Will she ever develope ???

By: whitewabit , 12:00 AM GMT on August 15, 2008






Wabs Tropical Weather Forcast

The NHC has developement on 92L at >50% (High)

92L ... well over the last few hours 92L has again wained and doesn't appear to be closed right now...shear remains low less then 10kts and is expected to remain low over the next few days according to models...92L will give Puerto Rico a close to direct hit in a few hours...this may cause her to loose the circulation and become a wave again...but we will have to see if that happens

As 92L continues to move almost due west... Puerto Rico will recieve a direct hit later tonight they can expect winds to 35-40mph with higher gusts and heavy rains 4-6 inches...

everyone in the Carribean should have finished making Hurricane plans...and remain alert to any changes in 92Ls projected path...those in the Bahamas and S Florida should be starting thier hurricane plan as 92L is projected to be at hurricane by the time it reaches those points...

92L




--------------------------------------------------
National Hurricane Bulletins



ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS
CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH AND IS LOCATED OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A
CONCENTRATED AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT DOES NOT
YET APPEAR TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THE
SURFACE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
HOWEVER...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND
CAICOS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY. INTERESTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

2. A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB


---------------------------------------------------------


Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


US SURFACE ANALYSIS



ATLANTIC TROPICAL SURFACE ANALYSIS


WATER VAPOR



ATLANTIC TROPICAL WIND SHEAR


ATLANTIC TROPICAL WIND SHEAR


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23. whitewabit
6:29 PM GMT on August 15, 2008
new blog up shortly...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36255
22. code1
8:04 AM GMT on August 15, 2008
GR and Wab, I hope not! Insomnia is not good. Ya'll take care!

72.8 °F / 22.7 °C
Clear
Humidity: 98%
Dew Point: 72 °F / 22 °C

Nite Wab!
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
21. whitewabit
8:01 AM GMT on August 15, 2008
well nite all... catch all in the morrow...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36255
20. whitewabit
8:00 AM GMT on August 15, 2008
GR...know what you mean...staying weak means further west usually...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36255
19. GetReal
7:49 AM GMT on August 15, 2008
Good morning wabbit... I am beginning ti keep an ever more concerned eye on 92L... It looks menacing on the sat pics... And looking more likely to get into GOM.... UGH!!
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8972
18. whitewabit
7:29 AM GMT on August 15, 2008
63.5º humidity 95% and the dew point is 61º
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36255
17. whitewabit
6:40 AM GMT on August 15, 2008
Red...yes know all about it...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36255
16. Redhead
6:28 AM GMT on August 15, 2008
Still here lurking on Doc's blog. Insomnia is the pits! LOL!
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 7042
15. whitewabit
6:24 AM GMT on August 15, 2008
nite Red...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36255
14. Redhead
5:46 AM GMT on August 15, 2008
75.7 °F
Clear
Humidity: 86%
Nite, Wab....
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 7042
13. whitewabit
4:44 AM GMT on August 15, 2008
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36255
12. whitewabit
4:41 AM GMT on August 15, 2008
Hurricane Hunters getting ready to enter the 92L from the south...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36255
11. whitewabit
4:10 AM GMT on August 15, 2008
leave for a few minutes and this happens... 92L looks like she is relocating again to the north of PR...stay tune for further relocations...lol...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36255
10. whitewabit
2:19 AM GMT on August 15, 2008
Skye ...was looking at it earlier...it has been persitant with it going into the Carribean not just this soon...

and think the relocation caught everyone by surprize...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36255
9. Skyepony
2:14 AM GMT on August 15, 2008
I agree, most haven't come close to putting 92L where it is now. This is more what the CMC has been saying.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 364 Comments: 42540
8. whitewabit
2:07 AM GMT on August 15, 2008
92L is again expanding the convection around it and looks to give Puerto Rico a direct hit early tomorrow am... winds should be in the 35-40 with gusts to 50 ...higher elevations could experience stronger winds...

As always look to your weather service for area warnings and bulletins...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36255
7. whitewabit
1:58 AM GMT on August 15, 2008
the models moved to the right slightly...but because they were initialized much to the north of 92L's position now the next set should go back to the left some...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36255
6. whitewabit
1:22 AM GMT on August 15, 2008
yes that is the ridge that should turn it to the north...but where it is when it turns north isn't settled yet...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36255
5. makinsey
1:12 AM GMT on August 15, 2008
just looking at all the weather that is pushing off the coast of FL. may be that it will turn north.
4. whitewabit
1:08 AM GMT on August 15, 2008
Mak...the models are split on that with several seeing it go into the gulf and others taking a sharp right turn along the east coast of Florida...with the southern relocation and it now going over more of Puerto Rico the models will change because of this...

something tells me to go with the gulf models but weather wize the ridge will try to turn her and believe that is the choice but the turn may not be as sharp...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36255
3. makinsey
12:55 AM GMT on August 15, 2008
what do you think it will do .will it turn north an miss. or hit Fl.
2. whitewabit
12:49 AM GMT on August 15, 2008
Evening Skye...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 380 Comments: 36255
1. Skyepony
12:42 AM GMT on August 15, 2008
1st!
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 364 Comments: 42540

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About whitewabit

Retired weather junkie, currently living in Central Illinois. worst hurricane I've been through was Camille, in Biloxi, Ms. Retired Blog Moderator

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