TS Lee and Hurricane Katia Evening Update
Bob's Official 2011 Tropical Atlantic Numbers:
16-18 Named Storms
4-6 Major Hurricanes
Areas Most At Risk This Season:
1.)Eastern U.S Coastline
2.)Central and South Florida
3.)Northern Gulf Coast from Mississippi to Western Florida Panhandle.
2011 Atlantic Current Numbers:
12 Named Storms
1 Major Hurricanes
Hurricane Katia and TS Lee is our focus this Labor Day weekend.
We continue to watch Hurricane Katia as she makes her move to the North of the Islands. Southwest shear continues to affect her today and this shear should continue during the next 48 hours. This will keep Katia in check. After 48 hours some slow strengthening is possible before Katia encounters some dry, stable air moving into the Western Atlantic. Its unlikely at this time that Katia will become a Major Hurricane. Beyond the 5 day period the forecast still remains alittle cloudy as it pertains to any affects along the East Coast. It all hinges on how Katia interacts with Lee and how strong our trough is off the East Coast. I believe if Lee is alittle stronger and farther East with its track this could pull Katia farther West. I run down all of the model runs and my thoughts in the video above.
TS Lee is now approx. 185 miles SW of the Mouth of the Mississippi River with max. winds of 45 mph. Lee continues to slowly strengthen as it remains nearly stationary with a slow North drift. Lee has entangled itself with an Upper Low to its West/Northwest. This has limited convection from building on its Western side. As long as the Upper Low is around, Lee will not strengthen quickly. The shear near Lee is favorable for strengthening during the next 48 hours and the waters are warm. There may be a small window of opportunity for Lee to become a Hurricane as this Upper Level Low weakens before landfall sometime on Sunday. Lee will move slowly off to the North and then Northeast early next week. The main threat for Lee is flooding rains, beach erosion, and coastal flooding. Power Outages are possible in the Tropical Storm Warned area as wet ground combined with gusty winds could bring down trees and powerlines. Tornadoes are also possible to the East and Northeast of the Center. For more of my thoughts on Lee please view the video above.
Hurricane Katia Satellite View:
TS Katia Official Forecast Track NHC:
TS Katia Model Runs:
TS Lee Satellite View:
TS Lee Model Runs:
Follow me on Facebook for my latest updates and breaking weather news in the tropics!