weather

NOT YET !!

By: whitewabit, 4:27 AM GMT on June 30, 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUL 1 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND BERMUDA HAS DIMINISHED.

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
FORECASTER KNABB

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. BEST WAVE SIGNATURE IS WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 44W-48W.

LOW-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 10N MOVING W 15 KT. LONG-TERM LOOPS SUGGEST THE WAVE IS QUITE WEAK AND IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER VENEZUELA... PRODUCING A TSTM OR TWO.

HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM NEAR PANAMA AT 9N79W NNE THRU CUBA TO JUST E OF ANDROS ISLAND MOVING WNW 15-20 KT. LARGE INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE IS BEHIND THE WAVE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 66W-72W AND OTHER TSTMS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 75W-80W PLUS NEAR JAMAICA/THE CAYMANS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER S FLORDA LATER TODAY INTO TOMORROW AS THE MOISTURE AREA MOVES IN.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 6N31W 11N45W 9N60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 10N W OF 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 32W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS PERSISTS IN THE WESTERN GULF... ASSISTED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER TEXAS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS DOT THE GULF W OF 90W THOUGH A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION IS OFFSHORE... NOT RELIEVING THE DROUGHT SITUATION OVER LOUISIANA. UPPER RIDGING IS LIMITING MOST OF THE TSTMS IN THE E GULF SAVE A FEW NEAR S FLORIDA THOUGH THERE ARE PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS. COMPUTER MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT TOMORROW
WILL BE WETTER THAN TODAY OVER TEXAS AS THE MOISTURE AREA IN THE W GULF MOVES THROUGH. THE E GULF SHOULD BECOME WETTER AS WELL DUE TO THE NORTHERN END OF A TROPICAL WAVE HEADING INTO THE REGION. MOSTLY ELY WINDS OF 10-15 KT SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN TODAY IS THE
STRONG WINDS AS GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO THE W ATLC AND COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURES OVER NW COLOMBIA IS LEADING TO THE HIGH WINDS. OTHERWISE... SMALL-SCALE RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS IN PLACE THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA IS DRY DUE TO MID/UPPER SUBSIDENCE. FIRST RIDGE IS ALONG ABOUT 82W AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS S OF 19N ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION WITH ONLY ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 12N70W AND EASTERNMOST UPPER RIDGING IS FROM 14N63W TO JUST N OF THE ABC ISLANDS. ENHANCED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD PERSIST OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS. NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN EARLY MON AS THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 45W COMES INTO THE REGION WITH COMPUTER MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ANOTHER BURST OF STRONG WINDS MIGHT ACCOMPANY THE WAVE AS HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGING IS OVER THE W ATLC WITH AXIS FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 31N70W. DIFFLUENCE ON THE W SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING TSTMS THAT ARE IN THE NW BAHAMAS. NARROW RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 20N65W NNE TO 31N61W WITH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM MOSTLY DISSIPATED TSTMS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 65W-70W JUST AHEAD OF THE W ATLC TROUGH AXIS. FARTHER E... MID-OCEANIC TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 31N32W TO 18N60W WITH A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS NEAR 21N49W AND 26N44W. WEAK TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC ALONG 23W N OF 27N WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE THE TROPICAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
LARGE RIDGE FROM W MAURITANIA THRU THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 12N40W WESTWARD TO NEAR BARBADOS. SOME ENHANCEMENT IN
SHOWERS/TSTMS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE IN THE ITCZ.. OTHERWISE AFRICAN DUST/DRY AIR COVERS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA E OF 45W WITH SOME ALSO INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. TRADES ARE RATHER ENHANCED IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PART OF THE AREA DUE TO A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 36N47W AND PRESSURES ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
BLAKE








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Updated: 8:35 PM GMT on July 01, 2006

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NOT YET !!

