Fay

By: whitewabit , 7:43 PM GMT on August 16, 2008

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Wabs Tropical Weather Forcast

INVEST 94L




FAY




--------------------------------------------------
National Hurricane Bulletins


WTNT31 KNHC 201742
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
200 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008

...FAY STALLS NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL...DUMPING TORRENTIAL RAINS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FORT PIERCE
NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA
SOUND TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST ABOUT 15
MILES...20 KM...NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

FAY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. FAY IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION LATER TODAY WITH A TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING MOSTLY OVER WATER WELL TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
30 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN FLORIDA. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. AN UNOFFICIAL REPORT OF
NEAR 22 INCHES OF RAIN WAS MEASURED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF
MELBOURNE FLORIDA.

STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF FAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...28.6 N...80.6 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

---------------------------------------------------------


Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


US SURFACE ANALYSIS



ATLANTIC TROPICAL SURFACE ANALYSIS


WATER VAPOR



ATLANTIC TROPICAL WIND SHEAR


ATLANTIC TROPICAL WIND SHEAR


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229. whitewabit
6:11 AM GMT on August 20, 2008
latest Bulletin just up...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32405
228. whitewabit
6:07 AM GMT on August 20, 2008
64ยบ
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32405
227. whitewabit
6:06 AM GMT on August 20, 2008
well off for the night...the Fay saga will continue tomorrow...

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32405
226. whitewabit
4:48 AM GMT on August 20, 2008
know one really has any idea on intensity right now either...when and where she makes the big turn to the west if the ridge builds back in...the building high in the Atlantic should try to push her south and west...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32405
225. carolinagal
4:41 AM GMT on August 20, 2008
yea, I know. It is just strange to see Fay in the forecast. I guess she is in a lot of forecasts then.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 6794
224. whitewabit
4:34 AM GMT on August 20, 2008
hello Carolina...I would keep a close eye on Fay... shes not following the rules...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32405
223. whitewabit
4:32 AM GMT on August 20, 2008
Fay moved east to the Florida east coast and is slowly moving northward...stradling the coast... she is over Palm Bay presently...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32405
222. carolinagal
4:05 AM GMT on August 20, 2008
stay tuned is right....

click on my location and you see hurricane/tropical conditions are listed for thursday and Friday. I know anything is possible, but since the current predictions don't include us, I think it's strange for it to be a part of our forecast.

Hope all is well with you, wab.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 6794
221. whitewabit
3:03 AM GMT on August 20, 2008
so now what will the models do with her...

she is further south then most of the models had her...will she stall before heading north and then west...will her turn be soon enough to put her in the very hot Gulf...will she get into the gulf-stream and head north towards Georgia lotta heat there too...

stay tuned...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32405
220. whitewabit
2:55 AM GMT on August 20, 2008
Love it has really been unusual we are this cool in our hottest month
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32405
219. whitewabit
2:54 AM GMT on August 20, 2008
Fay has moved to the east as her eye opened and looks ready to enter the Atlantic...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32405
218. Lovethetropics
2:50 AM GMT on August 20, 2008
I have Washington, IL as a favorite, so I can see the great temps you're getting...lucky you!
Member Since: August 18, 2005 Posts: 236 Comments: 11348
217. whitewabit
2:42 AM GMT on August 20, 2008
then I won't tell you it has been beautiful up here...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32405
216. Lovethetropics
2:14 AM GMT on August 20, 2008
I'm fine, Wab...but the heat is horrible...and no AC until 11:00 pm...bummer
Member Since: August 18, 2005 Posts: 236 Comments: 11348
215. whitewabit
2:05 AM GMT on August 20, 2008
Hello love... how are you today ???
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32405
214. whitewabit
2:04 AM GMT on August 20, 2008
nite Finn...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32405
213. Lovethetropics
1:53 AM GMT on August 20, 2008
Hello Wab, HH and Lissu!!
Member Since: August 18, 2005 Posts: 236 Comments: 11348
212. LakeWorthFinn
1:50 AM GMT on August 20, 2008
So Fay sucked in some and then spit it out! :)

Nite!
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7416
211. LakeWorthFinn
1:48 AM GMT on August 20, 2008
Oh poor Skye and neighbors! Gonna light a candle in front of my statue of St, Francis and the golden Buddha next to it.
Then go to bed, I'm exhausted after listening to over 800 NOOA alerts last night and hardly getting any sleep.

BTW, my sis "scorp"has a blog up, her first and also her first TS. Lost her virginity and it's all my fault... :)

Good night dear wab!
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7416
210. whitewabit
1:43 AM GMT on August 20, 2008
Finn ...one area from the NW of Lake O down a line SSW of Lake O got near 12 inches today...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32405
209. whitewabit
1:40 AM GMT on August 20, 2008
if you go to the Tampa Bay radar you can see the eye opening
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32405
208. LakeWorthFinn
1:39 AM GMT on August 20, 2008
lol wab! What a relief, her sucking power not that strong then.
And yippee, now we can water the lawn - ROTF!
They should have deployed Cantore on the Northern banks of Lake O. :)
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7416
207. whitewabit
1:38 AM GMT on August 20, 2008
the one rain band is pounding the Melborne area...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32405
206. whitewabit
1:37 AM GMT on August 20, 2008
HH...so hasn't gotten up to you yet... looks to be falling apart...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32405
205. whitewabit
1:36 AM GMT on August 20, 2008
9pm Bulletin up...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32405
204. HateHurricanes
1:34 AM GMT on August 20, 2008
Little rain here and a few nice gusts of wind.
Dark clouds moving like race cars all afternoon.Fun to watch.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3080
203. whitewabit
1:30 AM GMT on August 20, 2008
Fay's tight spiral she has displayed most of the day is starting to look pretty ragged...

