12-29-12 New Year's Eve Snowstorm

By: weatherenthusiast1 , 10:17 PM GMT on December 28, 2012

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Official NWS Forecast:


Current SE Radar Image:


Update 12AM

The models have trended downward with the QPF (precipitation) and thus, a lot of the predictions with 2-4 inches in the Philly Metro in my opinion will not verify at this time.

I believe the I-95 corridor will be the battle between rain and snow. Take a look at this image from the Canadian model:



Definitely not much heavy snow across the Philly metro. Take a look at the RUC, a short term model.



This shows rain well into the Philly suburbs. Yes, this is not the optimal range for these models but it highlights the precip type issues I think we will see tomorrow. The highest amounts of precipitation will occur towards the coast, but the coast will also not see all snow.

Finally, take a look at this link: Link

This shows the SREF ensemble plume for total snow. This shows the average of the models is a little over an inch of snow, with around 1.5 inches for Trenton. The airport gets less than inch. Given these trends, here is my forecast for the Philly metro:

Link

1AM Nowcast:

Models are just a tad too slow with the precipitation timing. Temperatures are about as forecasted. Look at the picture below- can you see how there will be issues with accumulating snow when temperatures are above freezing?



I just saw a Final Call map with 2 to 4 inches across the Philly Metro with 4-7 across NY to SNE from a professional meteorologist. THIS WILL NOT VERIFY!!!!!

Also, the Weather Channel has 3-6 for areas west of I-95, with accumulations east of I-95- again NOT GOING TO VERIFY!!! (see below)



Take a look at this model run- this is almost at the end of the storm- it is over for Philly. It makes my lower totals seem too high still.



Another short range model: HRRR



Finally, the Euro has come in dry, with the freezing line coming west of I-95. If these trends continue, I will again decrease snow totals. As always, we do not hype but provide only our view of the situation as we get new information.

Given the data above, there is no change to my forecast. A general 1-3 inches should be expected, with the immediate North and west counties surrounding Philly more toward 1 or 2 inches.

8AM Nowcast

RAP Short Range model shows some possibility for a brief period of heavier snow later today:



HRRR Snow Forecast is in line with my thinking- a little bit high as usual.



No changes at this time- even the Weather Channel has changed their map to match mine!!!

Latest HRRR- Almost exactly mirror image of my forecast:




9AM Update

This should worry some forecasters who are still forecasting 2-4 inches east of I-95:



South Jersey will have no accumulations!

9:45AM Update

NWS...waiting to get with current trends- and this is with 11:1 ratios which will not happen when the entire column is above freezing when the precipitation is falling:



According to Dual-Pol radar data, current radar returns in South Jersey are most likely rain or rain snow mix- not all snow. This is supported by the wet bulb temps (below).



Map

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About weatherenthusiast1

The purpose of this blog is to give the public in the Mid Atlantic region the background behind the forecasts.