By: whitewabit, 3:28 PM GMT on June 29, 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE AREA REMAIN HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE PRESENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA ... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 31W-36W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS WAVE. ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 48W-53W.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 68W/69W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH... PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS THAT EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND NORTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. THESE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT
ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THESE ISLANDS UNDER A SE WIND FLOW. BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ... ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 4N30W 7N50W 7N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 17W-20W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS NEAR 34N91W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING COVERS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO N OF 24N WITH MAINLY 5-10 KT ELY FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO ALONG 23N93W 16N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 93W-96W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 87W-91W. ELSEWHERE...AFTERNOON AND EVENING AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 80W-82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 24N103W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 240 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 88W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS W OF 85W. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 73W-77W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN... SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 77W-83W. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER COSTA RICA FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN 82W-86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 13N85W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 78W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 60W-78W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W. ALSO EXPECT
AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 30N64W 21N68W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 61W-64W. A 1032 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 38N52W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA AT 35N67W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-77W. A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12N45W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 5N-30N BETWEEN 30W-60W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N
OF 10N BETWEEN 10W-30W.








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Updated: 4:10 AM GMT on June 30, 2006

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NOT YET !!

By: whitewabit, 9:20 PM GMT on June 27, 2006

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE...INTERACTING WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...ISPRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND NORTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PROHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND PUERTO RICO HAS DIMINISHED.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO PRECIPITATION IS DIRECTLY RELATED JUST TO THIS WAVE. ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 30W AND 32W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DIRECTLY RELATED JUST TO THIS WAVE.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W SOUTH
OF 20N IS MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 57W AND
60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 54W AND 62W
GOING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND SPILLING INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 10N TO
20N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE WAVE MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT. BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING...AND OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W/96W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING
PRECIPITATION ARE SOUTH OF 25N WEST OF 90W TO THE MEXICO
COAST. EVEN THE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS DISSIPATED.







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Updated: 3:30 PM GMT on June 29, 2006

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NOT YET...

By: whitewabit, 3:31 AM GMT on June 26, 2006

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
228 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

RECENT INFORMATION FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS CENTERED ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. WHILE THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON ITS EAST SIDE... THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION... AND IS THEREFORE NOT A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. THE AIRCRAFT WILL CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. RESIDENTS IN COASTAL REGIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA... VIRGINIA... AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED WITH LITTLE NOTICE. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT FORM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE... IT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FORECASTER STEWART

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY... AND POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR IT TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION EXISTS AT THE SURFACE. RESIDENTS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT FORM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ONSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES ON WEDNESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
FORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART






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Updated: 9:12 PM GMT on June 27, 2006

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STILL QUIET

By: whitewabit, 1:14 AM GMT on June 25, 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN JUN 25 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AND DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...IS ENHANCING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE IS LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WESTWARD-MOVING DISTURBANCE AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN







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Updated: 3:21 AM GMT on June 26, 2006

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STILL QUIET

By: whitewabit, 6:19 AM GMT on June 23, 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOW CENTERED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

A SMALL NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 825 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY..WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA







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Updated: 11:57 PM GMT on June 24, 2006

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STILL QUIET

By: whitewabit, 1:34 PM GMT on June 21, 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2006


BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEFINED WITH A SMALL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR 11N23W. AN AREA OF MODERATE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 21W-24W. REMAINDER OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 70/90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-13N. REMAINDER OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE SHOULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THAT AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NICARAGUA... HONDURAS ...AND THE W CARIBBEAN sEA FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 82W-86W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE BAHAMAS ALONG 32N73W 24N74W DRIFTING W. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEMS HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...BUT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR 30N89W. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER ARE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 83W-85W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER SW FLORIDA FROM 25N-26N BETWEEN 81W-82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER SE TEXAS FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 95W-97W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY FLOW COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT FOR THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA WHERE SELY FLOW IS NOTED DUE TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER E GEORGIA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 23N...WHILE ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS S OF 23N. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.







