TS Lee and Hurricane Katia Evening Update

By: weatherguy03 , 10:20 PM GMT on September 02, 2011

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Bob's Official 2011 Tropical Atlantic Numbers:
16-18 Named Storms
7-9 Hurricanes
4-6 Major Hurricanes

Areas Most At Risk This Season:
1.)Eastern U.S Coastline
2.)Central and South Florida
3.)Northern Gulf Coast from Mississippi to Western Florida Panhandle.


2011 Atlantic Current Numbers:
12 Named Storms
2 Hurricanes
1 Major Hurricanes








Hurricane Katia and TS Lee is our focus this Labor Day weekend.

We continue to watch Hurricane Katia as she makes her move to the North of the Islands. Southwest shear continues to affect her today and this shear should continue during the next 48 hours. This will keep Katia in check. After 48 hours some slow strengthening is possible before Katia encounters some dry, stable air moving into the Western Atlantic. Its unlikely at this time that Katia will become a Major Hurricane. Beyond the 5 day period the forecast still remains alittle cloudy as it pertains to any affects along the East Coast. It all hinges on how Katia interacts with Lee and how strong our trough is off the East Coast. I believe if Lee is alittle stronger and farther East with its track this could pull Katia farther West. I run down all of the model runs and my thoughts in the video above.

TS Lee is now approx. 185 miles SW of the Mouth of the Mississippi River with max. winds of 45 mph. Lee continues to slowly strengthen as it remains nearly stationary with a slow North drift. Lee has entangled itself with an Upper Low to its West/Northwest. This has limited convection from building on its Western side. As long as the Upper Low is around, Lee will not strengthen quickly. The shear near Lee is favorable for strengthening during the next 48 hours and the waters are warm. There may be a small window of opportunity for Lee to become a Hurricane as this Upper Level Low weakens before landfall sometime on Sunday. Lee will move slowly off to the North and then Northeast early next week. The main threat for Lee is flooding rains, beach erosion, and coastal flooding. Power Outages are possible in the Tropical Storm Warned area as wet ground combined with gusty winds could bring down trees and powerlines. Tornadoes are also possible to the East and Northeast of the Center. For more of my thoughts on Lee please view the video above.




Hurricane Katia Satellite View:




TS Katia Official Forecast Track NHC:




TS Katia Model Runs:





TS Lee Satellite View:



TS Lee Model Runs:





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32. weatherguy03
11:44 AM GMT on September 06, 2011
Area in the Southern Gulf of Mexico already brewing this morning. We could see Maria and Nate by the end of the week. Both could cause problems for the U.S. eventually. Katia brings waves and surf for the East Coast. Tornadoes from Lee today across the Mid-Atlantic. I will have a video update tonite!
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
31. weatherguy03
1:48 AM GMT on September 06, 2011
Maybe time for a video update tomorrow?? Maybe?? Not looking very good. The tropics may be very busy, but so is my life!..LOL
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
30. weatherguy03
1:46 AM GMT on September 06, 2011
My forecast from about 7 days ago looks to verify with Katia as she is forecasted to go between North Carolina and Bermuda. Still watching to see how close she comes to Cape Cod before moving out to sea.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
29. weatherguy03
1:45 AM GMT on September 06, 2011
Flooding from Lee moves across the Appalachians, Maria could form this week and be a threat to the Islands by the weekend. This storm could come close to Florida in about 10 days. Also watching the Gulf of Mexico again later this week. A busy time in the tropics!
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
28. cjnew
2:52 AM GMT on September 05, 2011
Just kidding! :)
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27. cjnew
2:52 AM GMT on September 05, 2011
Sound the alarms!
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
26. weatherguy03
12:33 AM GMT on September 05, 2011
We could have another tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week. Stay tuned!
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
25. weatherguy03
9:39 PM GMT on September 04, 2011
Katia now a Cat 2 Hurricane. Models in much better agreement today in taking Katia between Bermuda and North Carolina and not directly impacting the U.S.. BUT there will be a long period of heavy surf and beach erosion along the East Coast this week with this slow moving storm.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
24. weatherguy03
9:39 PM GMT on September 04, 2011
Tornado Warnings from SE Louisiana to Tallahassee, FL. Tornado Watches out for this area until 11PM EDT tonite. Could see ongoing Severe Threat through the overnite due to TS Lee.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
23. weatherguy03
12:59 PM GMT on September 04, 2011
Stalled front and moisture from Lee will exacerbate Irene flooding across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast this week. Then we wait for Katia?
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
22. weatherguy03
12:56 PM GMT on September 04, 2011
Tornadoes and heavy rainfall still a problem with Lee. Tornado Watch out until 4PM CDT.

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21. weatherguy03
12:49 PM GMT on September 04, 2011
As I said a few days ago, where Lee goes, Katia goes. Latest ECMWF model has Katia coming very close to the North Carolina Outerbanks by next Saturday.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
20. cjnew
4:55 PM GMT on September 03, 2011
Lee has a big tail. why is this?! lol
I feel like it has to do with the dry air. It's making like a frontal boundary or something.
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
19. swlaaggie
3:58 PM GMT on September 03, 2011
Quoting weatherguy03:


Well it did get caught up with the Upper Low alittle more and the center reformed farther Northwest!..LOL You weren't seeing things! I am glad the NHC finally mentioned that Lee could have some Subtropical Characteristics.


