Tropicfreak's Central Virginia Weather Blog

Light Snow Possible Tonight!

By: tropicfreak, 3:56 AM GMT on January 15, 2012

This will be brief, but we do have a shot of seeing some light snow tonight as a clipper swings to our south. Best chance is SW of Richmond but a few could sneak into the area late tonight into early tomorrow. Snow is already being reported in Farmville, haven't heard anything from Blackstone or Southern VA yet. The temperatures are in the mid to upper 20s, plenty cold enough for snow, and with dew points in the upper teens, we should have little to no issues with dry air, and precip evaporating before it hits the ground. I do believe that parts of south-central VA could pick up a dusting of snow if it's heavy enough, but accumulations look better towards the SW portion of the state. Give a holler on my blog if you do see any flakes tonight. Norfolk may also see snow tonight, their first of the season, and parts of southern VA haven't seen snow yet.... This threat for light snow will end by daybreak tomorrow. Keep your fingers crossed snow lovers!

Have a great weekend!
TF

Snow Winter Weather

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Wintry Mix Today; Wednesday/Thursday Soaker; Arctic Blast Late Week

By: tropicfreak, 1:40 AM GMT on January 10, 2012

Good evening all. I hope you all had a great day, despite the cold, wet, and white day for some of you. Areas NW of Richmond saw a wintry mix all day, and picked up anywhere from a dusting to around 2", with the totals increasing the further north you went. The roads aren't looking too bad, but up in northern VA, which picked up 1-2", the roads are a little bit slushy so if anyone plans on traveling up there, exercise a little caution. Places such as Orange, Louisa, Charlottesville, Goochland, Montpelier, Gum Spring, Mineral, and even Ashland saw a little snow today. For the metro, it was mostly a cold rain, with a few ice pellets mixing in as temperatures were in the upper 30s, which is a bit too warm for snow to fall. After seeing the photos of snow on the Facebook weather fan pages I feel like going to a corner and weep, that rain/snow line came within 30 miles of reaching the metro area. If the system were stronger, then we would see the temperatures drop quicker and possibly get in on a little snow, but it was weak... oh well, it will be our turn soon. Things don't exactly go our way here in Central VA when it comes to winter weather.

The system that brought us a cold rain, and for some of us snow, is now offshore. The only areas that are seeing any snow at this time are Delaware and southern Jersey, otherwise the low will pull off into the Atlantic. After morning lows dipping to around the freezing mark tomorrow, we will quickly warm up, along with partly cloudy skies, as highs should reach 60°. It will be a dry day in between two wet days. Wednesday morning clouds will build ahead out of a storm system moving through the interior south, that will bring us a good amount of rain for the 2nd half of Wednesday. After morning lows dipping to the mid 30s, it will warm up to around the mid 50s. The rain should arrive by early Wednesday afternoon, and it will pick up throughout the evening and overnight hours, and will continue through the 1st half of Thursday. By the lunch hour though, the rain will begin to taper off, followed by clearing skies with highs in the lower 60s. Late Thursday evening though, an arctic front will move through, ushering in some very cold air, as Friday morning temperatures will be at the freezing mark, and we could even see a little light snow as a result of the front that moved through. It will remain cold Friday with highs being hard pressed to hit 40, and same goes for Saturday with morning lows in the mid-20s. During the weekend, a new storm system will be taking shape in the Gulf, and shortly thereafter could form into an elongated area of low pressure, possibly bringing us a moderate snow for us Sunday into Monday (Martin Luther King Day). It's still a week away so this will change several times before it gets here. If the models still show this Friday/Saturday, I'll begin to watch this more closely, until then, I'll keep an eye on it. A pattern change could take place in the near future, with NAO forecasted to go negative, along with an extremely negative AO, and a neutral PNA. All that will come together for a colder and possibly snowier pattern in the next week or so. I'll keep monitoring it.

Have a great week!
TF



Cold Snap Winter Weather Rain Snow

Updated: 1:44 AM GMT on January 10, 2012

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Rain Tomorrow w/ a Little Winter Weather??; Wednesday Washout; Next Cold Air Plunge

By: tropicfreak, 9:26 PM GMT on January 08, 2012

Good afternoon all! I hope you have enjoyed your weekend, and those gorgeous temperatures. Highs yesterday topped out in the upper 60s to even around 70, bigger warm-up than anticipated (originally thought to top out at 60) so I hope you salvaged that. Today is a bit cooler, highs in the mid 50s, but still enjoyable, so take advantage of this as it will begin to turn colder later this week.