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Updated: 5:34 AM GMT on June 23, 2006

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QUIET FOR NOW

By: whitewabit, 7:07 PM GMT on June 17, 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUN 20 2006

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
LOW PRES 1009 MB NEAR 12N117W MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE O STRONG CONVECTION ORGANIZED IN BANDS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY WITHIN 240 NM IN NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT BUT APPROACHING AREA OF DIFFLUENCE AT UPPER LEVELS WHICH WOULD PROVIDE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SYSTEMS BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE JUST OFF COAST OF PANAMA DRAGGING PLENTY OF
CONVECTION FROM CARIBBEAN SEA WITH MARKED DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ENHANCING CONVECTION. PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH GOOD UPLIFTING MECHANISM AND UPPER LEVEL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS EXTENSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION. WAVE SHOULD DEPART THIS ENVIRON AND ENTER INTO A MORE HOSTILE SW SHEAR WITHIN NEXT 36 HRS AND SHOULD DIMINISH ITS ACTIVITY.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 104W FROM 4N TO 15N MOVING W 12-15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS.SYSTEM TAKING ADVANTAGE OF WEAKER THAN FORECAST UPPER LEVEL WIND TO DEVELOP CONVECTION BEFORE ENTERING AREA OF ADVERSE CONDITIONS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 115W FROM 3N TO 11N MOVING W 12 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION MERGING WITH LOW PRES MENTIONED IN SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. HOSTILE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FORECAST TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ALLOWING SYSTEM TO BE POTENTIALLY INTENSIFY INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 134W FROM 3N TO 12N MOVING W 10 KT.
EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS AND HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT A;LOFT PRECLUDES NY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE TO DEVELOP.






ALASKA VOLCANO OBSERVATORY

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Updated: 3:29 AM GMT on June 21, 2006

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QUIET FOR NOW

By: whitewabit, 4:35 PM GMT on June 14, 2006

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE BASED ON A MID LEVEL ROTATION. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 38W-43W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS WELL-DEFINED N OF 12N AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 20N54W-16N60W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W S OF 19N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THUS DIMINISHING THE WAVE SIGNATURE. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.






ALASKA VOLCANO OBSERVATORY

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Updated: 5:10 PM GMT on June 17, 2006

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WAVE IN THE CARRIBEAN

By: whitewabit, 4:07 PM GMT on June 13, 2006

Well Alberto is gone...so we are still waiting for for the
first HURRICANE of the season...CJ made the call on the wave just west of the lower Antilles, it needs to be watched...it appears the wind shear is blowing the tops off of this wave so we will need to see it it is strong enough to survive...wind shear is lower in the western carribean..






ALASKA VOLCANO OBSERVATORY

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HURRICANE CHECK-IN



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Updated: 5:14 AM GMT on June 14, 2006

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SUNNY

By: whitewabit, 5:21 PM GMT on June 11, 2006

ALASKA VOLCANO OBSERVATORY

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Updated: 7:49 PM GMT on June 12, 2006

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RAIN TODAY

By: whitewabit, 7:31 AM GMT on June 09, 2006



View of the east-southeast flanks of Augustine volcano.
Picture Date: June 02, 2006 11:00:00
Image Creator: McGimsey, Game

Other photos can be found at the provide AVO link under Augustine Images
ALASKA VOLCANO OBSERVATORY

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Updated: 4:03 PM GMT on June 10, 2006

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SUNNY

By: whitewabit, 4:28 PM GMT on June 05, 2006



View of the east-southeast flanks of Augustine volcano.
Picture Date: June 02, 2006 11:00:00
Image Creator: McGimsey, Game

Other photos can be found at the provide AVO link under Augustine Images
ALASKA VOLCANO OBSERVATORY

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HURRICANE CHECK-IN




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Updated: 7:30 AM GMT on June 09, 2006

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SUNNY

By: whitewabit, 3:53 PM GMT on June 01, 2006



No. 5 in series. Images of an eruption at Augustine, 5/26/2006, about 8 am, ADT.
Picture Date: May 26, 2006
Image Creator: Byerly, Mike

Other photos can be found at the provide AVO link under Augustine Images
ALASKA VOLCANO OBSERVATORY

BLOG DIRECTORY
HURRICANE CHECK-IN




Project safe kids
Blogamber.com
CHILD SEEK NETWORK

Updated: 3:59 PM GMT on June 02, 2006

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About whitewabit

Retired weather junkie, currently living in Central Illinois. worst hurricane I've been through was Camille, in Biloxi, Ms. A Blog Moderator .