Forecast for 1/21/11 Snowstorm
Philadelphia and its Immediate North and west suburbs have started to mix with sleet. Next few hours should feature heaviest precipitation. All precipitation moves out by 12-1PM. Storm is moving faster than expected.
540 Thickness has moved above Trenton, reflecting this change to sleet/freezing rain. Surface temperatures should remain below freezing making travel slick.
Above radar images shows concerns about collapsing band over central PA.
Update 4AM: All signs are looking great for good snow in the area- maybe even more than NY?
Impressive snow output from 6Z NAM: Best run yet...almost in 6 inch range in Philly. It picks up on the higher reflectivities also shown in short range models.
Expect at least 0.4 inches of QPF to come...as I remarked earlier, Philly area is in best region for most precipitation:
The snow is coming in fast- get ready for a full breakdown!!
First the basics:
1. Timing: Starting after 12AM, lasting until early afternoon (2-3PM end)
2. Snow Amounts:
Philly: 1-3 inches
Near Suburbs (Montco, Bucks, etc): 2-4 inches- Closer to city more towards 1.5-2 inch amounts, Doylestown more toward 3-4 inches
Far Suburbs (Lehigh Valley): 3-6+ inches
Map link- Click here For general depiction of areas of heaviest snowfall, icing concerns.
Precipitation is moving in as scheduled- should begin around 12AM-1AM.
1. The changeover will definitely happen in the city of Philadelphia- icing is a significant concern.
2. QPF is best around the Philadelphia metro, into central Jersey- though snow ratios will be higher around NYC, models point to less precipitation for them.
Here are sref images to illustrate #2:
Will continue to update throughout the night with latest data/obs.
Updated: 1:10 PM GMT on January 21, 2012
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Overview: Snow Events 1/19-1/20 and 1/21
I will continue to update this post throughout the night- mainly focusing on the snow tonight and briefly commenting on the prospects for snow Saturday.
The RUC Short Term Model continues to hint at some enhanced snowfall over the Philly region in the early morning hours:
The current radar returns are not bad considering we were only forecasted for flurries tonight.
Updated: 12:40 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
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