to shore just to the south of Houston...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 376 Comments: 35531
133. HateHurricanes
4:35 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
There is another one west of Peoria.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3080
132. condesa
4:35 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
Wab-
I have no TV or radio info; I am depending on Wu, and right now pretty much on you for some brief, graphic descriptions.Vort's blog is loading real slow.
I see you are having tornados, so I do realize this is an extraordinary request.
I can't access NOAA or some of the other member's good info sites.
Thanks for letting us know that landfall is about happening.
Most of my family/relatives and many good friends are in Texas, many in South Texas.
As you can, would you please keep up; so many sites are impossible to access.
131. whitewabit
4:28 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
looks like the eyewall is right next to shore...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 376 Comments: 35531
130. whitewabit
4:26 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
this is a time in a storm where all you can do is set and watch... and feel so helpless...

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 376 Comments: 35531
129. whitewabit
4:21 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
Tornado warning for me has just been canceled...but still have the Severe TS Warning till 2am...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 376 Comments: 35531
128. whitewabit
4:19 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
yes it went just barely west of me...watched the storm go by...sirens were going off and reports of 3 inches of rain in 45 minutes...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 376 Comments: 35531
127. HateHurricanes
4:18 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
I know. If they are running seaward then they

would reverse with water coming in.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3080
126. whitewabit
4:18 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
Finn...Nite...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 376 Comments: 35531
125. HateHurricanes
4:17 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
Did you watch the pink square? Stayed around

for a long time. Looked like it was right over you.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3080
124. whitewabit
4:16 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
HH...yes the surge will make the rivers and small streams to flow backwards flooding those areas...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 376 Comments: 35531
123. whitewabit
4:14 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
yes, but no tornado up here that I have heard....
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 376 Comments: 35531
122. HateHurricanes
4:13 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
Lots goin g on tonight Fin.
Big traincrash north of La. 20 dead so far.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3080
121. LakeWorthFinn
4:06 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
Be safe {{{Wab}}} and good night to you and {{{HH}}}.
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 69 Comments: 7712
120. HateHurricanes
4:03 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
Now, that looked a little close!
(loosing posts right and left)
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3080
119. HateHurricanes
3:53 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
They just said something about rivers around galveston were flowing in a different direction. At least I think that is what they said.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3080
118. whitewabit
3:53 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
will be by me in a few more minutes...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 376 Comments: 35531
117. HateHurricanes
3:47 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
Looks like it's gone now.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3080
116. whitewabit
3:46 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
yes coming up the tornado track...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 376 Comments: 35531
115. HateHurricanes
3:41 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
Looks like ol' X7 is aiming at you.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3080
114. whitewabit
3:37 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
tornado warning for me for the next 45 minutes...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 376 Comments: 35531
113. whitewabit
3:03 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
10pm bulletin posted...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 376 Comments: 35531
112. condesa
12:33 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
Hi wab-
111. whitewabit
12:26 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
Ok Finn...we will be here if you decide to return...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 376 Comments: 35531
110. LakeWorthFinn
12:18 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
We think of people,like the elderly and kids, of course. But I get sick when I imagine what the livestock and pets that are to fend for themselves are going though. So many will drown.

Got to take a break. My heart is too heavy. If you won't see me later, I've just gone to sleep and left prayer candles on (they are in safe bowls). With the loss of my nephew and sharing the immense grief of my little brother I may not even want to watch this tragedy unfold.
TTYL
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 69 Comments: 7712
109. Lovethetropics
12:16 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
That she is, Wab...awake and roaring!!
Member Since: August 18, 2005 Posts: 236 Comments: 11372
108. LakeWorthFinn
12:12 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
ROTF WAB
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 69 Comments: 7712
107. whitewabit
12:08 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
Love...lol...she's awake now isn't she...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 376 Comments: 35531
106. whitewabit
12:06 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
Aqua... yes all we can do now is watch and hope for the best...hoping all in low lying areas found safer ground...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 376 Comments: 35531
105. LakeWorthFinn
12:05 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
So hard to believe that a Mayor would not heed mandatory evacuation orders and thus put his fellow citizens in danger with that.

Like the guy in my rant yesterday...
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 69 Comments: 7712
104. HateHurricanes
12:03 AM GMT on September 13, 2008
Wabit, you're just a senile old coot. You

sleep all day because you can't sleep at night.

Wake yourself up with those horrid snoaring/
snorting sounds you make. SHE told me.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3080
103. Lovethetropics
11:59 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
Yes Lissu, it's going to be a long night...specially to those that didn't leave Galveston.
Member Since: August 18, 2005 Posts: 236 Comments: 11372
102. LakeWorthFinn
11:55 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
oh, LTT, you're here too, HI! Gonna be a long night.
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 69 Comments: 7712
101. LakeWorthFinn
11:54 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
HI aqua (and Wab of course:).
I just wrote on my blog that there's a limit to what we can do and must let go and let God take care of the rest.

The eye is visibly closing, getting smaller. Is that a sign of intensification? Not that it matters much at this point as the size, surge and flooding is the issue with Ike
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 69 Comments: 7712
100. Lovethetropics
11:54 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
OMG Wab!! At HH's AGE??? Lost your mind, did you??
Member Since: August 18, 2005 Posts: 236 Comments: 11372
99. Lovethetropics
11:53 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
Love you too Aqua!!

Hello dear HH!! Go take a nap, we'll be here drinking coffee and worrying for the guys in Ike's path...
Member Since: August 18, 2005 Posts: 236 Comments: 11372
98. whitewabit
11:50 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
HH...yes at your age you will probably need one...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 376 Comments: 35531
97. aquak9
11:48 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
hi wab, LTT, finn, HH, all the others here.

quietly lurking, crying inside...feeling helpless.

Wish I would've visited Emmy. It would've made her so happy.

Love to all ya'll.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 192 Comments: 27886

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About whitewabit

Retired weather junkie, currently living in Central Illinois. worst hurricane I've been through was Camille, in Biloxi, Ms. A Blog Moderator .

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