This week will be quite topsy-turvey as far as temperatures go. After highs in the 50s today, morning lows tomorrow will bottom out in the low-mid 30s. The rain is expected to arrive around daybreak, but at onset, it MIGHT be cold enough for us to see some ice pellets or a few flakes mixing in, but the best chance is NW of the metro. Anything frozen that does fall tomorrow morning will changeover to all rain mid-day. The NW winds will keep the temperatures in check, with highs only in the lower 40s. The rain should taper off Monday afternoon/evening, and lows will dip to around the freezing mark Tuesday morning. Tuesday will remain dry, with highs back into the mid 50s. An area of low pressure moving out of the deep south will travel to our NW, bringing us a good all-day rain for Wednesday with highs around 60. The bulk of the rain should move out late-evening but there could be a few leftover showers for Thursday morning, but it should be clearing out with highs similar to that of Wednesday. An arctic front will move through late Thursday evening, ushering in some very cold air. There could even be a few flurries for Friday morning with lows around the 30° mark. Highs Friday, quite chilly and windy due to the pressure gradient of the area of low pressure in the Great Lakes, around mid 40s. Saturday will remain chilly as well, with morning lows in the 20s. Models have been suggesting a possible moderate snowfall for Saturday yesterday, but the runs today have completely dropped the idea, as the storm forms way too far east for any of the east coast to see anything. Still something to keep an eye on though as it could change, knowing it's 6 days away. I know this may sound a bit ridiculous, but what the GFS is showing around the 18th-21st is intriguing me. It has been consistently been showing a storm around that time frame for the past few days. Track and precipitation type obviously doesn't matter at this point. All that matters is that the GFS is showing A storm for that time frame. Definitely something to keep an eye on.

Long range, as far as telecommunications go, a pattern change may occur possibly within the next week or so. NAO isn't forcasted to go negative until next week, as well as the AO. The PNA will sit around neutral. Those aren't the most ideal conditions for a big snow, but it is doable, and we could fit in a good snow under those circumstances. I'm a bit hesitant to go with the models on telecommunications as they have been performing poorly past 1 week out. There is more evidence put out there this time that there will likely be a pattern change in the near future, allowing cold and snowy conditions for the eastern US, so it's worth watching.

I'll be back with an update tomorrow.
Have a great rest of the weekend!

TF

Rain Cold Snap Winter Weather

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First Flakes of the Season Last Night; Wet Weather Early Next Week; Next Arctic Blast

By: tropicfreak, 10:51 PM GMT on January 05, 2012

Well snow lovers, you can now breathe a sigh of relief... that is if you saw some flakes last night. A batch of light snow flurries moved through the area late last night, and dropped some light snow in most of the metro. This was all from an upper level disturbance that came from the midwest. I saw some myself, it was very light but consistent. It never accumulated as the precipitation was too light and temperatures were above freezing at the time anyway, but it was neat to watch it fall. The airport also reported a trace of snow. Now that we've got our first snow out of the way, the question bears: When is our next chance for winter weather? Hate to say it but it doesn't look like we will see any for at least another week, if not, more than a week.

After a short lived but frigid cold snap, with wind chills in the teens and 20s, temperatures are on the increasing trend as we head into the weekend and early next week. Tonight will be the last night we will see sub-freezing low temperatures for at least another week. After temperatures bottom out around 30 Friday morning, expect a nice warmup with highs topping out at 60°. It will also remain that way throughout the weekend, and it looks pretty decent as we stay dry. That will all change though Monday, as another disturbance passes to our south bringing us a chance at a few showers, with highs in the upper 40s, lows in the mid 30s. Tuesday the same story except it will be just a little warmer with highs in the mid 50s, with a break late that evening. Wednesday looks to be a washout as an area of low pressure originating in the Tennessee Valley, scoots on by to the northwest, otherwise known as an Appalachian Runner. We will see periods of rain, potentially heavy at times. As it begins to move north cold air begins to wrap around, and this is when it gets tricky. For now it appears to be all rain, but if the track shifts SE, then we will have a better chance at seeing some wintry precipitation. At this point the track is somewhat uncertain, but we will have a much clearer picture later on this week and this weekend. Regardless, it does look like we could see quite a bit of rain out of that, perhaps over an inch in some spots looking at some of the latest computer guidance. It could change though but it bears watching. Thursday it will dry out, with highs in the upper 50s. However, Friday, as a strong arctic cold front moves through the area, it will usher in some more frigid air similar to what we experienced earlier this week. Once it moves on by, we could potentially see some of the white stuff, but it's over a week out so it can and it will change between now and then. Keep your fingers crossed! Looking into long-range, we should begin to transition into a colder and perhaps snowier pattern over the next 2 weeks, as the AO drops to negative levels, as well as NAO trending to negative, and a neutral PNA. Certainly will be interesting to watch as we head into the latter part of January into February.

Have a great rest of the week!
TF

Wind Rain Winter Weather Cold Snap

Updated: 10:53 PM GMT on January 05, 2012

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About tropicfreak

Live in Richmond VA. I'm a recent high school graduate who is looking to pursue a career in meteorology. Winter storms and the tropics fascinate me.

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