Fay has moved east far enough that she isn't able to draw moisture from the gulf and has stalled...Fay is starting to loose her convection which will cause her to fall apart unless Fay is able to get closer to or into the Atlantic.....
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32405
202. whitewabit
1:15 AM GMT on August 20, 2008
hopefully Fay will give a little rain to northern Florida also...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32405
201. whitewabit
1:15 AM GMT on August 20, 2008
yes...would say the drought is over in south Florida...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32405
200. whitewabit
1:14 AM GMT on August 20, 2008
LOL... no it CAN"T suck up Lake O ...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32405
199. LakeWorthFinn
1:11 AM GMT on August 20, 2008
All rain dancers have stopped. We asked for it, prayed for it, danced for it, and here she is, flooding the whole state!
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7416
198. LakeWorthFinn
1:08 AM GMT on August 20, 2008
I saw an eye forming on the radar over land, now Dr. Masters has an awesome pic of it on his blog entry! What's going on? Can she suck Lake Okeechobee's water in and leave an empty lake? I know, dumb question, but I know so little!
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7416
197. whitewabit
11:41 PM GMT on August 19, 2008
Fay looks to have slowed down...rain totals so far are between 4 and 12 inches...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32405
196. whitewabit
9:22 PM GMT on August 19, 2008
Fay looks to take a west turn back over Florida after emerging off the east coast of Florida... Dr Masters gives it a 60% chance of turning and entering the gulf....
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32405
195. PantsOfDistinction
9:17 PM GMT on August 19, 2008
Whaat&reade;??

Anyone ever see a storm do this? Local teevee have been really flummoxed because Fay has been getting stronger over land. Local radar, wind gauges, and field reporters have been showing this storm is getting stronger over land. Moore Haven looks to be getting it worse than Marco Island. They've over ten inches of rain right now; we got two in Cape Coral.

The Black and White Cats® slept most of the day, when they weren't complaining about not being out on the lanai.
194. whitewabit
9:10 PM GMT on August 19, 2008
never mine just looked... have never seen a TS intensify overland or build an eyewall on land...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32405
193. whitewabit
9:03 PM GMT on August 19, 2008
Finn ... who said it had an eye???
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32405
192. LakeWorthFinn
7:47 PM GMT on August 19, 2008
oh HH, tell me about poops! How can two poop sooooo much, and you're talking about 8! Oh my...

Nobody :( answered my dum question about how can a TS have an eye? I thought only canes had one.

Now off to my blog to upload pics I took an hour ago.
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7416
191. HateHurricanes
6:39 PM GMT on August 19, 2008
Hi Wabit.
Just starting to blow a little and rain a little. Everyone came with their dogs this
morning to miss the rain. Had 8 of them
running like crazy and of course pooping.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3080
190. collinsfarm
6:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2008
Reporting in Wabit. We are just above the outer squall bands right now. This Fay is certainly not going to win any land speed records, that's for sure.
Member Since: September 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1354
189. whitewabit
6:00 PM GMT on August 19, 2008
Fay has been hard to forecast before landfall and will contiue to do so now...

after landfall storms usually start loosing intensity but Fay has been able to increase her winds a bit...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32405
188. whitewabit
5:56 PM GMT on August 19, 2008
Tsapp models don't have it going up the coast at this time... but of course models change and those in the Carolina's should keep an eye on Fay...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32405
187. whitewabit
5:52 PM GMT on August 19, 2008
what kind of winds are you seeing Skye????
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32405
186. Tsapp2008
5:52 PM GMT on August 19, 2008
What effect do yall think that SC Coast could expect. Thanks Taylor
185. Skyepony (Mod)
5:38 PM GMT on August 19, 2008
Looks like winds are to 65mph now..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39374
184. whitewabit
5:27 PM GMT on August 19, 2008
Skye... Fay is still stronger then I thought she would be at this time...take care !!!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32405
183. Skyepony (Mod)
5:20 PM GMT on August 19, 2008
Got squally weather. May get the eye. Saved my cotton plant, tied up the tomatos. May pull a few of those in. Looks like it's strengthening but need to look around.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39374
182. MaryEstherFLA
4:13 PM GMT on August 19, 2008
{{{wandom wabbit hug}}}

:o)
Member Since: August 4, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 1190
181. LakeWorthFinn
3:41 PM GMT on August 19, 2008
Post appearing quicker now. It's all gammas fault, too many birthday wishes lol

How can Fay have an eye? I thought just canes have eyes.
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7416
180. whitewabit
3:29 PM GMT on August 19, 2008
well hope what ever maintenance they did they fixed posts not showing...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32405
179. whitewabit
3:03 PM GMT on August 19, 2008
models all over the place for Fay this morning...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32405

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Retired weather junkie, currently living in Central Illinois. worst hurricane I've been through was Camille, in Biloxi, Ms. A Blog Moderator .

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