January 2-3, 2014 Winter Storm

By: weatherenthusiast1 , 5:01 PM GMT on January 02, 2014

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I will be posting forecasts, analysis and observations of the impending storm below- check back for details!

Timeframe:
Begins between 7-9PM Thursday
Ends by 12PM Friday

Impacts:
4-8 inches: Philadelphia and immediate suburbs
Overall: Less south and east, more north and west

Overview:



Latest model guidance has come in wetter with ~0.5 inches of QPF

Latest short range (RUC) supports these global models:



Snowfall Maps (to be taken with a grain of salt...)

Earl Barker NAM: Link

Instant Weather Maps NAM Snowfall: Link

Instant Weather Maps: GFS Snowfall: Link

Latest CMC-REG:
Philadelphia:

New York:


Note Philadelphia and NYC Snow Accumulations are nearly equal. This is reflected in NWS of 6-8 stretching from just north of Philadelphia through NYC. NYC has a slightly better potential to reach the top of this range, but don't believe the fact anyone who says NYC will likely get more than Philadelphia. QPF totals will be about the same, and ratios might be slightly better up north.

Just saw map for 6-10 inches north of Philadelphia... TOO MUCH!!! Not supported by any model! 9 and 10 inch amounts will be ISOLATED.

Update 6PM:
New GEM-REG model comes in again with same snow accumulations for NYC and Philadelphia.

RUC continues to print 0.5-0.6 inches for I-95 through NYC and East.

Hi-Res HRRR prints out at least 4-6 inches with still more storm left to go.


RUC prints out 6-8 for entire storm:


Update 11:30PM:
Generally 1-4 inches region wide so far with 3 inches in Montgomery County. Expect another 3-6 inches overnight.

Philadelphia Northeast Airport has over performed in terms of QPF so far- take a look at this chart:


Please see my thoughts annotated on radar image below:

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About weatherenthusiast1

The purpose of this blog is to give the public in the Mid Atlantic region the background behind the forecasts.