Yep,

Getting quite a bit of wind and some very welcome steady rain. Loving it here but I'm guessing our friends east of here don't share that sentiment quite as much.

Pouring here. Have the chicken and sausage gumbo on the stove and college gameday on. Life doesn't get too much better than this.

Thanks very much for the updates. Have a great LD weekend.

Edit: Just noticed the post from Redstick east of us. Sincerely and very sorry to hear of the flooding.
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1032
18. Hawkeyewx
1:42 PM GMT on September 03, 2011
G'morning, Bob. It's looking like Katia's low chance of hitting the US is falling even more now that Lee is expected to move out to the northeast rather than sit around. Speaking of Lee, it sure doesn't look especially tropical with the upper low sitting over it.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1924
17. Beachfoxx
12:45 PM GMT on September 03, 2011
Morning,
We have been getting steady rain for several hours. Looks like we are going to be wet all weekend. : (

Hope you have a Happy Labor Day.....
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29384
16. weatherguy03
11:57 AM GMT on September 03, 2011
Models trending on kicking Lee out faster to the Northeast later this week. This could help push Katia away from the U.S.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
15. weatherguy03
11:53 AM GMT on September 03, 2011
Numerous tornado warning out this morning from Baton Rouge to New Orleans. This band will shift towards the Biloxi and Mobile areas later this morning into the afternoon.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
14. weatherguy03
11:40 AM GMT on September 03, 2011
Quoting weatherguy03:


If it gets caught up with that Upper Low more it could move alittle more West, but I dont see that happening. Just need to get that Upper Low out of there so maybe we can wrap some rain your way. If Lee gets stronger and that Upper Low weakens then we can get some rain on the Western side.


Well it did get caught up with the Upper Low alittle more and the center reformed farther Northwest!..LOL You weren't seeing things! I am glad the NHC finally mentioned that Lee could have some Subtropical Characteristics.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
13. HateHurricanes
1:18 AM GMT on September 03, 2011
Thanks again, Bob. We really appreciate you taking all this time for all of us! Plus, you're smart!
HH
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3080
12. RedStickWatcher
12:55 AM GMT on September 03, 2011
Bob,

This isn't looking good for me at all. We can handle a little tropical storm or even a hurricane....but when the storm just sits in one place and rains forever, we are going to flood. I have a new generator, plenty of gas stored...now we just sit and wait. It has been raining all day. Not heavy rain. Everybody needs to dust off their pirogues and rest up!

Melody
Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 312
11. CosmicEvents
12:43 AM GMT on September 03, 2011
Thank you Bob once again for a well explained and reasoned forecast.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5591
10. weatherguy03
11:02 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Quoting swlaaggie:
The 18z GFS looks like it noses Lee up into just barely east of SW La. a bit before moving back out and then east. Hope that scenario plays out because we could use some rain.

Thoughts on that occurrence Bob or am I guilty of splitting hairs?


If it gets caught up with that Upper Low more it could move alittle more West, but I dont see that happening. Just need to get that Upper Low out of there so maybe we can wrap some rain your way. If Lee gets stronger and that Upper Low weakens then we can get some rain on the Western side.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
9. weatherguy03
10:59 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Quoting cjnew:
Yeah I figured, so if its really bad I just won't go. :) who needs school anyways.


Ha! Ha!
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8. cjnew
10:51 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Yeah I figured, so if its really bad I just won't go. :) who needs school anyways.
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
7. swlaaggie
10:50 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
The 18z GFS looks like it noses Lee up into just barely east of SW La. a bit before moving back out and then east. Hope that scenario plays out because we could use some rain.

Thoughts on that occurrence Bob or am I guilty of splitting hairs?
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1032
6. weatherguy03
10:42 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Quoting cjnew:
Sounds good. I'm just worried about how bad the rain will be when I drive back to pensacola from panama city on Monday.
I'll be watching! As long as it doesn't blow up ill be ok in the rain lol


Gonna be alot of rain and gusty winds so I would be careful. That entire area is under Flood Watches. The weather will not calm down until probably Wednesday as far as the rain goes.
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5. cjnew
10:40 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Sounds good. I'm just worried about how bad the rain will be when I drive back to pensacola from panama city on Monday.
I'll be watching! As long as it doesn't blow up ill be ok in the rain lol
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4. seflagamma
10:36 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Thanks Bob!
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3. weatherguy03
10:34 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Quoting cjnew:
I can't watch the video yet. But I was wondering if there is a chance the storm won't make it all the way to the Louisiana coast before it begins moving east?


Nothing to shunt it quickly to the East, so its gonna be a slow move to the North/Northeast. Can't see it moving to far East. Its destined for Southeastern Louisiana/Southern Miss coasts. Minimal chance.
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2. swlaaggie
10:34 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
Great update Bob. As always, thanks.

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1. cjnew
10:31 PM GMT on September 02, 2011
I can't watch the video yet. But I was wondering if there is a chance the storm won't make it all the way to the Louisiana coast before it begins moving east?
Thanks Bob!
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779

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