NHC Forecast Validation through September

By: txngeo, 3:50 PM GMT on October 01, 2010

Here are my updated forecast validation numbers through September. Overall, the NHC is hitting the 2/3 forecast radius right at 2/3 of the time. The last three storm have really lowered the overall numbers.  For my methodology, please see my first blog entry.............. Points... In.... % inAlex           114      86.... 75.4TD 2         &nb...

How's the NHC forecast for this year?

By: txngeo, 10:41 PM GMT on September 25, 2010

Hi All, my first foray into blogging.... so why not choose something uncontroversial like NHC forecasts! My intent is to provide data and not opinion since I am not a met. However, living in a hurricane area makes me curious as to how good the NHC is doing.There are two ways to look at the NHC forecast cones as you can read on their website. The general way to to see the actual track plotted through the cone to see if the points fall in. This method misses any t...

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