TS Lee and Hurricane Katia Evening Update
Bob's Official 2011 Tropical Atlantic Numbers:
16-18 Named Storms
7-9 Hurricanes
4-6 Major Hurricanes
Areas Most At Risk This Season:
1.)Eastern U.S Coastline
2.)Central and South Florida
3.)Northern Gulf Coast from Mississippi to Western Florida Panhandle.
2011 Atlantic Current Numbers:
12 Named Storms
2 Hurricanes
1 Major Hurricanes
Hurricane Katia and TS Lee is our focus this Labor Day weekend.
We continue to watch Hurricane Katia as she makes her move to the North of the Islands. Southwest shear continues to affect her today and this shear should continue during the next 48 hours. This will keep Katia in check. After 48 hours some slow strengthening is possible before Katia encounters some dry, stable air moving into the Western Atlantic. Its unlikely at this time that Katia will become a Major Hurricane. Beyond the 5 day period the forecast still remains alittle cloudy as it pertains to any affects along the East Coast. It all hinges on how Katia interacts with Lee and how strong our trough is off the East Coast. I believe if Lee is alittle stronger and farther East with its track this could pull Katia farther West. I run down all of the model runs and my thoughts in the video above.
TS Lee is now approx. 185 miles SW of the Mouth of the Mississippi River with max. winds of 45 mph. Lee continues to slowly strengthen as it remains nearly stationary with a slow North drift. Lee has entangled itself with an Upper Low to its West/Northwest. This has limited convection from building on its Western side. As long as the Upper Low is around, Lee will not strengthen quickly. The shear near Lee is favorable for strengthening during the next 48 hours and the waters are warm. There may be a small window of opportunity for Lee to become a Hurricane as this Upper Level Low weakens before landfall sometime on Sunday. Lee will move slowly off to the North and then Northeast early next week. The main threat for Lee is flooding rains, beach erosion, and coastal flooding. Power Outages are possible in the Tropical Storm Warned area as wet ground combined with gusty winds could bring down trees and powerlines. Tornadoes are also possible to the East and Northeast of the Center. For more of my thoughts on Lee please view the video above.
Hurricane Katia Satellite View:
TS Katia Official Forecast Track NHC:
TS Katia Model Runs:
TS Lee Satellite View:
TS Lee Model Runs:
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Reader Comments
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Thanks Bob!
Nothing to shunt it quickly to the East, so its gonna be a slow move to the North/Northeast. Can't see it moving to far East. Its destined for Southeastern Louisiana/Southern Miss coasts. Minimal chance.
I'll be watching! As long as it doesn't blow up ill be ok in the rain lol
Gonna be alot of rain and gusty winds so I would be careful. That entire area is under Flood Watches. The weather will not calm down until probably Wednesday as far as the rain goes.
Thoughts on that occurrence Bob or am I guilty of splitting hairs?
Ha! Ha!
If it gets caught up with that Upper Low more it could move alittle more West, but I dont see that happening. Just need to get that Upper Low out of there so maybe we can wrap some rain your way. If Lee gets stronger and that Upper Low weakens then we can get some rain on the Western side.
This isn't looking good for me at all. We can handle a little tropical storm or even a hurricane....but when the storm just sits in one place and rains forever, we are going to flood. I have a new generator, plenty of gas stored...now we just sit and wait. It has been raining all day. Not heavy rain. Everybody needs to dust off their pirogues and rest up!
Melody
HH
Well it did get caught up with the Upper Low alittle more and the center reformed farther Northwest!..LOL You weren't seeing things! I am glad the NHC finally mentioned that Lee could have some Subtropical Characteristics.
We have been getting steady rain for several hours. Looks like we are going to be wet all weekend. : (
Hope you have a Happy Labor Day.....
Yep,
Getting quite a bit of wind and some very welcome steady rain. Loving it here but I'm guessing our friends east of here don't share that sentiment quite as much.
Pouring here. Have the chicken and sausage gumbo on the stove and college gameday on. Life doesn't get too much better than this.
Thanks very much for the updates. Have a great LD weekend.
Edit: Just noticed the post from Redstick east of us. Sincerely and very sorry to hear of the flooding.
I feel like it has to do with the dry air. It's making like a frontal boundary or something.
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